It was my first year as an atmospheric science professor at Texas Tech University.
那年是我第一年担任德州理工大学的大气科学教授。
We had just moved to Lubbock, Texas,
我刚搬去德克萨斯的卢博克市，
which had recently been named the second most conservative city in the entire United States.
它当时刚被提名为全美国第二保守的城市。
A colleague asked me to guest teach his undergraduate geology class. I said, "Sure."
一位同事邀请我担任客座教授，教一群大学生地质学。我说：“好啊。”
But when I showed up, the lecture hall was cavernous and dark.
但我到的时候，整个阶梯教室显得特别空旷又很暗。
As I tracked the history of the carbon cycle through geologic time to present day,
当我从碳循环讲到地质时期，再讲到现在时，
most of the students were slumped over, dozing or looking at their phones.
大部分学生都已经趴在桌子上了，有的在打瞌睡，有的在看手机。
I ended my talk with a hopeful request for any questions. And one hand shot up right away.
我暂停了讲课，希望有人能提出问题。一只手立刻举了起来。
I looked encouraging, he stood up, and in a loud voice, he said, "You're a democrat, aren't you?"
我用鼓励的眼神看着他，他站起来，大声问道：“你是民主党，对吧？”
"No," I said, "I'm Canadian."
我说：“不是。我是加拿大人。”
That was my baptism by fire into what has now become a sad fact of life here in the United States and increasingly across Canada as well.
这是我面对过的一个难题，它现在已经成为所有美国人必须面对的一个悲伤的事实。同时这个问题在加拿大也日益凸显出来。
The fact that the number one predictor of whether we agree that climate is changing,
它就是我们是否认同气候正在发生变化，
humans are responsible and the impacts are increasingly serious and even dangerous,
人类是否该为此负责，以及气候变化的影响日益增加甚至在威胁我们的生活，
has nothing to do with how much we know about science or even how smart we are
这一切都跟我们对科学了解的多少甚至人类智慧的高低无关，
but simply where we fall on the political spectrum.
我们只关心我们的政治立场。
Does the thermometer give us a different answer depending on if we're liberal or conservative? Of course not.
温度计会根据我们是自由党还是保守党显示不同的数字吗？当然不会。
But if that thermometer tells us that the planet is warming,
但如果温度计告诉我们地球正在变暖，
that humans are responsible and that to fix this thing,
人类应该对此负责并去解决这件事，
we have to wean ourselves off fossil fuels as soon as possible
我们就应该尽快停止化石燃料的使用，
well, some people would rather cut off their arm
当然，有些人宁愿砍掉自己的胳膊，
than give the government any further excuse to disrupt their comfortable lives and tell them what to do.
相比起让政府找到借口影响他们的舒适生活并告诉他们应该怎样做事。
But saying, "Yes, it's a real problem, but I don't want to fix it,"
他们可以说：“对，这是个问题，但我就是不想去解决。”
that makes us the bad guy, and nobody wants to be the bad guy.
这样说就让我们变成了坏人，而没有人愿意当坏人。
So instead, we use arguments like, "It's just a natural cycle." "It's the sun."
所以我们就会说：“这只是自然规律的循环。”“是太阳的影响。”
Or my favorite, "Those climate scientists are just in it for the money."
或者我最喜欢的理由：“大气科学家这么说就是为了赚钱。”
I get that at least once a week.
我至少一周会听到一次这样的说法。
But these are just sciencey-sounding smoke screens, that are designed to hide the real reason for our objections,
但它只是听起来很科学，实则是为了掩饰我们拒绝承认气候变化的真正理由的障眼法，
which have nothing to do with the science and everything to do with our ideology and our identity.
它跟科学没有任何关系，完全是个人的胡乱猜测。
So when we turn on the TV these days, it seems like pundit X is saying, "It's cold outside. Where is global warming now?"
所以这些天当我们打开电视就会看到权威人士X说：“外面这么冷。说好的全球气候变暖呢？”
And politician Y is saying, "For every scientist who says this thing is real, I can find one who says it isn't."
或是政治家Y说：“只要有一个科学家说全球变暖是真的，我就能找到一个人跟他说出相反的意见。”
So it's no surprise that sometimes we feel like everybody is saying these myths.
