So what if there were a highly obvious problem right in front of you?
假如有一个非常明显的问题摆在你面前会怎么样？
One that everyone was talking about, one that affected you directly.
一个所有人都在讨论的，直接影响你的问题。
Would you do everything within your power to fix things before they got worse? Don't be so sure.
请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前，尽你所能去解决它吗？不要太确定你的答案。
We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。
And in fact, we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things precisely
而且就事实上来说，有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因，
because of the threat that they represent to us, in business, life and the world.
正是来自这些事情给我们的，在事业方面，生活方面乃至世界方面的风险。
So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy.
我想举一个我身边的例子--经济政策。
So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve,
当阿兰·格林斯潘还是联邦储备局局长的时候，
his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy and to make sure that they didn't spin out of control.
他的整个工作就是小心地监督美国经济的潜在问题，并确保它们没有失去控制。
So, after 2006, when real estate prices peaked,
所以，2006年以后，当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候，
more and more and more respected leaders and institutions started to sound the alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles.
越来越多有名望的领导人和机构开始敲响风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。
As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down.
如各位所知，2008年一切都轰然倒塌。
Banks collapsed, global stock markets lost nearly half their value,
银行倒闭，全世界的股票市场丢失了接近一半的价值，
millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.
数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。
And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work.
而在社会基层，将近十分之一的美国人失业了。
So after things calmed down a little bit,
所以在事情缓和了一些以后，
Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said, "Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
格林斯潘和许多人从这个低谷中走出来说：“没有人会有可能提前预知这场危机。”
They called it "a black swan." Something that was unimaginable, unforeseeable and completely improbable.
他们叫它“黑天鹅”。一个很难想象的，不可预知并且完全难以置信的事情。
A total surprise. Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。只是它不总是一个惊喜。
For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value in less than four years.
比如说，我在曼哈顿的公寓在不到四年的时间里价值几乎翻了一倍。
I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.
我获得了一些信息，于是我将它出售了。
So, a lot of other people also saw the warning, spoke out publicly and they were ignored.
总之，很多其他人也看到了同样的警示，公开地说了出来，但是这些信息都被忽视了。
So we didn't know exactly what the crisis was going to look like, not the exact parameters,
所以我们并不准确地知道这场危机到底会是什么模样，不知道确切的参数，
but we could all tell that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.
但是我们可以说这个即将到来的事情和一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛一样的危险、可见、可预判。
The black swan lends itself to the idea that we don't have power over our futures.
这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点，那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。
And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore it entirely.
不幸的是，我们越是这样想，我们就越有可能对之不予重视，甚至完全忽视它。
And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem:
这个危险的情况还掩盖了另一个问题：
that most of the problems that we're facing are so probable and obvious,
那就是我们所面对的困难都极有可能发生且极度明显，
they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about.
它们是我们所能看见的，但是我们依然不采取任何措施。
So I created the gray rhino metaphor to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，来描绘我所认为的“急需”。
To help us to take a fresh look, with the same passion that people had for the black swan,
为了帮助我们焕然一新，用我们曾经对待“黑天鹅”那样的热情，
but this time, for the things that were highly obvious, highly probable, but still neglected. Those are the gray rhinos.
但这次为了非常明显的事件，很可能发生，但是依然被忽视的事件。那些事件就是灰犀牛。
Once you start looking for gray rhinos, you see them in the headlines every day.
一旦你开始寻找这种动物，你就会每天都在头条看到它的名字。
And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino, a new highly probable financial crisis.
然而我在头条所看到的是另外一头灰犀牛，一个全新的、极有可能发生的金融危机。
And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years.
于是我在想我们是否真的从过去的十年里学到了什么。
So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street, you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
如果你是从华盛顿或者华尔街听到的消息，你认为一切顺利就情有可原。
But in China, where I spend a lot of time, the conversation is totally different.
但是在中国，一个我投入了许多时间研究的国家，对话内容完全不一样。
The entire economic team, all the way up to president Xi Jinping himself,
所有的经济小组，一直到习近平总书记本人，
talk very specifically and clearly about financial risks as gray rhinos, and how they can tame them.
都会很清晰具体地讲述经济风险，并用上灰犀牛的比喻，并且讨论他们会怎样制服它。
Now, to be sure, China and the US have very, very different systems of government,
很明显，中国和美国有着差异很大的政府系统，
which affects what they're able to do or not.
这影响着他们的能力范围。
And many of the root causes for their economic problems are totally different.
并且两个国家的经济问题根源也完全不同。
But it's no secret that both countries have problems with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity.
虽说如此，两国都存在问题已不是秘密例如债务、不平等和经济生产力。
So how come the conversations are so different?
到底为何这些对话如此不同？
You could actually ask this question, not just about countries, but about just about everyone.
其实这个问题不仅适用于国家，也适用于每个人。
The auto companies that put safety first and the ones that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars until after people die.
那些把安全放在第一位的汽车公司，和一些从不考虑召回他们的劣质汽车直到有人丧命的公司。
The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable
那些为不可避免的离世而做准备的祖父母
the ones who have the eulogy written, the menu for the funeral lunch. My grandparents did.
那些已经将写好悼词和葬礼午餐菜单的，我的祖父母就这样做了。
And everything but the final date chiseled into the gravestone.
包括所有其他的事情，除了刻到坟墓上的最后日期。

But then you have the grandparents on the other side, who don't put their final affairs in order,
但当你又有与我相反的祖父母，他们不规划自己临终时的事情，
who don't get rid of all the junk they've been hoarding for decades and decades and leave their kids to deal with it.
