(单词翻译:单击)
Hi, I'm Craig and this is Crash Course Government and Politics
大家好，我是克雷格，这里是政府与政治速成班
and today, I'm gonna get inside the head of the American voter, and then we are going to win every election ever ahaha!
今天，我要进入美国选民的头脑，然后我们要赢得每一场选举，哈哈!
No. Not literally.
不。不是真的。
That would require some sort of shrink ray technology that hasn't been invented, although I understand there is an Antman movie.
这将需要某种尚未发明的收缩射线技术，尽管我知道有一部安曼电影。
Today we're going to look at how voters make decisions, and when it comes right down to it, we don't really know.
今天我们来看看选民们是如何做出决定的，而当事情发展到这一步的时候，我们真的不知道。
After all, voting is like any other decision.
毕竟，投票和其他决定一样。
It results from a number of factors, only some of which are conscious at the time,
它是由很多因素造成的，其中只有一些是有意识的，
and the main way we can tell about what caused someone to vote one way or another is to ask them,
我们知道是什么原因导致人们以这样或那样的方式投票的主要方法是问他们，
and human beings are notoriously unreliable when it comes to knowing their own motivations.
众所周知，当涉及到了解自己的动机时，人类是不可靠的。
So when I say we're gonna try to figure out how voters decide, really we'll be looking at what political scientists have decided are the factors that influence voting decisions –
所以当我说我们要弄清楚选民是如何决定的时候，实际上我们要看的是政治学家们决定了什么是影响投票决定的因素——
which is way less exciting than saying we'll be inside the heads of voters.
这远没有说我们将进入选民的头脑那么令人兴奋。
So we're gonna say we'll be inside the heads of voters!
所以我们会说我们会进入选民的头脑！
Political scientists have identified three main factors that influence how a person will vote.
政治学家已经确定了影响人们投票方式的三个主要因素。
These are party loyalty, the issues involved in an election, and characteristics of the candidates running for office.
三个主要因素：党派忠诚、选举中涉及的问题、以及竞选公职的候选人的特点。
If you stop to think about it, this makes total sense and may cause you to wonder whether we should be paying political scientists their exorbitant salaries.
如果你停下来想一想，这完全有道理，可能会让你怀疑，我们是否应该给政治科学家支付过高的薪水。
Let's start with party loyalty since this is supposedly the single largest predictor of how a person will vote.
让我们从党派忠诚开始吧，因为这被认为是一个人如何投票的最大预测因素。
Many voters identify as members of a political party, usually democrat or republican, although a large percentage of people call themselves independents too.
许多选民认为自己是某个政党的成员，通常是民主党人或共和党人，不过也有很大一部分人自称独立派。
We'll discuss the makeup of these parties in another episode.
我们将在另一集中讨论这些党派的组成。
Really we're gonna discuss makeup, Stan? Oh.
我们真的要讨论组成吗，斯坦？哦。
For now, we should acknowledge that party loyalty is very very important in predicting voter behavior.
就目前而言，我们应该承认，在预测选民行为方面，党派忠诚非常非常重要。
In fact, it is usually in the range of 90%.
事实上，它通常在90%的范围内。
People identify with a political party for a number of reasons.
人们认同一个政党有很多原因。
Some develop a psychological attachment to their party, often from youth.
有些人对他们的政党产生了一种心理上的依恋，往往从青年时期就开始了。
I've mentioned this before, but your parents can have a powerful effect on whether you identify as a democrat or republican,
我之前提到过，但是你的父母对你是民主党人还是共和党人有很大的影响，
although it's not always easy to predict how this effect will work.
尽管预测这种效应如何发挥作用并不总是那么容易。
I know plenty of staunch republicans who adopted their party in rebellion against their parents, and vice versa,
我认识很多坚定的共和党人，他们通过自己的政党来反抗他们的父母，反之亦然，
and there's some evidence that these political parties - democrat and republican - are becoming more opposed to each other, which political writers describe as “increasing polarization”.
