Every science fiction writer has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon. I have a lot of those stories.
每一位科幻作家都写过一篇未来实现得太快的故事。我写过很多这样的故事。
Like, OK, for example: years ago, I was writing a story where the government starts using drones to kill people.
比如说：多年前，我正在写一个政府开始用无人机杀人的故事。
I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,
我觉得这是个非常激越的、超前的构想，
but by the time the story was published, the government was already using drones to kill people.
但是当故事发表时，政府已经在用无人机杀人了。
Our world is changing so fast,
我们的世界改变得太快，
and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop where technological change and social change feed on each other.
处在一个加速的反馈循环中，其中科技变革和社会变化会互相推动、增进。
When I was a kid in the 1980s, we knew what the future was going to look like.
20世纪80年代，当我还是小孩时，我们知道未来会是什么样。
It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."
那应当是某种版本的《超时空战警》或是《银翼杀手》。
It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.
有充溢着霓虹灯的超级都市和飞行的车辆。
But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like even in just a couple years,
但如今，没有人知道仅仅在几年之后世界会变成什么模样，
and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.
在未来的地平线上潜伏着如此多可怕的魅影。
From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism, everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,
从气候灾难到独裁统治，每个人都醉心于世界末日，
even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.
哪怕世界一直在走向终结，而我们依旧勇往直前。
Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future, to write about the future.
不要害怕思考未来，去大胆的梦想未来，书写未来。
I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.
我发现这是件非常好玩、很能放飞自我的事。
It's a way of vaccinating yourself against the worst possible case of future shock.
这是一剂疫苗，能帮你抵御未来可能发生的最糟糕的冲击。
It's also a source of empowerment, because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.
这也是一种赋能的来源，因为你无法为某件没有预想过的事情未雨绸缪。
But there's something that you need to know. You don't predict the future; you imagine the future.
但有某件事你应当清楚。你不是在预测未来；你是在想象未来。
So as a science fiction writer whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,
作为一名科幻作家，我笔下的故事常常发生在距今多年后，甚至若干世纪后，
I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future that are both colorful and lived in,
我发现人们渴求的是多彩、繁荣的未来图景，
but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.
但我也发现，仅凭研究无法让我创作出那样的作品。
Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology
于是，我结合了积极梦想、对科学与技术前沿趋势的认识，
and also insight into human history.
以及对人类历史的洞察。
I think a lot about what I know of human nature
我对我所了解的人性进行了大量思考，
and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes and upheavals and transformations.
并反思了在过去人们对待巨变、颠覆与转变作何反应。
And I pair that with an attention to detail, because the details are where we live.
我将其与对细节的关注相结合，因为我们正是生活在细节之中。
We tell the story of our world through the tools we create and the spaces that we live in.
我们通过我们创造的工具和居住的空间来描述周遭的世界。
And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms that science fiction writers use all of the time:
此刻，了解几个科幻作家常用的术语会大有帮助：
"future history" and "second-order effects."
“未来历史”和“二阶效应”。
Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.
“未来历史”可以按字面意思理解。
It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet, like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,
它是还未发生的事件的年表，比如罗伯特·海因莱因著名的故事循环，
which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events going up into the year 2100.
附有一张未来事件的详细图表，一直到2100年。
Or, for my most recent novel, I came up with a really complicated time line that goes all the way to the 33rd century
又比如我最近的一本小说，我设计了一条特别复杂的时间线，一直延续到第33世纪，
and ends with people living on another planet.
最后人们到了另一个星球上生活。
Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.
而“二阶效应”指的是一项新科技或是一次巨变之后引发的那些事情。
There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl that
有一句常被认为是出自作家兼编辑弗雷德里克·珀尔的话：
"A good science fiction story should predict not just the invention of the automobile, but also the traffic jam."
“一个好的科幻故事不仅要预测汽车的发明，还要预测交通堵塞。”
And speaking of traffic jams, I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.
说到交通堵塞，我花了大量时间试图描绘未来的都市。
What's it like? What's it made of? Who's it for?