所以要是你感觉好像全世界的人都在讨论这件事，这一点都不奇怪。
But when we look at the data
但当我们看向数据的时候，
and the Yale Program on Climate Communication has done public opinion polling across the country now for a number of years
耶鲁大学气候变化交流会花了好几年对全美国的人民做的民意调查，
the data shows that actually 70 percent of people in the United States agree that the climate is changing.
数据显示全美有70%的人相信气候正在发生变化。
And 70 percent also agree that it will harm plants and animals, and it will harm future generations.
70%的人相信它会影响植物和动物以及我们后代的生存。
But then when we dig down a bit deeper, the rubber starts to hit the road.
但是当我们再问深一点，情况就没那么好了。
Only about 60 percent of people think it will affect people in the United States.
只有60%的人认为气候变化会影响美国人。
Only 40 percent of people think it will affect us personally.
40%的人认为会影响到他们自己。
And then when you ask people, "Do you ever talk about this?"
然后当问到：“你有没有跟人讨论过这件事？”的时候，
two-thirds of people in the entire United States say, "Never."
全美国有2/3的人表示从来没有过。
And even worse, when you say, "Do you hear the media talk about this?"
更糟糕的是，当问到“你有没有听到媒体讨论这件事？”
Over three-quarters of people say no. So it's a vicious cycle.
超过2/3的人回答没有。这样就形成了一个恶性循环。
The planet warms. Heat waves get stronger. Heavy precipitation gets more frequent.
全球变暖。热浪越来越强。强降水越来越频繁。
Hurricanes get more intense. Scientists release yet another doom-filled report.
飓风的威力越来越大。科学家又发布了新的末日预警。
Politicians push back even more strongly, repeating the same sciencey-sounding myths.
而政治家们进行更猛烈的反扑，重复着那些听起来似乎很科学的话。
What can we do to break this vicious cycle?
我们怎么做才能打破这种恶性循环呢？
The number one thing we can do is the exact thing that we're not doing: talk about it.
我们要做的第一件事就是我们目前没有人去做的事：去讨论它。
But you might say, "I'm not a scientist.
但可能有人会说：“我又不是科学家。
How am I supposed to talk about radiative forcing or cloud parametrization in climate models?"
我怎么讨论辐射强迫还有气候模型的云的参数呢？”
We don't need to be talking about more science; we've been talking about the science for over 150 years.
我们不用讨论科学；我们讨论科学已经讨论了150多年了。
Did you know that it's been 150 years or more since the 1850s,
你们知道吗，从19世纪50年代到现在，已经有150多年了，
when climate scientists first discovered that digging up and burning coal and gas and oil
那时的气象科学家就已经第一次发现，挖掘和焚烧煤和天然气以及石油，
is producing heat-trapping gases that is wrapping an extra blanket around the planet?
会产生吸热气体，这种气体会像毯子一样包裹在我们的地球周围。
That's how long we've known.
我们知道这个问题的存在已经有这么久了。
It's been 50 years since scientists first formally warned a US president of the dangers of a changing climate,
从科学家们第一次正式警告美国总统气候变化的影响到现在已经过去50年了，
and that president was Lyndon B. Johnson.
那位总统是林顿·约翰逊。
And what's more, the social science has taught us that if people have built their identity on rejecting a certain set of facts,
而且社会科学也告诉我们，如果你把自己的乐趣建立在攻击一系列既定事实的基础上的话，
then arguing over those facts is a personal attack.
你对这些事实的反驳会被认为是一种人身攻击。
It causes them to dig in deeper, and it digs a trench, rather than building a bridge.
这会让双方不断挖掘对方的问题，最后会挖出一道壕沟，而不是架起一座桥梁。
So if we aren't supposed to talk about more science, or if we don't need to talk about more science,
如果我们不应该或者不需要去更多的讨论科学，
then what should we be talking about?
那我们应该讨论什么？
The most important thing to do is,
我们要做的最重要的一件事就是，
instead of starting up with your head, with all the data and facts in our head,
有了头脑中这些事实和数据，我们不要再用大脑，
to start from the heart, to start by talking about why it matters to us, to begin with genuinely shared values.