有一些证据表明，这些政党——民主党和共和党——正变得越来越对立，政治作家将其描述为“日益加剧的两极分化”。
One piece of evidence for this polarization are polls showing a greater percentage of Americans reporting that they'd be disappointed if their child married someone who was from the opposing political party. Yikes.
这种两极分化的一个证据是，民意调查显示，如果他们的孩子嫁给了来自对立政党的人，他们会感到失望的美国人比例会更高。呵。
Many people identify with a particular party because they believe that the party's ideals coincided with their personal ideology.
许多人认同一个特定的政党，因为他们相信这个政党的理想与他们个人的意识形态是一致的。
This is where we get the democrats are liberals and republicans are conservatives dichotomy.
这就是为什么民主党人是自由主义者，而共和党人是保守派。
Past experience with political leaders and representatives also contributes to an individual's party identity.
过去与政治领导人和代表打交道的经验也有助于个人的政党身份。
A good example on the democratic side is that people who grew up during the Great Depression and formed a positive view of FDR tended to become, and to stay, democrat.
民主党方面的一个很好的例子是，那些在大萧条时期长大、对罗斯福形成积极看法的人，往往会成为民主党人，并一直是民主党人。
Something similar happened in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan who appealed to voters across party lines.
上世纪80年代，罗纳德•里根也发生过类似的事情，他跨越党派界线吸引选民。
'Cos he was just so jovial and folksy!
因为他是那么快乐和随和！
The second factor that influences voter decisions is candidate characteristics.
影响选民决定的第二个因素是候选人的特点。
Again, political scientists and common sense are in agreement here.
同样，政治学家和常识在这一点上是一致的。
People often vote for candidates with characteristics that they like.
人们经常投票给他们喜欢的候选人。
Which characteristics seem to matter?
哪些特征似乎很重要?
Well, the ones you'd expect.
嗯，就是你想要的那种。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
让我们进入思想泡泡。
Voters may be attracted to, or repelled by, a candidate's race, ethnicity, religion, gender, or beard.
选民可能会被候选人的种族、民族、宗教、性别或胡须所吸引或排斥。
Sometimes these characteristics are more obvious than other times,
有时这些特征比其他时候更明显，
and uninformed voters may rely on stereotypes of candidates, especially when it comes to ethnicity or religion.
无知的选民可能会依赖于对候选人的刻板印象，尤其是在种族或宗教问题上。
Another personal characteristic that seems important is geography, which in this case, means the region that the candidate is identified as being from.
另一个似乎很重要的个人特征是地理位置，在这种情况下，地理位置是指候选人所在的地区。
Joe Biden, when he was a senator, did a lot to identify himself with Delaware, including pointing out how he took Amtrak home from Washington.
乔•拜登在担任参议员期间，做了很多事情来表明自己与特拉华州的关系，包括指出他是如何把美国铁路公司从华盛顿接回家的。
Which, if you're familiar with U.S. geography, or have ridden in the northeast corridor trains, you'll know is actually pretty close to Delaware.
如果你熟悉美国的地理，或者曾经乘坐过东北走廊列车，你就会知道这里离特拉华州很近。
Sometimes though, geography doesn't seem to matter at all.
不过，有时地理位置似乎根本不重要。
Hillary Clinton hadn't spent much time in New York before voters in that state elected her to the senate.
希拉里·克林顿在纽约州待了没多久，该州选民就把她选为参议员。
If anything, she was associated more with Arkansas,
如果说她和阿肯色州有什么联系的话，
but in that case her gender and probably more important her star power were enough to overcome complaints that she was a carpet bagger.
但在那种情况下，她的性别，或许更重要的是，她的明星效应足以克服人们对她是个“地毯装袋工”的抱怨。
And she and Bill did buy a sweet place in Chappaqua, mkay?
她和比尔在查帕夸买了个甜蜜的地方吗?
One characteristic that is supposed to make a difference to voters is social background.