它是什么样子的？是由什么组成的？是为了何人而建的？
I try to picture a green city with vertical farms and structures that are partially grown rather than built and walkways instead of streets,
我试着设想一个拥有垂直农场的绿色城市，城市结构有部分不是修建的，而是由生物生长而成的，只有人行道，没有马路，
because nobody gets around by car anymore -- a city that lives and breathes.
因为已经没人开车出行了--一个活着的、呼吸着的城市。
And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff that I can possibly come up with,
我由我所能想象的最离奇的白日梦开始，
and then I go back into research mode,
然后回到研究模式，
and I try to make it as plausible as I can by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn and technological speculation.
试图通过结合未来主义都市、设计精品和科技猜想，把它变得尽可能合理。
And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like to be inside that city.
然后我会回头，试图想象住在那个城市里会是一种什么样的体验。
So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,
我的创作过程由想象开始，以想象结束，
and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread in a research sandwich.
就好比夹着“研究三明治”的那两片面包一样。
So as a storyteller, first and foremost, I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters
作为故事的讲述者，首先，我要以我笔下角色的视角生活在那个世界里，
and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges in the context of the space that I've created.
并试图了解他们在我所创造的空间背景中是如何面对自身的挑战的。
What do they smell? What do they touch? What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?
他们闻到了什么味道？触摸了什么东西？在一个智能城市中谈恋爱是种怎样的体验？
What do you see when you look out your window, and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?
当你望向窗外时，能看见什么是否取决于窗户的软件如何与你的情绪互动？
And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.
最后，我会问自己，一个绚丽的未来都市如何保证没有人会无家可归，没有犯罪分子成为漏网之鱼。
And here's where future history comes in handy, because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.
这就是未来历史派上用场的地方，因为城市不会像杂草一样一夜之间突然拔地而起。
They arise and transform. They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations, economic booms, cultural awakenings.
它们有崛起、转变的过程。它们背负着战争、移民、经济繁荣、文化觉醒的伤痕与勋章。

A future city should have monuments, yeah, but it should also have layers of past architecture,
一个未来城市应当有纪念碑，但它也应当有一层层过去的建筑，
repurposed buildings and all of the signs of how we got to this place.
重新修葺的建筑，还有我们如何抵达此处的所有的印记。
And then there's second-order effects, like how do things go wrong -- or right -- in a way that nobody ever anticipated?
然后还有二阶效应，比如事情会如何以出人意料的方式变坏--或者变好？
Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus that can regrow itself to repair any damage,
比如说，如果你的公寓墙壁是由一种可以通过再生来修复任何损伤的菌类做成的，
what if people start eating the walls?
如果人们开始吃墙壁，那该怎么办？
Speaking of eating: What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?
说到吃：未来的城市会有怎样的下水道系统？
It's a trick question. There are no sewers.
这是道陷阱题。未来都市并没有下水道。
There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have in the United States,
美国目前的下水道系统相当诡异的一点是，
where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.
你的排泄物会被冲进管道里，和雨水混合在一起，通常会被倾倒进海洋中。
Not to mention toilet paper.
更别提厕纸了。
A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates, are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,
目前，由比尔·盖茨率领的一群科技人员正在致力于重新发明马桶，
and it's possible that the toilet of the future could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.
或许未来的厕所对今天的人们来说会显得非常奇怪。
So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error, lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?
那么未来的历史，所有那些试错过程，能如何引领更好的如厕方式？
There are companies right now who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand that can substitute for toilet paper,
现在有公司正在测试一种清洗喷头作为厕纸的替代品，
using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.
它会使用压缩空气或者消毒喷雾帮你进行清洁。
But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?
但如果这些东西看起来更像花朵，而不是科技呢？
What if your toilet could analyze your waste and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?
如果你的马桶能分析你的排泄物，让你知悉你体内的菌群是否需要一点调理？
What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?
如果今天将人类排泄物变成燃料的实验能催生智能电池，更好地为你的家供能呢？
But back to the city of the future.
但回到未来的城市。
How do people navigate the space? If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?
人们是如何在空间中导航的？如果没有街道，人们究竟如何搞清地理位置？
I like to think of a place where there are spaces that are partially only in virtual reality
我热衷于设想，在这个地方，有部分空间仅存在于虚拟现实里，
that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.
