(单词翻译:单击)
Welcome to Crash Course Economics, I'm Adriene Hill.
欢迎收看经济速成班，我是埃德因·希尔。
And I'm Jacob Clifford.
我是雅各布·克利福德。
Now, believe it or not, we actually read many of your comments on YouTube.
不管你信不信，我们在YouTube上确实看了很多你们的评论。
First! Some are productive and others not so much.
第一条！有些评论很有用，但其他的却没多大用处了。
This guy looks like Mark Cuban, but not as attractive...or rich.
这家伙看起来像马克·库班，但没那么吸引人……或富有。
We've noticed some people are disappointed we haven't covered the different economic ideologies.
我们注意到，有些人对我们还没讲不同的经济思想感到失望。
You're ignoring the Austrian School. What's this Keynesian trash?
你忽略了奥地利学派。什么是凯恩斯主义垃圾？
Well, guess what? Today, we're going to talk about other schools of economic thought.
好吧，你猜怎么着？我们今天就要讨论其他经济思想流派。
To understand these economic theories, we're gonna have to jump into a little bit of history.
要理解这些经济理论，我们必须了解一点儿经济历史。
In 1798, a British economist named Thomas Malthus argued that
1798年，一位名叫托马斯·马尔萨斯的英国经济学家认为
population growth would outpace food production,
人口增长的速度将超过粮食产量，
so eventually humans would run out of food and starve.
人类最终会耗尽食物并挨饿。
You wonder why some people call economics the dismal science.
你惊奇为什么有些人把经济学称为悲观科学。
Well, Malthus was wrong. Dismally wrong.
那是因为马尔萨斯错了，悲观得错了。
The world population has grown from one billion in his time to over seven billion today.
世界人口已经从他当时的10亿增长到现今的70多亿。
And it turns out that the famines we have seen are largely man-made disasters
而事实上，我们看到的饥荒主要是人为的灾难，
that have very little to do with our ability to produce food.
与我们生产食物的能力几乎无关。
But Malthus was writing at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
但马尔萨斯是在工业革命之初写的，
He didn't factor in advancements in technology, agriculture production or transportation.
他没有考虑技术、农业生产或运输方面的进步，
So with the information he had, he was kinda right, but he was still wrong.
所以就他手头的信息而言，他是对的，但事实是他错了。
Economic theories are constantly being proven, disproven and revised.
经济理论不断被证明、推翻和修正。
The problem is, when these theories are wrong, millions of people can be adversely affected.
但问题是，当这些理论错误时，数百万人可能会受到不利影响。
Take Malthus. Some scholars combined his ideas with those of Charles Darwin and concluded
以马尔萨斯为例。一些学者将他的观点与查尔斯·达尔文的观点相结合并得出结论：
that giving assistance to poor people and social programs like welfare are actually immoral.
向穷人和社会事业如福利提供援助实际是不道德的。
This is called Social Darwinism and it's completely wrong.
这被称为社会达尔文主义，它完全是错的。
Now, economics is not an exact science.
经济学不是一门精确的科学。
It aims to draw conclusions about human behavior without the benefits of labs or perfect control groups.
它的目的是在没有实验好处或完美对照组的情况下得出关于人类行为的结论。
Economic theories reflect different attitudes about human nature and those are likely to change over time.
经济理论反映了人们对人性的不同态度，并很可能随着时间的推移而改变。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
我们去看“Thought Bubble”。
The founder of modern economics was a Scottish philosopher named Adam Smith.
现代经济学的创始人是苏格兰哲学家亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）。
In 1776, his book The Wealth of Nations was published.
1776年，他的著作《国富论》出版了。
It was an organized discussion about production, markets and economic theory,
它对生产、市场与经济理论做了有条理的阐述，
and it was tremendously influential.
影响力非常巨大。
Smith introduced the idea that a person following their own self-interest could end up serving the common good.
史密斯提出了一种观点，即一个人按照自己的利益行事，最终可能会为公共利益服务。
He also advocated free trade.
他还提倡自由贸易。
Many countries at the time had heavy tariffs
当时许多国家征收重税，
which protected their domestic manufacturers at the expense of trade.
以牺牲贸易为代价保护本国的制造商。
A generation later, British economist David Ricardo expanded on Smith's ideas
一代人之后，英国经济学家大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)扩展了史密斯的观点，
by introducing the theory of comparative advantage:
他引入了比较优势理论：
the idea that two people or countries can both benefit from trade,
两人或两国都可以从交易中获益
even if one of them can produce more of everything.
