In the early months of the pandemic, chef José Andrés circulated two photos that have come to symbolize a modern American food crisis.
在疫情的最初几个月，厨师何塞·安德烈斯传出了两张标志着现代美国食物危机的照片。
The first shows mountains of potatoes that have been left to rot in a field in Idaho.
第一张是爱达荷州成堆成堆被丢弃的腐烂土豆。
The restaurants and cafeterias and stadiums that had consumed them were shuttered during the pandemic.
那些原本食用它们的餐厅，咖啡厅和体育馆全都在疫情期间关门了。
The second shows a devastating scene outside of the San Antonio food bank.
第二张是圣安东尼奥市食物银行外灾难性的一幕。
Thousands of carloads of people lined up, waiting for food with not enough supply to go around.
成千上万载满了人的汽车正因粮食短缺而排队等候食物。
"How is it possible these two photos exist at the same time, in the most prosperous and technologically advanced moment in our history," tweeted Andrés.
“这两张照片怎么可能同时存在呢，而且是在历史上最繁荣，科技最发达的时代。”安德烈斯在发文时尖锐地问到。
In the months after the photos were published, the crisis got worse.
照片公开后的几个月，危机变得更严重了。
Billions of pounds of potatoes and other fresh produce were chucked by American farmers.
数十亿磅的土豆和其他新鲜食材全部被美国农民们丢进了垃圾堆。
At the same time, food banks all over the country were reporting demand increases and 40 percent were facing critical shortfalls.
与此同时，全国范围内的食物银行都在报告需求的增长，其中40%面临严重短缺。
Outside the US, especially in the Middle East and throughout Southeastern Africa, COVID-19 was paralyzing food systems that were already vulnerable.
美国之外，尤其是中东和非洲东南部地区，新冠病毒使原本已经很脆弱的粮食系统全面瘫痪。
Oxfam has predicted that by the end of 2020 12,000 people per day could die of hunger related to COVID.
据乐施会预测，到2020年底，平均每天可能会有12000人死于疫情引发的饥荒。
That's more than the highest daily mortality rate recorded so far.
这比有史以来记载的最高日死亡率还要高。
But what's worse and what's much more concerning to all of us is that
然而更糟糕，也更值得我们关心的是，
COVID is just one of many major disruptions that have been predicted in the years and decades ahead.
根据预测，新冠病毒只是未来数十年可能发生的众多重大灾难的其中之一。
More chronic and complex than the pressures of COVID are the pressures of climate change.
比新冠病毒更缓慢，且更复杂的是气候变化带来的压力。
And those of you who live in California have seen this on your farms.
住在加利福利亚的人已经在你们的农场上目睹了。
You've seen withering heat and drought and fires disrupt avocado and almond and citrus and strawberry farms.
你们目睹了高温、干旱和大火大肆破坏了牛油果、杏仁、柑橘和草莓农场。
This summer, we saw the devastating impacts of storms on corn and soy farms.
这个夏天，我们目睹了沙尘暴对玉米和大豆田的毁灭性影响。
I've seen the various pressures of drought, heat, flooding, superstorms, invasive insects, bacterial blight,
我见过干旱、高温、洪水、飓风、入侵性昆虫、细菌性疾病、
shifting seasons and weather volatility from Washington to Florida, and from Guatemala to Australia.
换季和天气动荡带来的种种压力，从华盛顿到佛罗里达，从危地马拉到澳大利亚。
The upshot is this. Climate change is becoming something we can taste.
结论就是，气候变化正成为一种我们可以亲身感知的东西。
This is a kitchen-table issue in the literal sense.
从本质上来说，就是一个餐桌问题。
The International Panel on Climate Change has predicted that by mid-century
国际气候变化专门委员会已经预测，到本世纪中期，
the world may reach a threshold of global warming beyond which current agricultural practices can no longer support large human civilizations.
世界将有可能达到一个全球变暖的门槛，到时候目前的农业生产将无法继续支撑巨大的人类文明。
The USDA scientist Jerry Hatfield put it to me this way: the single biggest threat of climate change is the collapse of food systems.
美国农业部科学家杰瑞·哈特菲尔德这么解释：气候变化带来的最大威胁是粮食系统的崩溃。
The reality we face, one that was exposed by those mountains of potatoes and the cars lined up during the pandemic, is that our supply chains are antiquated.
我们所面对的现实，一个已经被疫情期间成堆的土豆和成群结伴排队等候的汽车暴露的现实，就是我们的供应链已经过时了。
Our food systems have not been designed to adapt to major disruptions or preempt them.
