为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(3)
日期:2020-08-30 13:11

(单词翻译:单击)

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中英文本

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From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities tumbled 40%, measured in dollars.
从2011年早期到2016年年初,按美元计算,股市暴跌了40%y.a;Uk|hqm-=-yAR
For U.S. investors, returns comprise two moving parts:
对于美国投资者来说,回报率包括两个变化的部分:
the trajectory of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys.
以本国货币计算的股价轨迹,以及衡量人民币或巴西雷亚尔兑美元的汇率dlid=e%m&c*[;
A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline,
汇率下跌助长了长达五年的跌势,
a reversal in their currencies' fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016,
始于2016年的货币财富逆转推动了85%爆炸式增长,
and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.
市场从1月份的高点下跌了20%多,其中约三分之一是由于货币再次贬值造成的p|ImR#j(aG#7Ah
Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors risks to be greatly exaggerated.
看好新兴市场的人认为该行业的风险被严重夸大了9HUuZ(q-TM~^AR#
For a disastrous spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives:
出现这种螺旋式上升,一个国家必须与三个负面因素斗争:
huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit.
巨大的外债(通常是美元),缺乏外汇储备以及贸易逆差|~yjxhCms.7yAn=J^Q+
In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia.
实际上,仅有三个国家面临着这三重逆风:阿根廷、土耳其以及印度尼西亚EjFd&m.n+#c)JK9;
According to an analysis by Research Affiliates, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises.
根据锐联资产管理公司的分析,这三个国家都背负着沉重的美元债务,阿根廷和土耳其正在全力应对全面危机LkaLqJ2OEKAbE2PYG#
This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund to arrest the collapse in the Argentine peso,
今年,其从国际货币基金组织获得了500亿美元的救助,以组织阿根廷比索崩溃,

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为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(3)

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and the country's central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%.
并且该国的中央银行将贷款利率大幅提升至65%@#(WM1LcLUaumvF*
Turkey's economy isn't in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits.
土耳其的经济并不是处于自由落体状态,而是面临着高膨胀,且国际收支逆差大5)rJA!U-@qSp0j8+8
Relatively strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%.
相对强健的经济增长使印度尼西亚能够通过将利率提升至5.75%来稳定卢比G9vTU7%5sfKg_O6jdF
Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three.
巴西和南非也值得关注,如果情况不像其他三个那么严重的话(A#e09otgi
They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars.
他们的美元债务规模中等,并背负着迫使他们借入美元的贸易赤字1YJvykBip%y)1q
"They're both flashing yellow," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates.
“他们都需要谨慎,”锐联资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Brightman表示6KSLLG3uVbD1ETi
"But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession,
“但他们也都拥有大量外汇储备T|F6u~HN6r2=ssAy_9.D。并且巴西最终摆脱了严重的经济衰退,
while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth."
而南非正在降低利率以恢复经济增长2(qdrrR2JNVG9![(
Argentina now rates high enough on "developed" metrics that it's not in the MSCI index, but as a past debt-crisis sufferer,
根据“发达”衡量标准(该指标不在MSCI指数中),阿根廷目前的利率已经足够高,但作为一个经历过债务危机的国家,
it still has the potential to stoke investor concerns about other emerging markets.
它仍有可能引发投资者对其他新兴市场的担忧E-QF[,*qwZzwj
Put simply, the threat of a funding crisis in the nations that dominate the emerging-market index is minimal.
简而言之,在新兴市场指数中占主导地位的国家发生融资危机的威胁很小x8vLzWiBl&
"The Southeast Asian nations have not binged on dollar debt," says George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank.
“东南亚国家没有在美元债务中放纵,”Key Private Bank的首席投资官George Mateyo说到!=-S%icY)SP
"They took their pain 20 years ago, and now all of emerging markets have been penalized with a broad brush."
“他们在20年前就经历过痛苦,现在所以新兴市场都受到了严厉的惩罚F=jluQFz4M^P3I*E%UR。”
What's more, even when emerging-market economies slow, they still grow faster than their grind-it-out, mature-economy counterparts.
此外,即使当新兴市场经济放缓,他们的增长速度仍然比那些已经筋疲力尽的成熟经济体要快PLkz#xdS7#GLY~*0
Despite the downgrade, the IMF still expects developing economies to expand at 4.7% next year.
尽管降级,IMF仍然预计发展中经济体明年将以4.7%的速度增长sJA=u6,_+CWN0o
The developed world is heading in the opposite direction.
发达国家正朝着反方向前进UJRE;^d4PUPu
The agency forecasts that GDP expansion in the industrialized world will decline from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% next year.
该机构预计工业化世界的GDP扩张将从2018年的2.4%降至明年的2.1%CD&^4n~ysYrmh5
"Keep in mind that the U.S. is in the 10th year of an economic up cycle, and emerging markets are in the second year,"
“要记住美国正处于经济上升周期的第10个年头,并且新兴市场在第二个年头,”
notes Chuck Knudsen, a portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.
T. Rowe Price的投资组合专家Chuck Knudsen指出qt92_~G[MU+huIL%26R

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词语解释

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1.tumble 暴跌

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The price of oil is still tumbling.
油价仍在急遽下跌8;9BGTmHZ-t()|vdnjX

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2.exaggerate 夸大

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The hotel was really filthy and I'm not exaggerating.
我不是夸张,这旅店真的很脏ccVxVLL..P[7N.H0T%R

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