而应该用心去讨论这件事为什么对我们很重要，去真诚的讨论我们都认同的价值观念。
Are we both parents? Do we live in the same community?
我们都是父母对吗？我们居住在同一个星球吗？
Do we enjoy the same outdoor activities: hiking, biking, fishing, even hunting?
我们都喜欢例如远足、骑自行车、钓鱼甚至打猎这些户外活动对吗？
Do we care about the economy or national security?
我们在乎经济和国家安全吗？
For me, one of the most foundational ways I found to connect with people is through my faith.
对我来说，我发现的要跟人建立连接的最基础的方式之一就是通过信仰。
As a Christian, I believe that God created this incredible planet that we live on
作为基督徒，我相信是上帝创造了这个我们居住的无比美丽的星球，
and gave us responsibility over every living thing on it.
他也赋予了我们责任去照顾居住其上的每一种生物。
And I furthermore believe that we are to care for and love the least fortunate among us,
我还相信我们应该照顾和爱这些幸运儿，
those who are already suffering the impacts of poverty, hunger, disease and more.
也就是那些正在遭受着贫穷、饥饿、疾病以及更多不利因素影响的人们。
If you don't know what the values are that someone has,
如果你不了解某个人的价值观念，
have a conversation, get to know them, figure out what makes them tick.
那就去跟他聊天，去了解它们，弄清楚他们在意什么。
And then once we have, all we have to do
了解之后，我们所要做的，
is connect the dots between the values they already have and why they would care about a changing climate.
就是把他们在意的东西的那个点和他们为什么需要在意气候变化连接起来。
I truly believe, after thousands of conversations that I've had over the past decade and more,
在过去的十几年间，我在和人进行的数千次对话后，我真的相信，
that just about every single person in the world already has the values they need to care about a changing climate.
世界上的每个人的价值观念中已经有了需要关心气候变化这样的理念。
They just haven't connected the dots. And that's what we can do through our conversation with them.
他们只是还没有把那些小点连接起来。那这就是我们可以通过和他们对话去完成的。
The only reason why I care about a changing climate is because of who I already am.
我会在意气候变化的唯一原因就是我的身份。
I'm a mother, so I care about the future of my child.
我是个母亲，所以我关心自己孩子的未来。
I live in West Texas, where water is already scarce, and climate change is impacting the availability of that water.
我住在得克萨斯州西部，那里总是很缺水，气候变化正在影响着那里的蓄水量。

I'm a Christian, I care about a changing climate because it is, as the military calls it, a "threat multiplier."
我是个基督徒，我在乎气候变化因为它简直就是，用军队的话来说，就是个威胁倍增器。
It takes those issues, like poverty and hunger and disease
它给我们带来各种问题，比如贫穷、饥饿、疾病，
and lack of access to clean water and even political crises that lead to refugee crises
干净水源的短缺，甚至还有政治危机，政治危机又引起难民危机，
it takes all of these issues and it exacerbates them, it makes them worse.
气候变化引起这些问题又在加剧这些问题，它让事态越来越严重。
I'm not a Rotarian. But when I gave my first talk at a Rotary Club,
我不是扶轮社成员。但当我第一次在扶轮社的活动中演讲时，
I walked in and they had this giant banner that had the Four-Way Test on it. Is it the truth? Absolutely.
我刚进门，就看到墙上挂着巨大的横幅上面写着四大考验。这是真相吗？当然是。
Is it fair? Heck, no, that's why I care most about climate change, because it is absolutely unfair.
它公平吗？当然不公平，所以我才这么关心气候变化，因为它完全不公平。
Those who have contributed the least to the problem are bearing the brunt of the impacts.
那些在气候变暖中参与最少的人，却承受着它带来的大部分恶果。
It went on to ask: Would it be beneficial to all, would it build goodwill?
横幅上继续问道：这件事对全人类都有益吗，做这件事是出于好意吗？
Well, to fix it certainly would. So I took my talk, and I reorganized it into the Four-Way Test,
为了解决这个问题，我们当然是出于好意。于是我开始了演讲，并且把内容顺序换成了四大考验的顺序，
and then I gave it to this group of conservative businesspeople in West Texas.
