War on Peace tells the stories of a number of the diplomats

《War on Peace》讲述的是几个外交官的故事

who have been deeply engaged in North Korea diplomacy over the last several administrations.

他们在前几届政府中都与朝鲜的外交牵涉甚深

And I think it’s ahistorical when you hear people say, “Those were all failures, we didn’t get anything done.”

如果你听到人们说“这些都是失败 我们没有取得任何成果” 我觉得这与历史无关

Under the Clinton administration, we had a really substantive framework agreement with the North Koreans

克林顿总统在任的时候 我们与朝鲜有很多实质性的框架协议

where they made a lot of commitments that would have been very important in the long-term to slowing their progress as a nuclear power,

朝鲜做了很多承诺 从长远来看 这对减缓他们成为核力量的进程至关重要

and the United States actually reneged on a lot of the commitments that we made on our end.

而且美国其实违背了我们那时候所做的很多承诺

We were in no small part responsible for the collapse of that deal.

我们要对协议的崩溃负很大责任

Then subsequently during the George W. Bush administration, you had a situation where Bush, after the disasters of Iraq,

后来在乔治·布什任职期间 经过伊拉克的灾难后

set about doubling down on diplomacy and they lead six-party talks.

布什在外交上更加努力 他们领导了六方会谈

A career diplomat named Chris Hill went over there and spent countless hours talking to all of the players,

一位名叫Chris Hill的职业外交家前往朝鲜 花费了大量时间跟所有参与者会谈

and they actually shut down some of the reactors for the first time in years.

多年来他们竟然首次关闭了一些核反应堆

They were starting to give us some information about their nuclear development.

他们开始向我们透露一些核进展的信息

In the end, they did cheat, it did fall through, and that wasn’t our fault, but we did make some inroads.

最后 他们确实撒谎了 协议确实落空了 而且这不是我们的错 但我们也确实违背了一些诺言

Particularly in our conversation with China about North Korea, which is going to be a pivotal part of any solution going forward.

尤其是我们在与中国谈论朝鲜的时候 这对以后的解决方案至关重要

Now you see the Trump administration coming in with this kind of madcap approach: diplomacy by tweet,

现在你可以看到 特朗普政府采用的是鲁莽的方式：通过推特来外交

all of this saber rattling, and now potentially a meeting between leaders.

所有那些武力威胁 现在两国领导人还可能会面

And the reality is, we don’t know how that’s going to pan out.

事实是 我们不知道这件事是否会成功

Could it work? Sure.

会有效果吗？当然会

And I, and I think everyone else invested in this problem, sincerely hope that it does.

而且我相信所有全心投入在这件事上的人都希望它能富有成效

But what those experts whose stories are in War on Peace say,

但是《War on Peace》里面那些专家们的故事

one after another, is we are flying blind now and we don’t have to be.

却一个接一个地告诉我们 我们现在是在盲目飞行 而且毫无必要

You can have the same kind of saber-rattling and tough approach,

你可以有那些武力威胁和强硬的措施

you could have the same kind of leader-to-leader meeting and also insulate yourself against some of these pitfalls.

也可以有同样的领导人会面 同时还让自己远离这些陷阱

Make sure that we are not accidentally legitimizing the North Koreans as a nuclear power.

只要确保我们不要一不小心让朝鲜成为了合法的核力量就行

Make sure that we are hip to the fact that they very often lie about the kinds of commitments they’re making now and have done so in the past.

只要确保我们很清楚他们对现在所做的承诺有所撒谎 而且过去也是如此

There is a real risk here that we get played.

我们也很有可能被耍

Look, North Korea will continue to be perilous.

朝鲜依然会是个危险的国家

It was perilous under the previous regime; it is perilous now.

上一届政府的时候它就很危险 现在依然如此

I think that the thaw in relations between the North and the South is one of the most positive developments to come along,

我觉得朝鲜和韩国关系的回暖是最积极的进展之一

and that’s due to a number of factors, not just what’s happening in the United States right now.

这是很多因素共同作用的结果 不单单是美国的功劳

But ultimately, regardless of who is in the seat of power there,

但说到底 不管朝鲜是谁当权

we are going to need a core of experts who are experienced in the ways in which these regimes,

我们都需要一批对朝鲜的处事方式非常有经验的核心专家

one after another, are difficult and lie to the rest of the world and pose a threat to that region.

一届又一届的朝鲜政权都难以应付 还会对世界撒谎 给朝鲜半岛带来威胁

And I have complete confidence in one thing, which is: whoever comes along next in terms of North Korean leadership,

我对一件事非常确信 那就是：不管是谁接手处理美朝关系

we’re going to need some people who are really well-versed in dealing with that region if we want to keep them contained.

如果我们想要掌控他们 我们就需要一个对该地区情况非常精通的人

I think that the fondest desire of this regime in North Korea is to gain international acceptance as a nuclear power,

我觉得朝鲜政权最希望看到的就是国际社会接纳其成为一支核力量

and it’s very unclear that a meeting of any kind is going to halt that.

目前还不清楚有什么样的会议能够阻止这一点

They have certainly lied about the willingness to halt that before.

他们肯定曾撒谎说愿意停止核试验

The risk with this meeting is that we play into their hands and say,

这种会议的风险就在于 我们会正中其下怀 说

“Yeah, sure, we acknowledge you as an equal on the international stage,”

“对 当然 我们会在国际舞台上平等对待你们”

and we give up some of our leverage in having them want that contact, want that leader-to-leader access,

而且放弃一些让他们想要主动联系 想要领导人会面的手段

which could make the nitty-gritty work of actually implementing diplomacy and making sure that they are contained as a nuclear power that much more difficult.

这就会让实施外交并确保遏制朝鲜这支核力量的根本工作变得更加困难