(单词翻译:单击)
Hi, I'm Adrienne Hill.
嗨，我是埃德因·希尔。
And I'm Jacob Clifford, welcome to Crash Course Economics.
我是雅各布·克利福德，欢迎收看经济速成班。
What's wrong with you?
你怎么啦？
Today we're talking about deficits and debt.
我们今天讨论的是赤字和债务。
You've probably heard a lot about the national debt,
你可能听过很多国债的事情，
so what is it and where does it come from,
那么它是什么，它来自哪里，
is it a problem, and most importantly, should you even care?
它是个问题吗？而且最重要的是，你应该关心吗？
First off, deficit and debt are not the same thing.
首先，赤字和债务不是一回事。
A budget deficit is when the government spends more than it bring in tax revenue in a given year.
预算赤字指的是政府在某一特定年份里，支出超过税收收入。
Then it has to borrow money to cover that year's shortfall.
然后，它不得不借钱来弥补那一年的亏空。
The debt is an accumulation of budget deficits.
债务是预算赤字的累积。
For example, let's start a country called, I don't know, Cliffordonia. It's a pretty cool name.
举个例子，让我们从一个叫...我不知道...克利夫多尼亚的名字开始讲起。这个名字很酷。
In its first year, the Cliffordonian government brings in 400 dollars of tax revenue,
第一年，克利夫多尼亚政府的税收收入是400美元，
and it spends 500 dollars, because starting a new country is kinda expensive.
它的支出是500美元，因为开创一个新国家有点儿昂贵。
So in that year, the deficit is 100 dollars.
所以那一年的赤字是100美元。
Then, in the next year it brings in 600 dollars of tax revenue, but it spends 800 dollars.
随后第二年，它的税收收入是600美元，但支出800美元，
That year's deficit is 200 dollars.
这年的赤字是200美元。
To calculate Cliffordonia's debt, add up all those yearly deficits.
要想算克利夫多尼亚的债务，就把每年的赤字加起来。
So at the end of the second year, it has a debt of 300 dollars,
所以到了第二年年底，它有300美元的债务，
100 dollars from the first year, 200 dollars from the second year.
第一年的100美元和第二年的200美元。
Things are looking pretty tough for Cliffordonia.
对克利夫多尼亚来说，情况看起来相当艰难。
Not only is the nation in debt, it also has an average tax revenue of only 500 dollars a year.
不仅是国家负债，而且它每年的平均税收收入只有500美元。
It's going to be difficult getting the space program off the ground at that rate.
以这样的速度进行太空计划很困难。
Let's leave the plight of Cliffordonia behind for a moment and talk about the real world.
让我们暂时抛开克利夫多尼亚的困境，谈谈现实世界。
Specifically, let's talk about the United States, since it has the largest debt, hooray, American 1!
具体点儿，我们来谈谈美国，因为它有最大的债务，万岁，美国第一!
So how big is the debt right now? 18,236,176,274,963.
那么它现在的债务是多少呢？18.236176274963万亿。
No, wait, 18,236,176,188 dollars, it's hard to keep up with, but it's a little over 18 trillion dollars.
不，等等，是18.236176188万亿美元，它很难跟上，但微微超过了18万亿美元。
So the number sounds really, really high.
所以这个数字听起来真的很大很大。
I have a hard enough time wrapping my head around millions and billions, not to mention trillions.
我的脑袋对几百万、几十亿就转不过来了，更别提上万亿了。
The debt seems especially high when you look at the trend over time.
随着时间的推移，你会发现债务似乎特别高。
First we need to adjust that trend for inflation because dollars today are not the same as dollars in the past.
首先，我们需要调整通货膨胀的趋势，因为如今的美元和过去的美元不一样。
Remember, we try to keep it real around here.
记住，我们试着保持真实。
Second, we really should be looking at debt as a percent of GDP.
其次，我们真的应该把债务看成GDP的占比。
Why? Well, suppose I owe 200 bucks, and a 6 year-old owes 100 dollars.
为什么呢？假设我欠了200美元，一个6岁孩童欠了100美元。
Which of us will have a harder time paying it off?
我们中哪一个更难偿还呢?
Well, probably the 6 year old, because even though my actual debt number is larger, I have a job.
嗯，可能是6岁孩童，因为即使我的实际债务更大，但我有工作。
I have two jobs. What's your allowance, you are unemployed, 6 year-old?
我有两个工作。6岁小孩，你的津贴是什么，你失业了？
In the same way, our GDP grows every year, due to population growth and productivity increases.
同理，因为人口增加和生产力增长，我们的GDP每年也在增长。
And out ability to sustain our debt grows along with our income.
我们维持债务的能力和我们的收入一起增长。
So here is the US federal government debt as a percent of GDP.