即使他们中的一个能把每类产品生产得更多。
When both focus on what they're best at and then trade, everyone benefits.
当双方都专注于生产自己最擅长的产品然后进行交易时，双方都会受益。
Anyway, the field of economics grew advancing ideas like private property and free markets.
不管怎么说，经济领域的发展推进了私有财产和自由市场等先进思想。
And then along comes The Communist Manifesto in 1848.
1848年《共产党宣言》诞生了。
Rather than examining individual behavior,
德国哲学家卡尔·马克思（Karl Marx）和弗里德里希·恩格斯（Friedrich Engels）没有审查个人举止，
German philosophers Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels looked at economic classes
而是研究了经济阶级，
and argued that history was explained by the conflict between workers and property owners.
认为历史可用工人和财主之间的冲突来解释，
This process would inevitably lead workers to overthrow their bosses,
这一过程将不可避免地导致工人推翻老板，
ushering in a new stateless and classless system, called communism.
引入一个叫做共产主义的无国籍、无阶级的新体系。
Marx followed this up with Das Kapital.
马克思在《资本论》之后提出了这个观点。
Political movements spawned by Marxist economics challenged Adam Smith's view
马克思主义经济学催生的政治运动挑战了亚当·斯密
that individual self-interest serves the common good.
个人利益服务于公共利益的观点。
The end result was two main camps:
最终导致两大阵营的出现：
free market capitalism, supporting private property,
自由市场资本主义支持私有财产，
and communism, advocating collective ownership of the means of production.
共产主义则提倡集体所有制生产。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
Despite Marx's challenge, market-based economic theory continued to dominate through the end of the 19th century,
尽管马克思提出了挑战，但以市场为基础的经济理论仍在19世纪末占据主导地位。
with contributions from French, British, and American economics.
这是来自法国、英国和美国的经济贡献。
This body of thought is called Classical Economics,
这种思想体系被称为古典经济学，
and it was embodied in a book called Principles of Economics,
它体现在一本名为《经济学原理》的著作中，
published in 1890 by English Economist Alfred Marshall.
该书是英国经济学家阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔于1890年出版的。
Marshall organized and defined concepts we still use today,
马歇尔整理并定义了我们今天仍在使用的概念，
like supply and demand and marginal utility, which we're gonna get to soon.
比如供给、需求和边际效用，这些我们很快就会讲到。
But as capitalism was expanding around the world, Marxist movements were too.
但随着资本主义在世界范围内的扩张，马克思主义运动也在不断发展。
By the early 20th century, this battle for hearts and minds along with political and social unrest in Europe,
到20世纪初，这场伴随欧洲政治与社会动荡的人心争夺战
led to the establishment of the Soviet Union in 1922.
导致了1922年苏联的建立。
As Communism was maturing in the Soviet Union,
当共产主义在苏联成熟时，
the Great Depression crushed the market economies of the world's richest countries,
大萧条摧毁了世界上最富裕国家的市场经济，
it also dealt a devastating blow to Classical Economics.
这也给古典经济学带来了毁灭性打击。
The theories of Smith and Marshall didn't have much to say about
斯密和马歇尔的理论没有涉及
how something like this could happen, or how to fix it.
这类事件如何发生以及如何弥补的内容。
The British economist John Maynard Keynes proposed new answers
英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯
in his 1936 book, A General Theory of Money, Interest, and Employment,
在他1936年的著作《就业、利息和货币通论》中提出了新观点，
which basically launched the field of macroeconomics.
基本开启了宏观经济学领域。
Along with John Hicks, James argued that market economies don't self-correct quickly
和约翰·希克斯一样，詹姆斯认为市场经济不会很快自我纠正，
because prices and wages take time to adjust.
因为价格和工资需要时间来调整。
They claimed that during recessions,
他们声称在经济衰退期间，
it is necessary for the government to get involved
政府有必要介入，
by using monetary and fiscal policy to increase output and decrease unemployment.
运用货币和财政政策来增加产出并减少失业。
Keynes wasn't supporting Communism,
凯恩斯并不支持共产主义，
but his views directly challenged classical economists
但他的观点直接挑战了古典经济学家，
who saw government intervention as universally harmful for the economy.