我们的粮食系统不是为了适应重大破坏而设计的。
Addressing this challenge as much as any other is going to define our progress in the coming century.
如何应对这一挑战以及其他任何挑战，都将定义我们在新世纪的进程。
But there's good news. And the good news is that farmers and entrepreneurs and academics are radically rethinking national and global food systems.
但好消息是，农民、企业家和学者们都在重新思考全国和全球的粮食系统。
They are marrying principles of old-world agroecology and state-of-the-art technologies to create what I call a third way to our food future.
他们把旧世界的农业生态学理论与最先进的技术结合，创造了我称之为发展我们的粮食未来的第三种途径。
We're going to see radical changes in what we grow and how we eat in the coming decades,
接下来几十年，我们将会看到我们种植的品种和饮食方式
as these environmental and population and public health pressures intensify.
将会随着环境、人口和公共卫生压力的增大而发生根本性的改变。
I studied these changes for my book "The Fate of Food: What We'll Eat in a Bigger, Hotter, Smarter World."
我为我的书《食物的命运：在一个更大、更热、更先进的世界里我们吃什么》进行了相关研究。
I traveled for five years into the lands and the minds and the machines that are shaping the future of food.
我旅行了五年，深入了解那些塑造食物未来的土地、思想和机器。
My travels took me through 15 countries and 18 states,
我走过15个国家和18个州，
from apple orchards in Wisconsin to tiny cornfields in Kenya, to massive Norwegian fish farms and computerized foodscapes in Shanghai.
从威斯康星州的苹果园到肯尼亚的小玉米田，再到挪威的大型养鱼场，以及上海的计算机化食品景观。
I investigated new ideas, like robotics and CRISPR and vertical farms.
我研究新的概念，比如机器人、基因编辑技术和垂直农场。
And old ideas, like edible insects and permaculture and ancient plants.
也研究老的点子，比如可食用昆虫和永生的古老植物。
I began to see the emergence of this third way to food production.
我开始看到粮食生产的第三种途径的浮现。
A synthesis of the traditional and the radically new.
一种传统与现代的融合。
There's a growing controversy about the best path to future food security in the US.
发展未来食品安全的最好途径在美国正引发越来越多的争议。
Food is ripe for reinvention, Bill Gates has proclaimed.
比尔·盖茨宣称，粮食产业已经成熟到可以对其进行重塑了。
Huge flows of investment are funding new methods of climate-smart and high-tech agriculture.
大量投资正在为气候智能和高科技农业的新措施提供资金。
But many sustainable food advocates bristle at this idea of reinvention.
但许多可持续食品倡导者对这种重塑的想法感到愤怒。
They want food deinvented. They argue for a return to preindustrial and pre-green revolution, biodynamic and organic farming.
他们想要反重塑食物。他们主张回到工业革命和绿色革命之前的生物动力和有机农业。
To which skeptics inevitably respond, "Nice, but does it scale?
怀疑论者不可避免地回应“好是好，但是它的规模能扩展吗？
Sure, a return to traditional farming methods could produce better food, but can it produce enough food that's affordable?"
回归传统农业生产方法自然可以生产出更好的食物，但这样能生产出量足够多，且价格低廉的食物吗？”
The rift between the reinvention camp and the deinvention camp has existed for decades. But now it's a raging battle.
重塑和反重塑两大阵营之间的分歧已经存在几十年了。但现在已经上升成了一场激烈的斗争。
One side covets the past, the other side covets the future and as someone observing this from the outside,
一方觊觎过去，另一方觊觎未来，作为一个外部观察者，
I began to wonder, why must it be so binary? Can't there be a synthesis of the two approaches?
我逐渐开始思考，为什么非要这样非此即彼呢？就不能把两种方法合二为一吗？

Our challenge is to borrow from the wisdom of the ages, and from our most advanced science, to forge this third way.
我们的挑战是从历史中汲取智慧，并结合发达的现代科技，来开辟第三种途径。
One that allows us to improve and scale our harvests, while restoring rather than degrading the underlying web of life.
一种允许我们改进并扩大收成，同时恢复而不是降低我们赖以生存的生命之网的新途径。
I belong to neither camp. I'm a failed vegan and a lapsed vegetarian, and a terrible backyard farmer.
我不属于任何一个阵营。我是个失败的素食主义者，还非常不擅长管理自家的菜园。
If I'm honest, I will keep trying at this, but I may fail.
老实说，我还是会在这方面继续努力，但还是可能失败。
But I'm hell-bent on hope, and if my travels have taught me anything, it's that there's good reason for hope.