然后给西得克萨斯州的这群保守的商人做完了这次演讲。
And I will never forget at the end, a local bank owner came up to me with the most bemused look on his face.
我也永远不会忘记，演讲结束后，一位当地的银行家满脸困惑的向我走过来。
And he said, "You know, I wasn't sure about this whole global warming thing, but it passed the Four-Way Test."
他说：“我不太懂这个全球变暖的问题，但反正它通过了四大考验。”
These values, though -- they have to be genuine.
我所讲的内容传递的价值观必须是真诚的。
I was giving a talk at a Christian college a number of years ago,
几年前我在基督教的一所教会学校做过一次演讲，
and after my talk, a fellow scientist came up and he said,
演讲结束后，一位同行科学家上来问我说：
"I need some help. I've been really trying hard to get my foot in the door with our local churches,
“我需要帮助。我一直想加入我们当地的一个教会，
but I can't seem to get any traction. I want to talk to them about why climate change matters."
但是并没有人理我。我也想跟他们谈论为什么气候变化很重要。”
So I said, "Well, the best thing to do is to start with the denomination that you're part of,
于是我说：“最好从你所在的那个教派开始入手，
because you share the most values with those people. What type of church do you attend?"
因为这样的话你们的大部分观点就会是相同的。你平常去哪种教堂？”
"Oh, I don't attend any church, I'm an atheist," he said.
“哦，我从来不去教堂。我是个无神论者”，他说。
I said, "Well, in that case, starting with a faith community is probably not the best idea.
我说：“这样的话，从一个有信仰的群体开始可能不太合适。
Let's talk about what you do enjoy doing, what you are involved in."
我们可以聊聊你喜欢什么以及你平时都干什么。”
And we were able to identify a community group that he was part of, that he could start with.
然后我们就可以弄清楚他属于哪个群体，以及他该从何处入手了。
The bottom line is, we don't have to be a liberal tree hugger to care about a changing climate.
我们的底线是，我们没必要为了宣传气候变化而去做自由主义的说客。
All we have to be is a human living on this planet.
我们只需要是这个星球上居住的人类就可以。
Because no matter where we live, climate change is already affecting us today.
因为不管我们住在哪里，气候变化每天都在影响着我们。
If we live along the coasts, in many places, we're already seeing "sunny-day flooding."
如果我们住在海边，我们在很多地方都可以看到涨潮时泛滥的洪水。
If we live in western North America, we're seeing much greater area being burned by wildfires.
如果我们住在北美西部，我们就会看见更多地区起的野火。
If we live in many coastal locations, from the Gulf of Mexico to the South Pacific,
如果我们住在沿海城市，如从墨西哥湾到南太平洋一线，
we are seeing stronger hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones, powered by a warming ocean.
我们会看见飓风、台风、旋风的强度越来越大，这都是由海水变暖引起的。
If we live in Texas or if we live in Syria,
如果我们住在得克萨斯州或者叙利亚，
we're seeing climate change supersize our droughts, making them more frequent and more severe.
我们就会看见气候变化把干旱的影响放大，让它发生的次数更加频繁而且越来越严重。
Wherever we live, we're already being affected by a changing climate.
无论我们住在哪里，我们都已经受到气候变化的影响。
So you might say, "OK, that's good. We can talk impacts.
可能你会说：“那很好啊。那我们就谈气候变化的影响。
We can scare the pants off people, because this thing is serious."
吓死他们，反正本来就很严重。”
And it is, believe me. I'm a scientist, I know.
确实是很严重。我是个科学家，相信我。
But fear is not what is going to motivate us for the long-term, sustained change that we need to fix this thing.
但是恐惧并不能激励我们去进行需要去解决这个问题的长期的、持续的改变。
Fear is designed to help us run away from the bear. Or just run faster than the person beside us.
恐惧只能让我们从熊的面前逃走。或者是让我们跑的比自己的同伴快一点。
What we need to fix this thing is rational hope. Yes, we absolutely do need to recognize what's at stake.