后者认为政府干预对经济普遍有害。
Now eventually Keynesian Economics became part of mainstream economic theory.
现在，凯恩斯经济学最终成为主流经济学理论的一部分。
See? I told you, economic theory changes over time,
明白了吧，我告诉过你，经济理论随时间变化，
and all it took in this case was a catastrophic global depression.
这个案例中的所有一切都是灾难性全球萧条引起的。
Keynes's ideas, combined with the ever-present Marxist critique,
凯恩斯的观点加上无处不在的马克思主义批判
opened the door to more and more government involvement.
为越来越多的政府参与打开了大门。
Since the Great Depression, many nations have pursued a political and economic ideology called Socialism,
自从大萧条以来，许多国家都追求一种叫做社会主义的政治和经济思想，
although Socialist ideas and policies have been around since the 19th century.
尽管社会主义思想和政策自19世纪以来就一直存在着。
In most cases, these economies allow for private properties and markets,
在大多数情况下，这些经济体不仅有私有财产和市场，
but also have government ownership of industry, significant regulation,
而且还有国有行业、重要监管
and big public programs like universal healthcare.
以及全民医疗这样的大型公共项目。
In Scandinavian countries like Norway and Sweden, they love these socialist policies.
挪威、瑞典等斯堪的纳维亚国家喜欢这些社会主义政策。
Now the US has rejected many of these socialist ideas,
美国排斥许多社会主义思想，
but the US government, or at least economists that advise politicians,
但美国政府，或者至少是为政客提供建议的经济学家们
are clearly in favor of Keynesian economic policies when the economy's in trouble.
在经济陷入困境时，明显支持凯恩斯主义经济政策。
But as Socialism and Keynesian economics expanded,
但随着社会主义和凯恩斯主义经济的扩张，
other groups continued to forcefully push for private property and free markets.
其他团体继续大力推广私有财产和自由市场。
The most vocal was often the Austrian school of economics,
最直言不讳的是奥地利经济学派，
they also have a very vocal fanbase in our comments section.
他们在我们的评论区也有一个非常直言的粉丝群。
Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig Vunmises, who were unsurprisingly from Austria,
弗里德里希·哈耶克(Friedrich Hayek)和路德维希·文米塞斯(Ludwig Vunmises)是奥地利人，
argued that heavy state involvement has never produced the results it promised,
他们认为，政府的过度干预没有达成它的承诺，
and that regulation and government tinkering is actually a problem, not a solution.
监管和政府的补救实际是麻烦，而不是解决办法。
Rejecting nearly all forms of fiscal and monetary policy,
奥地利经济学派拒绝几乎所有形式的财政和货币政策，
the Austrian school today argues the economy's just to complicated to manipulate.
他们认为，操纵经济会复杂化。
This backlash against government intervention was carried forward in the US by Milton Friedman.
在美国，米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)对政府干预的反对情绪进行了提振。
Like the Austrians, Friedman advocated privatization of many functions that had been assumed by government,
与奥地利学派一样，弗里德曼主张私有化许多由政府承担的职能，
famously proposing school vouchers and deregulation of the economy.
提出了非常有名的教育券和放松经济管制等建议。
He also concluded that the depression could be blamed on botched monetary policy
他还得出结论，经济大萧条可能归咎于拙劣的货币政策，
rather than some inherent fault of capitalism.
而不是资本主义固有的缺陷。
The theories of Friedman and his followers at the University of Chicago
弗里德曼及其芝加哥大学的追随者
came to be called the Chicago School of economics.
后来被称为芝加哥经济学派。
Friedman's views got a huge boost in the 1970's.
弗里德曼的观点在20世纪70年代蓬勃发展。
At that time, inflation soared while output stagnated.
当时，通胀飙升，而产出却停滞不前。
Remember stagflation? A combination that Keynesian economics had trouble reconciling.
还记得滞胀吧？这是凯恩斯经济学难以调和的一个组合。
Some macroeconomists drew on the insights of the Chicago school
一些宏观经济学家借鉴了芝加哥学派的观点，
to claim that these events disprove Keynesian economics.
声称这些事件反驳了凯恩斯主义经济学的正确性。
Building on the ideas of Friedman, another idea of economics gained traction: monetarism.
在弗里德曼思想的基础上，另一种经济学观点得到了关注：货币主义。
Whoo, Stan, so many -isms.