社会背景被认为是影响选民的一个特征。
The assumption here is that voters will choose candidates whom they believe are similar to themselves in terms of social class.
这里的假设是，选民会选择他们认为在社会阶层方面与自己相似的候选人。
Candidates certainly strive to appear like regular Joes and Janes, but I'm a bit skeptical on this one.
候选人当然努力表现得像普通的乔斯和简斯，但我对这一点有点怀疑。
That's not like me at all, my name is Craig.
那根本不像我，我叫克雷格。
A remarkably high number of congressmen and senators are millionaires, for example, but most Americans decidedly are not.
例如，相当多的国会议员和参议员是百万富翁，但大多数美国人显然不是。
Same goes for college education.
大学教育也是如此。
Most congressmen and all presidents since Harry Truman have graduated from college, but only about 30% of Americans have.
自哈里·杜鲁门以来，大多数国会议员和所有总统都从大学毕业，但只有30%左右的美国人从大学毕业。
Many voters are also influenced by a candidate's personality.
许多选民也受候选人个性的影响。
These include virtues like a reputation for honesty, energy, and decisiveness, but maybe all candidates are decisive and that's why they ran in the first place.
这些优点包括诚实、精力充沛和果断，但也许所有候选人都很果断，这就是他们竞选的初衷。
I don't know, I can't decide.
我不知道，我不能决定。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
谢谢思想泡泡。
So the third factor that influences how voters make their choices is where the candidates stand on issues.
因此，影响选民做出选择的第三个因素是候选人在问题上的立场。
We would hope that this would be the voters' top priority, but in fact it's pretty far down the list.
我们希望这将是选民的首要任务，但事实上，它在名单上的位置相当靠后。
There are two types of issue voting, retrospective and prospective, and both add information costs to voters' decisions.
回顾性和前瞻性这两种类型的议题投票都增加了选民决策的信息成本。
Retrospective voting is when a voter chooses a candidate based on that candidate's past performance.
回溯性投票是指选民根据候选人过去的表现来选择候选人。
Like if your main issue was eagle punching, you would know from my past experience that there is a whole lot of eagle punching going on, even my current experience.
如果你的主要问题是打鹰，从我过去的经验，你会知道我打了很多次鹰，甚至我现在经验经验丰富。
But a common problem with this is that finding out how a candidate has performed does take some time and research.
但一个常见的问题是，要想知道应聘者的表现确实需要一些时间和研究。
Prospective voting, as you might have guessed, is voting based on the imagined future performance of a candidate.
预期投票，正如你可能已经猜到的，是基于对候选人未来表现的想象而进行的投票。
Like let's imagine how I would perform in the future.
想象一下我将来的表现。
Ahh, I love the future. Oh yeah, I thought so.
啊，我爱未来。是啊，我也这么想。
Imagining what a candidate will do in the future seems like it will be easy, just watch the debates, they will tell you what they're gonna do-- but is that really what they're gonna do?
想象一个候选人将来会做什么似乎很简单，只要看辩论，他们会告诉你他们将要做什么——但这真的是他们将要做的吗?
I don't have a time machine, at least one that you know about.
我没有时间机器，至少你知道。
If you'll allow me to indulge in some poli-sci jargon at this point, I'd like to mention that there are at least two types of political issues.
如果你允许我在这一点上沉溺于一些政治科学术语，我想提一下，至少有两种类型的政治问题。
There are spatial issues and valence issues.
有空间问题和价态问题。
Spatial issues are those for which there is a range of possible options or choices.
空间问题是指存在一系列可能的选择的问题。
Think of them as existing on a spectrum.
把它们想象成存在于光谱上。
Minimum wage is a good example of a spatial issue, some voters want it to be higher, and some want it to be lowered.
最低工资是空间问题的一个很好的例子，一些选民希望提高最低工资，一些选民希望降低最低工资。
Some want it to be basically infra-red, cause they don't want any of it at all.