要解决这个问题，我们需要的是理性的希望。我们当然需要知道危险的存在。
Of course we do. But we need a vision of a better future
我们当然知道。但我们也需要看见更美好的未来，
a future with abundant energy, with a stable economy, with resources available to all,
那时能源充足，经济稳定，人人都可以分到资源，
where our lives are not worse but better than they are today. There are solutions.
那时我们的生活不会比现在差，反而会比现在好。解决办法是有的。
And that's why the second important thing that we have to talk about is solutions
所以我们需要讨论的第二重要的事就是解决办法，
practical, viable, accessible, attractive solutions.
实用的、可行的、易操作的、有吸引力的解决办法。
Like what? Well, there's no silver bullet, as they say, but there's plenty of silver buckshot.
比如呢？有人说，没有这样的一个万全之策，但我们可以有很多种办法。
There's simple solutions that save us money and reduce our carbon footprint at the same time. Yes, light bulbs.
有一个简单的方法可以帮我们省钱的同时还能减少碳足迹。是的，就是用灯泡。
I love my plug-in car. I'd like some solar shingles.
我也很喜欢我的混合式动力车。太阳能电池板很好用。
But imagine if every home came with a switch beside the front door,
但想想看如果每家的前门旁边都有一个开关，
that when you left the house, you could turn off everything except your fridge. And maybe the DVR.
当你离开家的时候，你只需要拉下这个就可以关掉除了冰箱以外的其他电源。可能还可以把监控排除在外。
Lifestyle choices: eating local, eating lower down the food chain
生活方式方面：吃当地的实物，吃食物链下层的食物，
and reducing food waste, which at the global scale, is one of the most important things that we can do to fix this problem.
还有从全球层面看，减少浪费是我们为解决全球变暖问题可以做到的最重要的事情之一。
I'm a climate scientist, so the irony of traveling around to talk to people about a changing climate is not lost on me.
我是个气候学家，所以环游世界跟各地的人聊气候变化不会让我动心。
The biggest part of my personal carbon footprint is my travel.
我的个人碳足迹中最大的源头就是旅行。
And that's why I carefully collect my invitations.
所以我接受邀请时很小心。
I usually don't go anywhere unless I have a critical mass of invitations in one place
我基本上哪都不去，除非我接到了在同一个地方的大量邀请，
anywhere from three to four to sometimes even as many as 10 or 15 talks in a given place
大概3-4个甚至是10到15个在同一个地方的才行，
so I can minimize the impact of my carbon footprint as much as possible.
这样我就能尽可能地减少自己的碳足迹的影响。
And I've transitioned nearly three-quarters of the talks I give to video.
我还把将近2/3的演讲换成了视频的形式。
Often, people will say, "Well, we've never done that before."
通常他们会说：“我们之前从来没这么做过。”
But I say, "Well, let's give it a try, I think it could work."
我就说：“试试吧，我觉得没问题。”
Most of all, though, we need to talk about what's already happening today around the world and what could happen in the future.
不过大部分时候我们都得聊聊今天已经发生的事和未来会发生什么事。
Now, I live in Texas, and Texas has the highest carbon emissions of any state in the United States.
我现在住在德克萨斯州，而得克萨斯州的碳排放量在全美各个州中排名第一。
You might say, "Well, what can you talk about in Texas?"
你可能会问：“你想讲得克萨斯州的什么事？”
The answer is: a lot. Did you know that in Texas there's over 25,000 jobs in the wind energy industry?
答案是：有很多。你们知道得克萨斯州的风能行业提供了超过25000个就业岗位吗？
We are almost up to 20 percent of our electricity from clean, renewable sources,
我们使用的电力中的接近20%都来自清洁可再生能源，
most of that wind, though solar is growing quickly.
大部分来自风能，不过太阳能也在快速发展。
The largest army base in the United States, Fort Hood, is, of course, in Texas.
美国最大的陆军基地Fort Hood当然也在德克萨斯。
And they've been powered by wind and solar energy now, because it's saving taxpayers over 150 million dollars. Yes.
他们也是使用的风能和太阳能，因为这给纳税人节约了1亿5千万美元。是的。
What about those who don't have the resources that we have?