他们不轻易摆脱掉那些他们已经囤积了数十载的废旧物品，并且留给他们的子女去解决。
So what makes the difference between one side and the other?
那么两种方式的差别在哪里？
Why do some people see things and deal with them, and the other ones just look away?
为什么有的人会注意到问题并解决，而其他人仅会无视？
So the first one has to do with culture, society, the people around you.
首先是与文化和社会因素有关，那些你身边的人。
If you think that someone around you is going to help pick you up when you fall,
如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候，你身边的人会帮助你，
you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.
那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。
And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones.
那么这就使我们能够把握好机会，而不是坏的。
For example, like risking criticism when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you to talk about.
比如对风险的评判，当你谈到没有人愿意跟你聊的风险或者把握住有一点吓人的机会。
Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary, so in their own way are gray rhinos.
那么对于他们而言，这是经常被提示却未被重视的大概率风险，即“灰犀牛”。
So the US has a very individualist culture -- go it alone.
在美国就有一种个人主义的文化--独自完成。
And paradoxically, this makes many Americans much less open to change and taking good risks.
矛盾的是，这使得很多美国人更不敢去改变，并且承担有回报的风险。
In China, by contrast, people believe that the government is going to keep problems from happening,
在中国，与之相反，人民相信政府会把问题在根源解决，
which might not always be what happens, but people believe it.
其实事实上并不总如此，但是人民选择相信。
They believe they can rely on their families, so that makes them more likely to take certain risks.
他们相信他们可以依靠他们的家庭，这样让他们更有能力承担相应的风险。
Like buying Beijing real estate, or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction,
像是在北京买房，或者在面对需要改变目标或方向时更加从容，
and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.
并且事实上，中国改变的速度是惊人的。
Second of all, how much do you know about a situation, how much are you willing to learn?
其次，你对当下的情况了解多少，你是否意愿去学习？
And are you willing to see things even when it's not what you want?
以及你是否愿意看到你其实并不想看到的事情？
So many of us are so unlikely to pay attention to the things that we just want to black out, we don't like them.
我们很多人不太可能愿意去关注我们想要屏蔽的事情，我们不喜欢它们。
We pay attention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with.
我们会注意想看到的，喜欢以及认同的事情。
But we have the opportunity and the ability to correct those blind spots.
但是我们有能力和机会去矫正那些盲点。
I spend a lot of time talking with people of all walks of life about the gray rhinos in their life and their attitudes.
我花了很多时间和各行各业的人交流关于他们人生中的“灰犀牛”和他们对此的态度。
And you might think that the people who are more afraid of risk,
你可能会认为那些更加害怕去冒险的人，
who are more sensitive to them, would be the ones who would be less open to change.
那些对事情更敏感的人，会更难接受变动。
But the opposite is actually true.
但是事实恰恰相反。
I've found that the people who are wiling to recognize the problems around them
我发现那些更愿意认识到他们身边的问题，
and make plans are the ones who are able to tolerate more risk, good risk, and deal with the bad risk.
并且做出计划的人，才是更能够承受风险，好的风险，并解决坏风险的人。
And it's because as we seek information, we increase our power to do something about the things that we're afraid of.
这是因为我们在寻找信息时，我们会提高自己解决那些自己害怕的事情的能力。
And that brings me to my third point.
这就引出了我的第三个观点。
How much control do you feel that you have over the gray rhinos in your life?
你对你人生中“灰犀牛”的把控有到少？
One of the reasons we don't act is that we often feel too helpless.
一个我们很少表现出来的原因，就是我们经常感到无助。
Think of climate change, it can feel so big, that not a single one of us could make a difference.
考虑到气候变化的时候，它是一件如此大的事情，并不是我们中的任何一人可以独自解决的。
So some people go about life denying it. Other people blame everyone except themselves.
因此，有些人开始怀疑人生。其他人开始责怪除他们自己以外的所有人。
Like my friend who says he's not ever going to give up his SUV until they stop building coal plants in China.
就像我朋友曾经说的，他永远不会放弃他的SUV，除非他们停止在中国挖油田。
But we have an opportunity to change. No two of us are the same.
但是我们有机会去改变。没有任何两个人是一样的。
Every single one of us has the opportunity to change our attitudes, our own and those of people around us.
我们每一个人都有机会去改变我们的态度，我们自己和身边人的态度。
So today, I want to invite all of you to join me in helping to spark an open and honest conversation with the people around you,
所以今天，我想要邀请你们所有人同我一起开展一个开诚布公的对话，和你们身边的人，
about the gray rhinos in our world, and be brutally honest about how well we're dealing with them.
讨论那些我们生活中的“灰犀牛”们，并且绝对坦诚地聊一下我们会如何完美地解决它们。
I hear so many times in the States, "Well, of course we should deal with obvious problems,
我在美国听过太多次：“我们当然需要解决那些问题，
but if you don't see what's in front of you, you're either dumb or ignorant."
但是如果你看不见你面前的东西，那你要么是愚昧，要么是无知。”
That's what they say, and I could not disagree more.
这就是他们的说辞，而我非常不赞同。
If you don't see what's in front of you, you're not dumb, you're not ignorant, you're human.
如果你看不见迫在眉睫的事务，你并不是愚昧，也不是无知，你只是个普通的人类。
And once we all recognize that shared vulnerability,
只要我们发现共有的脆弱，
that gives us the power to open our eyes, to see what's in front of us and to act before we get trampled.
会给我们勇气去睁开眼睛，去看见眼前的事物，并在被践踏前及时做出反应。