所以这是美国联邦政府债务占GDP的百分比。
As you can see, it's risen over the past several years, so, is that a bad thing?
正如你所见，它在过去的几年里增加了，所以，这是一件坏事？
Well, there's a couple ways to look at it.
我们有很多方法来看它。
First, compare the US to other developed nations.
首先，将美国与其他发达国家进行比较。
The US has a higher debt-to-GDP than other countries, but several other countries have a much higher ratio.
美国债务与GDP的比率高于其他国家，但有几个其他国家的债务比率更高。
Some of these are in crisis, like Greece and Italy,
它们中有些陷入危机，比如希腊和意大利，
but there are also countries that are stable, like Japan and France,
但也有一些国家很稳定，比如日本和法国，
that have much higher levels of debt than the US.
它们的债务水平比美国高得多。
Second, most economists aren't concerned about the borrowing the US has done already,
其次，大多数经济学家并不担心美国已采取的借贷行为，
because they're too worried about the borrowing they're gonna do.
因为他们太担心将要进行的借贷。
A lot of politicians and pundits have freaked out about this, while economists are focused on this.
许多政客和专家对此感到不安，而经济学家则专注于此。
Alright. What we need to figure out is what's driving those huge deficits in coming decades.
好吧，我们需要弄清楚的是，在未来几十年里，是什么导致了这些巨额赤字。
Deficits are the difference between federal spending and revenue.
赤字是联邦支出和收入的差额。
So let's look at those as a percent of GDP.
因此我们来看看这些GDP占比。
The problem isn't a drop off in tax revenue.
问题不是税收减少。
What economists are worried about is spending.
经济学家担心的是支出。
So let's look at where the government actually spends its money.
所以我们来看看政府支出的实际去向。
Conservatives might complain 'it's obvious, handouts!'.
保守党可能会抱怨“很明显，宣传品!”
Liberals will say 'it's obvious, defense!'. Well, they're both wrong.
自由党会说，“显而易见，防御！”嗯，它们都是错误的。
So who's the biggest recipient of federal dollars? Grandma and Grandpa.
那么谁是联邦资金的最大接受者呢？爷爷奶奶。
The government spends about a quarter of the budget on Social Security,
政府支出约四分之一的预算用于社会保障，
and another quarter on healthcare programs.
另一四分之一预算用于医疗保健项目。
A lot of that goes to retired people on Medicare.
很多钱都是给退休人员的医疗保险。
They deserve it! They worked hard.
这是他们应得的！因为他们努力工作。
And those are the programs that are expected to grow as Baby Boomers retire and live longer.
随着婴儿潮时期出生的人退休并长寿，这些项目预算将会增加。
Defense and other discretionary programs are actually projected to shrink slightly as a percent of GDP.
国防和其他可自由支配项目在GDP的占比中估计会略微减少。
We'll be making another video on these specific topics later,
稍后我们将会针对这些具体的主题制作另一个视频，
because we love making videos, but one thing is for sure:
因为我们喜欢制作视频，但有一件事是肯定的：
US policy makers will be forced to make some hard decisions about these future unfunded liabilities.
美国政策制定者将被迫对这些未来的无资金债务做出一些艰难决定。
So the answer is obviously to just keep borrowing more and more money, right?
所以答案显然是不断地借钱，对吧？
Well, not necessarily. Let's go to the thought bubble.
也许吧，但不一定。让我们进入“thought bubble”。
First, to borrow, you need lenders, people who have decided to save money and loan it out,
首先，要借钱，你需要贷款人，即那些决定存钱并贷款的人，
rather than spend it on something else.
他们没把钱花在别的事情上。
But there's a finite amount of money savers can lend,
但储蓄者能借出的钱是有限的，
and most of that savings is borrowed by the private sector,
并且大部分存款都是由私人部门借的，
which is consumers that take out car loans, and businesses that pay for things like factories and computers.
他们是拿出汽车贷款的消费者，以及为工厂和电脑支付费用等之类的企业。
Now, when the government runs a budget deficit, it borrows from that same pool of savings.
现在，当政府出现预算赤字时，它会从同样的存款中借款。
If the government continues to borrow,
如果政府一直借，
many economists worry that there'll be fewer loans available for businesses,
许多经济学家担心企业的贷款会减少，
and that it'll hurt the long run growth of the economy.
这将损害经济的长期增长。
The second worry is the Greece scenario.
第二个担忧是希腊的情况。
A country's debt could grow so large
国家的债务增长到很大，
that savers, individuals, and businesses in other continents might fear they'll never get paid back.
以至于其他国家的借款人、个体和商人可能担心他们不会还钱。
They could stop lending money entirely, or they can lend at higher interest rates.