还有那些没有我们拥有的这些资源的人怎么办呢？
In sub-Saharan Africa, there are hundreds of millions of people
在撒哈拉以南的非洲，有上千万人，
who don't have access to any type of energy except kerosine, and it's very expensive.
除了煤油没有别的任何能源可用，而且煤油价格昂贵。
Around the entire world, the fastest-growing type of new energy today is solar. And they have plenty of solar.
在全世界范围内，发展最快的新能源是太阳能。他们有充足的太阳能。
So social impact investors, nonprofits,
社会影响投资者，非营利组织，
even corporations are going in and using innovative new microfinancing schemes, like, pay-as-you-go solar,
就连企业也开始采用创新的小额融资计划，比如现收现付太阳能，
so that people can buy the power they need in increments, sometimes even on their cell phone.
这样人们就能以增量的方式购买所需的电力，有时甚至是在手机上。
One company, Azuri, has distributed tens of thousands of units across 11 countries, from Rwanda to Uganda.
一家名为Azuri的公司已经在11个国家（从卢旺达到乌干达）部署了数万台无人机。
They estimate that they've powered over 30 million hours of electricity and over 10 million hours of cell phone charging.
他们估计他们已经提供了超过3000万小时的电力和超过1000万小时的手机充电。
What about the giant growing economies of China and India?
那像中国和印度这样飞速发展的经济体呢？
Well, climate impacts might seem a little further down the road, but air quality impacts are right here today.
气候方面的影响可能要等一段时间再看，但空气质量的变化已经产生了。
And they know that clean energy is essential to powering their future.
他们也知道清洁能源对未来供能至关重要。
So China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy.
因此中国在清洁能源上投资了数亿美元。
They're flooding coal mines, and they're putting floating solar panels on the surface.
他们正在关停煤矿，还在上面搭建了悬浮太阳能电池板。
They also have a panda-shaped solar farm.
他们还有一个熊猫形状的太阳能农场。
Yes, they're still burning coal. But they've shut down all the coal plants around Beijing.
当然他们现在还在烧煤。但他们已经把北京周边的煤厂都关停了。
And in India, they're looking to replace a quarter of a billion incandescent light bulbs with LEDs,
在印度，人们正在将2.5亿的白炽灯替换成LED灯，
which will save them seven billion dollars in energy costs.
这会给他们在能源开支方面节省70亿美元。
They're investing in green jobs, and they're looking to decarbonize their entire vehicle fleet.
他们还投资绿色工程以及实行车辆去碳化。
India may be the first country to industrialize without relying primarily on fossil fuels.
印度可能是第一个不在早期依赖化石燃料实现工业化的国家。
The world is changing. But it just isn't changing fast enough.
世界正在改变。只是还不够快。
Too often, we picture this problem as a giant boulder sitting at the bottom of a hill,
我们总是把这件事想成是山脚下的一颗巨石，
with only a few hands on it, trying to roll it up the hill.
只有几只手在用力试图把它推上山顶。
But in reality, that boulder is already at the top of the hill.
但实际上，这颗巨石已经在山顶上了。
And it's got hundreds of millions of hands, maybe even billions on it, pushing it down.
有数千万甚至数亿只手按在上面，再把它往下推。
It just isn't going fast enough. So how do we speed up that giant boulder so we can fix climate change in time?
只是还不够快。那我们怎样加快速度，好及时解决气候变化的问题呢？
You guessed it. The number one way is by talking about it.
你们已经猜到了。第一件事就是去讨论它。
The bottom line is this: climate change is affecting you and me right here, right now, in the places where we live.
归根结底：气候变化正在影响你我，就在此时此地，就在我们居住的地方。
But by working together, we can fix it. Sure, it's a daunting problem.
但只要我们携起手来，我们就能解决这个它。当然，这是一个挑战性极大的问题。
Nobody knows that more than us climate scientists. But we can't give in to despair.
这一点没有人比我们大气科学家更清楚了。但我们不能屈服于绝望。
We have to go out and actively look for the hope that we need, that will inspire us to act.
我们应该走出家门，积极的去寻找希望，好激励我们去行动。
And that hope begins with a conversation today. Thank you.
这个希望就开始于今天的谈话。谢谢你们。