但我对此满怀希望，如果我的旅行经历教会了我什么事，那就是永远有充分的理由去希望。
Plenty of solutions are merging that can help build sustainable, resilient food systems.
大量的能帮助建立可持续发展且有弹性的食物系统的解决方案正在融合。
Even if we can't rely on a critical mass of backyard-farming vegetarians to do this on their own, from the ground up.
即使我们不能依赖大量的素食主义者们从头开始在自家后院种菜。
Let's start with artificial intelligence and robotics.
我们从人工智能和机器人说起。
Jorge Heraud is a Peruvian-born engineer who now lives in Silicon Valley,
豪尔赫·赫罗是一名在秘鲁出生，现居硅谷的工程师，
and his company developed a robotic weeder named See and Spray, and I went to Arkansas to see the maiden voyage of See and Spray.
他的公司研发出了一种叫“边看边喷”的除草机器人，我去阿肯色州看了“边看边喷”的处女秀。
And I was half expecting a battalion of C3PO-style robots to march into the fields with pincer hands to pluck the weeds.
我原本期待的是一个营的《星球大战》斯瑞皮欧式机器人进军田野，用它们钳子式的手除草。
And instead, I found this. A tractor with a big, white hoop skirt off the back of it.
然而我看到的却是一个后面拖着巨大白色裙撑的拖拉机。
And inside that hoop skirt are 24 cameras that use computer vision to see the ground beneath and to distinguish between the plants and the weeds.
裙撑里面有24个摄像头，利用计算机视觉技术观察地面，区分植物和杂草。
And to deploy with sniper-like precision these tiny jets of concentrated fertilizer, or herbicide, that incinerate the baby weeds.
并如狙击手般精准部署这些装有浓缩肥料或除草剂的微型喷药器，把杂草扼杀在摇篮里。
I learned how robotics can end the practice of broadcast spraying chemicals across millions of acres of land
于是我了解到机器人是如何终结了在数百万亩地上无差别的农药喷洒方式，
and how we can reduce the use of herbicides by up to 90 percent.
以及我们如何能减少高达90%的除草剂使用。
But the bigger picture is even more exciting. Intelligent machines can treat plants individually,
而更大的蓝图更振奋人心。智能机器能对植物进行逐一处理，
applying not just herbicides but fungicides and insecticides and fertilizers on a plant-by-plant, rather than field-by-field basis.
不仅可以使用除草剂，还可以使用杀菌剂、杀虫剂和肥料，对植物进行一对一处理，而不是一块田一块田的广式喷洒。
So that eventually, this kind of hyperspecific farming can allow for more diversity and intercropping on fields.
久而久之，这种超精准耕作能给农田创造更多的作物多样性和间作。
And big farms can begin to mimic natural systems and improve soil health.
大农场可以开始模拟自然系统并改善土壤健康。
Heraud is the embodiment of third-way thinking, right?
赫罗体现的不正是第三种途径吗？
Robots, he told me, don't have to remove us from nature, they can bring us closer to it, they can restore it.
他告诉我，机器人不必非得将我们从自然中分离，它们可以拉近并修复我们与自然之间的关系。
Increasing crop diversity will be crucial to building resilient food systems.
增加作物多样性对于建立有弹性的粮食系统关重要。
And so will decentralizing agriculture so that when farmers in one region are disrupted, the others around, they can keep growing.
同时还可以进行农业去中心化，这样就算一个地区的农民们被迫中断耕作，周边地区的其他农民仍可以继续耕作。
The rise of vertical farms, like this farm, built inside a former steel mill in Newark, New Jersey, can play a key role in decentralizing agriculture.
垂直农场的兴起，比如这个建在新泽西州纽瓦克一家废弃钢铁厂里的农场，能在农业去中心化中起到关键作用。
Aeroponic farms use a tiny fraction of the water that is used in in-ground farms.
航空农场的用水量只占地下农场用水量的极小一部分。
And they can grow food much faster, about 40 percent faster.
而它们的粮食种植速度却快了差不多40%。
And when located in and near cities, where the food is consumed, they eliminate a huge amount of trucking and food waste.
当它们位于靠近消费粮食的城市的时候，可以大幅度减少运输和食物浪费。
It struck me at first as creepy in kind of a "Silent Running" way that we'd be growing our future fruits and vegetables inside, without soil or sun.
起初，它以一种“悄无声息的运行”的方式令我毛骨悚然，也就是说，未来我们将在没有土壤和阳光的室内种植水果和蔬菜。
And after weeks of spending time in these plant factories,
但在这些植物工厂呆了几周后，
I began to see it as oddly, almost perfectly natural to deliver the plants only and exactly what they need, with zero herbicides and radical efficiency.