唔，斯坦，这么多的主义。
Monetarists focused on price stability
货币学派强调价格稳定，
and argue the money supply should be increased slowly and predictably to allow for steady growth.
主张货币供给应该缓慢而可预测地增长，以保持稳定增长。
At about the same time, another theory called supply-side economics,
当时还有另一种叫做供应学派经济学
or sometimes called trickle-down economics entered the mainstream.
或者有时称为涓滴经济学的理论进入了主流。
Supply side economics advocated deregulation and cutting taxes, especially corporate taxes.
供应学派经济学提倡放松管制和减税，尤其是公司税。
Mainstream economics today takes ideas from both classical economics,
如今的主流经济学吸收了两种古典经济学
including monetarism, and Keynesian economics.
包括货币主义和凯恩斯主义经济学的观点。
This unified theory is sometimes called the New Neoclassical Synthesis.
这种统一理论有时被称为新新古典综合。
And yeah, economists are bad at naming things, too.
是的，经济学家也不善于命名事物。
But debates about how and when to implement policies continue.
但是关于如何以及何时执行政策的争论仍在继续。
And remember, these are more than just intellectual classroom spats,
记住，这些政策不仅是知识课堂争吵用的，
these policies affect millions of people.
还影响着数百万人。
The different reactions to the global recession in 2008 are a good example of this.
2008年对全球衰退的不同反应就是一个很好的例子。
Some economists suggested using Keynesian policies, namely deficit spending.
一些经济学家建议使用凯恩斯主义政策，即寅吃卯粮。
Other economists suggested the more classical approach of reigning
其他经济学家提出了更经典的统治方式，
in excess spending to reduce budget deficits, something called austerity.
过度支出以减少预算赤字，即所谓的紧缩。
Believe it or not, economists are still fighting about
信不信由你，经济学家还在争论
which of these policies is the right approach and when to use them.
哪些政策是对的，以及何时使用它们。
We can all agree that Keynes was right about at least one thing,
我们都同意凯恩斯至少在一件事是对的，
when he said, "Ideas shape the course of history."
他说：“思想塑造历史的进程。”
So where are all these economic theories and ideologies gonna take us in the future?
那么，这些经济理论和思想将在未来带我们走向何方？
Most countries that once supported strict Communism like China and Cuba have moved toward Capitalism.
曾经支持严格共产主义的大多数国家如中国和古巴已经转向了资本主义。
The only country that's really sticking with it is North Korea,
唯一真正坚持严格共产主义的国家是朝鲜，
but they're too isolated to be a real test case for an economics system.
但它太过孤立，无法成为对整个经济体系的真正考验。
But this doesn't mean that Marxism is dead.
但这并不意味着马克思主义消亡了。
Many capitalist countries have adapted socialist looking programs.
许多资本主义国家已经适应了社会主义面貌的项目。
It appears the world's economies are converging towards the middle.
看来世界经济正在向中间靠拢。
but in the end, it turns out it's just really hard to predict the future,
但最后，我们发现很难预测未来，
especially when we're talking about something as complex as the world economy.
特别是当我们谈到像世界经济这样复杂问题的时候。
Remember Malthus's belief that we're all gonna starve?
记住马尔萨斯的我们都要挨饿的信念。
Well like Malthus, we don't know what kind of changes humanity's gonna face in the future.
就像马尔萨斯一样，我们不知道人类在未来会面临什么样的变化。
If history has proven anything about economic thought,
如果历史已经证明了某个经济思想，
it's that we should expect surprises that will upset our current economic models,
那么它应该是我们期待的意外，能够颠覆我们当前的经济模式，
just like Malthus couldn't imagine that we'd all be alive today.
就像马尔萨斯无法想象，我们今天都还活着。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
CrashCourse Economics is made with the help of these nice people;
经济速成班是由这群好心人制作的。
feel free to comment on how great they are, too.
请随意评论他们的伟大。
CrashCourse is made possible by your support at Patreon.
多亏了你支持Patreon，经济速成班才能办下去。
You can help keep CrashCourse free for everyone forever and get great rewards at Patreon.com.
你可以帮助支持Patreon的速成课程，让它们向所有人永远免费开放，并在patreon.com.上获得奖励。
Thanks for watching. We're glad Malthus was wrong, and that you're alive.
感谢您的收看，我们很高兴马尔萨斯错了，你们仍活着。