他们可能会完全停止放贷，或者以更高的利率放贷。
Higher interest rates would make it harder to pay back the loan,
更高利率的放贷会使还债变得更加困难，
which could likely lead to more debt, and eventually the government would simply be unable to pay its bills.
这可能会导致更多的债务，最终政府将无力支付账单。
That's called 'default', and it's basically terrible for everyone,
这叫做“违约”，对每个人来说都很糟糕，
the investors who loaned the government money lose billions,
借钱给政府的投资者损失数十亿美元，
and the government loses all credibility, and it causes a massive recession.
政府失去所有的公信力，并且导致大规模衰退。
That's what happened to Greece a few years ago, what happened to Argentina in 2001,
这就是几年前发生在希腊、2001年发生在阿根廷、
Russia in 1998, and many other countries throughout history.
1998年发生在俄罗斯和历史上许多国家的事情。
Thanks thought bubble.
感谢“thought bubble”。
Fortunately, the US has something called 'the debt ceiling',
幸运的是，美国有“债务上限”,
which is a cap on how much debt the US Treasury can issue.
就是美国财政部可以发行多少债务的上限。
The US will never ever ever be able to borrow more than the ceiling,
美国永远无法借到比上限更多的钱，
so debt can never get out of control! Hmmm, no.
所以债务永远无法失控！嗯，不是这样的。
Remember the debt comes from repeated deficits.
记住，债务来自反复的赤字。
Deficits come from spending higher than revenues.
赤字来自支出高于收入。
The debt ceiling does nothing to cut spending or raise revenue.
债务上限对削减支出或增加收入没用。
It just gets politicians into a big fight every few months.
它只会让政客们每隔几个月就大吵一场。
Basically, trying to cut the debt without raising revenue or cutting spending
基本上，不用增加收入或减少支出就削减债务
is like trying to lose weight by buying smaller clothes instead of with diet or exercise. It doesn't work.
就像通过购买较小的衣服，而不是用饮食或运动来减肥。没用！
But there is good news for the US.
但美国有个好消息。
First, both American and foreign lenders charge the US government extremely low interest on its loans.
首先，美国和国外贷款机构对美国政府的贷款利率都极低。
That tells us they're confident in the government's ability to pay them back,
这告诉我们，他们对政府偿还债务的能力很有信心，
and the low interest rates actually make it easier for the government to pay.
而且低利率实际让政府更容易还钱。
Second, there are signs that the growth and healthcare costs could actually be slow.
其次，有迹象表明，增长和医疗成本实际有可能会放缓。
Now, it's too early to tell if this is true,
现在说它是否属实还过早，
but if it is, the long-run budget picture will be much better than what we've shown.
但如果是真的，长期的预算状况将比我们所展示的要好得多。
In fact, the projections for long run deficits and debt have already been revised downward. Go US!
事实上，长期赤字和债务的预测已经向下修正。美国，向前!
So is all this debt going to destroy the American way of life?
那么，所有这些债务会摧毁美国人的生活方式吗？
Like most things in economics and in Crash Course, the answer is complicated,
和经济学以及速成课中的大多数东西一样，答案很复杂，
and it depends a lot on what you're looking at, as well as your political point of view.
这在很大程度上取决于你所看到的以及你的政治观点。
Looking at debt from the past or even the present is a good way to have political arguments,
从过去或现在来看，债务是一个很好的政治观点，
but it may not be a great way to think about the future.
但它可能不是思考未来的好方法。
Right now healthcare spending is driving the debt higher,
现在，医疗支出推动债务增加，
but if a massive pandemic kills off half the world, or there's a zombie apocalypse,
但是如果大规模流行病杀死了大半个世界，或有一个《僵尸启示录》,
after an initial spike, those healthcare costs are gonna fall.
在最初的飙升之后，这些医疗费用将会下降。
And frankly, in that case, the national debt and deficit spending will be the least of our worries.
坦率地说，在这种情况下，国债和赤字开支将是我们最不担心的。
On that cheery note, we've gotta stop. Thanks for watching; see ya next time.
在那个愉快的纸条上，我们必须停下来。谢谢您的收看，下次再见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It was made with the help of all these nice people who do not have a deficit of talent.
经济速成班是由一群没有赤字天赋的好心人制作的。
If you'd like to help keep CrashCourse free for everyone forever, please consider going over to Patreon.
如果你想让速成班继续免费为大家服务，请到Patreon去订购。
It's a voluntary subscription platform
它是自愿订阅平台，
that allows you to pay whatever you want monthly to help Crash Course exist.
这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西。
Thanks for watching, and don't forget to be irrationally exuberant.
感谢您的收看。别忘了“非理性繁荣”。