有些人希望它基本上是红外线的，因为他们根本不想要任何东西。
Abortion is sometimes considered a spatial issue as well, although there are probably fewer points on the continuum for it than something like minimum wage, or taxes, jeez, that's a crazy spectrum!
堕胎有时也被认为是一个空间问题，尽管它可能比最低工资或税收等更少的连续点，天哪，这是一个疯狂的变化!
Valence issues are those for which all voters will prefer a higher value.
价态问题是指所有选民都倾向于较高价值的问题。
One example here might be government transparency, it's hard to find a voters who wants a candidate to run against transparency, although I'm sure they're out there, maybe.
一个例子可能是政府的透明度，很难找到一个选民想让候选人反对透明度，尽管我相信他们可能在那里。
So there you have the basic idea of how voters make decisions.
这就是选民如何做决定的基本概念。
Much of this seems pretty common sensical, but there's a couple things to point out.
这些似乎都很常见，但有几点需要指出。
First, even though political scientists have identified these three factors:
首先，尽管政治学家已经确定了这三个因素:
party loyalty, candidate characteristics, and issues, there are probably others that play a role and there are probably also factors that interact with each other.
政党忠诚、候选人的特点和问题，可能还有其他因素在起作用，也可能有相互影响的因素。
For example, personal prejudices aren't really mentioned, but I'm sure they matter and they interact with candidate characteristics.
例如，个人偏见并没有真正被提及，但我确信它们很重要，而且它们与候选人的特征相互影响。
One example of this is the so-called Bradley Effect, named after former L.A.mayor Tom Bradley.
其中一个例子就是所谓的“布拉德利效应”市长汤姆布莱德利。
Bradley was leading in all the polls for California governor in 1982, but he lost.
布拉德利在1982年竞选加州州长的所有民调中都领先，但他输了。
Political scientists surmise that the polls were off because white voters told pollsters that they were willing to vote for Bradley, when they really weren't.
政治学家推测，民意调查之所以没有结果，是因为白人选民告诉民意调查人员，他们愿意投票给布拉德利，而实际上他们并不愿意。
The idea is that Bradley's race was more important than his political party, even though voters claimed that it wouldn't be a factor in their decision.
他们的想法是，布拉德利的竞选比他的政党更重要，尽管选民们声称这不会成为他们做出决定的一个因素。
So which of these factors is best at predicting election outcomes?
那么，这些因素中哪一个最能预测选举结果呢?
Well, party loyalty is probably your best bet, but as so-called Reagan Democrats show us, party loyalty might matter less when a candidate is particularly charismatic, or if the issues line up in their favor.
嗯，党派忠诚可能是你最好的选择，但正如所谓的里根民主党人向我们展示的那样，当一个候选人特别有魅力，或者当问题对他们有利时，党派忠诚可能就不那么重要了。
One thing that political scientists have discovered is that the more informed the electorate is, the more heavily issues and candidate characteristics matter.
政治学家发现的一件事是，选民了解的越多，议题和候选人特征就越重要。
But since, as we've seen, Americans are generally not well-informed voters, party affiliation looms particularly large in American campaigns, and that's what we'll be looking at next time -- campaigns.
但是，正如我们所看到的，美国人通常不是消息灵通的选民，在美国的竞选活动中，党派关系显得尤为重要，这就是我们下节课要关注的——竞选活动。
Thanks for watching, see you next time.
谢谢收看，下次再见。
Crash Course: Government and Politics is produced in association with PBS Digital Studios.
政府与政治速成课程是与PBS数字工作室联合制作的。
Support for Crash Course: U.S.Government comes from Voqal.
对于美国政府速成课的支持来自Voqal。
Voqal supports non-profits that use technology and media to advance social equity.
Voqal支持使用技术和媒体促进社会公平的非营利组织。
Learn more about their mission and initiatives at http://voqal.org.
了解更多关于他们的使命和倡议，请访问http://voqal.org。
Crash Course was made with the help of these party loyalists, and loyalists of parties.
速成班是在这些忠于党派的人的帮助下完成的。
Thanks for watching.
感谢收看。