我开始看到它们能够神奇地，甚至可以说是完全自然，且恰到好处地给植物输送它们所需要的养分，不需要使用除草剂，而且效率惊人。
Here again, we see innovators borrowing from, and perhaps even elevating the wisdom of natural ecosystems.
再一次，我们看到了创新者们借鉴，甚至是改进自然生态系统的智慧。
Developments in plant-based and alternative meats are also profoundly hopeful.
植物肉和肉类替代品方面的发展也让人充满希望。
And they follow a similar trend toward local, resilient, low-carbon protein production.
它们朝着一个相似的趋势发展，也就是本地化、弹性化、低碳蛋白化的生产趋势。
Consumers are excited about this, and during the pandemic, we've seen a 250 percent increase in demand for alternative meats.
消费者对此很兴奋，疫情期间，我们看到了肉类替代品高达250%的需求增长。
A study by the Journal of Clinical Nutrition found that the participants who were eating the plant-based proteins
临床营养杂志的一项研究表明，参与者中吃植物性蛋白质的人，
saw a drop in their cholesterol levels, in their weight and eventually, a drop in their risk of heart disease.
他们的胆固醇含量、体重、患心脏病的风险都有所降低。
The potential environmental benefits of plant-based meats are astounding.
素肉的潜在环境效益令人震惊。
And there's even potential in lab-grown or cell-based meats.
甚至连培植肉或者说试管肉都充满发展潜力。
Uma Valeti fed me my first plate of lab-grown duck breast, harvested fresh from a bioreactor.
乌玛·瓦莱蒂给我品尝了我人生第一盘实验室培植的鸭肉。
It had been grown from a small sampling of cells taken from muscle tissue and fat and connective tissues, which is exactly what we eat when we eat meat.
那是从生物反应器中新鲜培植出来的，由从肌肉组织、脂肪和结缔组织中提取的一小部分细胞生长而成，也就是我们吃肉时真正所吃的东西。
This lab-grown or cell-based duck meat has very little threat of bacterial contamination, it's about 85 percent lower CO2 emissions associated with it.
这种实验室培植或者说试管鸭肉几乎没有细胞污染的威胁，与之相关的二氧化碳排放也减少了约85％。
Eventually it can be grown like those crops inside vertical farms in decentralized facilities that aren't vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions.
久而久之，它可以像那些垂直农场上去中心化设施里的玉米一样不会轻易受供应链破坏的影响。
Valeti started out as a cardiologist, who understood that doctors have been developing human and animal tissues in laboratories for decades.
瓦莱蒂是一名心脏病学专家，他深知科研人员已经在实验室研发人类和动物组织几十年了。
He was inspired as much by that as he was by a 1931 quote from Winston Churchill that says,
那些科研以及1931年温斯顿·丘吉尔所说的一句话都使他深受启发，
"We shall escape the absurdity of growing the whole chicken in order to eat the breast or the wing, by growing them separately in suitable mediums."
“我们应该摒弃为了吃鸡胸肉或鸡翅而养整只鸡的荒谬方法，而要以在适当介质中分开培育的方法取而代之。”
Like Heraud, Valeti is a quintessential third-way thinker.
和赫罗一样，瓦莱蒂是一个精明的第三种途径思考者。
He's reimagined an old idea using new technology, to usher in a solution whose time has come.
他利用新科技重新构想了旧点子，开辟了一种新的解决办法，也是时候这么干了。
I've met with dozens of farmers and entrepreneurs and engineers who emulate third-way thinking, all over the world.
我见过几十个农民、企业家和工程师，正在全世界范围内效仿第三种途径的思考方式。
They're using modern breeding tools like CRISPR to develop nutritious heirloom crops that can withstand drought and heat.
他们在利用现代育种工具，比如基因编辑技术，开发有营养且可以承受干旱和高温的祖传作物。
They're using AI to make aquaculture sustainable. They're finding ways to eliminate food waste.
他们利用人工智能实现可持续水产养殖，并在寻找方法解决食物浪费问题。
They are scaling up conservation agriculture and managed grazing.
他们正在扩大保护性农业和管理放牧。
And they're reviving ancient plants, and they're recycling sewage and gray water to develop a drought-proof water supply.
同时恢复古老的植物，回收污水和废水，为抗旱供水。
The upshot is this: Human innovation that marries old and new approaches to food production can,
结论就是，我相信，结合了新旧食物生产方法的人类创新能够，
and I believe, will usher in this third way and redefine sustainable food on a grand scale.
也将会开辟这第三种途径，并在大范围内重新定义可持续食品。