你甚至需要特殊的硬件才能发现它们。
Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"
比如说在一个故事里，我弄出了一个叫做“云景界面”的东西，
which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head using temporal nodes.
我把它描述为一个用太阳穴接口插入你的脑袋的电镀蜘蛛。
No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.
不，不是这张图，这只是我在某个酒吧里拍的有趣的照片。
And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés
我会难以自拔地想象那些酒吧、餐厅、咖啡厅，
that you could only find your way inside if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.
你只有配备了正确的增强现实（AR）设备才能光顾。
But again, second-order effects: in a world shaped by augmented reality,
但其中同样存在着二阶效应：在一个由增强现实塑造的世界里，
what kind of new communities will we have, what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?
我们会有怎样的新型社区，又会面临哪些未曾想象的新型犯罪？
OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other, and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,
比如说，你和我肩并肩站着，你认为我们在一个喧闹的体育酒吧里，
and I think we're in a highbrow salon with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.
而我觉得我们在一个高雅沙龙里，就着弦乐四重奏谈论鲍德里亚。
I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.
我无法想象在这个情境下会出现什么问题。
Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine. And then there's social media.
我敢肯定一切都会迎刃而解。然后还有社交媒体。
I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios where things like internet quizzes, dating apps, horoscopes, bots,
我能想象到一些相当反乌托邦的情形，网络心理测试、约会应用、星座、聊天机器人
all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes into bad relationships and worse politics.
这些东西都结合在一起，把你往糟糕的关系、更糟的政治的泥沼里越拖越深。
But then I think about the conversations that I've had with people who work on AI,
但我又想起和人工智能从业者的对话，
and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets, the better it is at making connections.
我总会听他们说，人工智能变得越聪明，它们就越会建立关系。
So maybe the social media of the future will be better.
所以或许未来的社交媒体会变得更好。
Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.
或许它能帮我们建立更健康、破坏性更小的关系。
Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity. I really hope so.
或许我们的设备能促进团结与际遇。我衷心希望如此。
And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,
我有时候会想，如果真的存在强大的人工智能，
they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."
它们或许会享受我们古怪的人际关系大戏，就像你我热衷于《真实主妇真人秀》一样。
And finally, there's medicine.
最后，还有医疗。
I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,
我常常会想，遗传医学的发展能如何改进癌症或失智症患者的治疗结果，
and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.
或许有朝一日，你的百岁生日只不过标志着还有二三十年的健康、充满活力的生活在等着你。
Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,
或许我刚提到的未来的马桶能改善很多人的健康，
including people in parts of the world where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.
包括在世界上某些没有复杂下水道系统的地方生活的人们。
But also, as a transgender person, I like to think:
另外，作为一名变性者，我还乐意设想：
What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system that improve the options for trans people,
我们能否进一步理解内分泌系统，从而改善变性群体的选择，
the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options for the previous generation?
就像荷尔蒙和变性手术拓宽了上一代的选择那样？
So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you, people talk about the future
最后：其实，今天我想告诉各位的是，人们谈论未来时，
as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.
仿佛未来要么是高科技仙境，要么是让人不忍直视的世界末日。
But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.
但事实是，未来不会是其中任何一种情况。
It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.
它会是两者的折中，它会两者皆是，它会是所有一切可能。
The one thing we do know is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.
我们唯一知道的是，未来会非常奇怪。
Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear to someone from the early 20th.
想想21世纪初期对20世纪初期的人来说会显得多么古怪。
And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.
而我们都有某种逻辑误区，我们期望未来会是现在的延伸。
Like, people in the 1980s thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.
就像20世纪80年代的人们认为苏联会存续到今日。
But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of. But we can try.
但未来会比我们所能想象的更为光怪陆离。不过我们可以尝试。
And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things, but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.
我知道未来会有非常可怕的事情发生，但也会有奇迹，会有慰藉。
And the first step to finding your way forward is to let your imagination run free. Thank you.
而找到前进道路的第一步，就是放飞你的想象力。谢谢。