(单词翻译:单击)
Hi I'm Adriene Hill, welcome back to Crash Course Economics.
嗨，我是希尔·埃德因，欢迎回到经济速成班。
As you may remember from our first video,
你们可能还记得我们的第一期视频，
economics can be divided into two parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics.
经济学分成两部分：宏观经济学和微观经济学。
Since macroeconomics is the one that's most often in the news, that's where we're gonna start.
因为宏观经济学在新闻中经常出现，所以我们从它讲起。
We'll get to microeconomics, which is also super important in future episodes,
我们会讲到微观经济学，它在以后的章节中也是非常重要的。
but what is macroeconomics again?
但宏观经济学又是什么呢？
It's the study of economic aggregates revealed through national income accounting, which is then...
它是通过国民收入核算来揭示经济总量的研究，它...
Okay okay, when you explain it like that it sounds boring but it is not boring!
好了好了，你解释它的时候听起来很无聊，但它很有趣！
Macroeconomics is about booms and busts,
宏观经济学是关于繁荣和萧条的学科，
will you get a job when you graduate, should the government cut taxes?
你毕业后会得到一份工作吗？政府应该减税吗？
In theory, lowering marginal tax rates would actually increase...
理论上，降低边际税率实际会增加...
No no no! Remember, the goal of learning economics is to become a better decision maker,
不不不！记住，学习经济学的目的是成为更好的决策者，
and part of that is learning how the whole economy works.
其中有一部分就是学习整个经济如何运作的。
So, macroeconomics is the study of the entire economy.
因此，宏观经济学是对整个经济的研究。
Macroeconomists study the big stuff,
宏观经济学家研究宏观问题，
like economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and government policies.
比如经济产量、失业、通货膨胀、利率和政府政策。
Now when it comes to fields of study, macroeconomics is a relatively new subject.
在研究领域，宏观经济学是一个相对较新的课题。
It wasn't until the Great Depression in the 1930's
直到20世纪30年代的大萧条，
that economists fully appreciated the need for a systematic way to measure the overall economy,
经济学家才充分认识到我们需要有系统的方法来衡量整体经济，
and that we might need theories to guide policies and fix potential problems.
可能也需要理论来指导政策和解决潜在问题。
A hundred years ago, there was no comprehensive data on economic activity, so there was no macroeconomics.
一百年前，我们还没有关于经济活动的全面数据，所以也就没有经济学。
Today, economic data is plentiful, but that doesn't mean that economists agree about
如今，经济数据很充足，但这并不意味着经济学家们
where the economy is, where it's going, or what should be done to help.
就经济现状、走向以及我们应该做什么才有所帮助达成共识。
Macroeconomists make predictions based on data, theoretical models and historical trends,
宏观经济学家根据数据、理论模型和历史趋势做出预测，
but in the end they're just predictions.
但最终他们也只是预测而已。
If you ask three economists the same question, you're likely to get three different answers,
如果你问三位经济学家同样的问题，可能会听到三个不同的答案，
but how, you ask, can the dismal "science" be so subjective?
但是你会问，沉闷的“科学”怎么会如此主观呢？
Well, economics is not a traditional science because it is nearly impossible to control all the different variables.
经济学不是一门传统科学，因为要控制所有不同变量几乎不可能。
Like all the social sciences, economics is studying people, and it turns out that sometimes people are unpredictable.
与所有社会科学一样，经济学研究的是人，事实证明人有时是不可预测的。
I challenge all of you to a tournament of champions in Flappy Bird!
我向你们所有人挑战，在《疯狂的小鸟》比赛中获胜。
Who saw that coming?
谁会看到它的到来？
That doesn't mean that economics is all guesswork.
但这并不意味着经济学都是猜测。
For example, right now in early 2015, the economy of Greece is, well it's not, it's not good.
例如，现在是2015年年初，希腊的经济...不好。
But how can we tell, and is it gonna get better? Is it gonna get worse?
但是我们怎么才能知道，它会变好，还是变得更糟？
What should be done about it?
我们应该对此做些什么呢？
These are all questions that macroeconomists try to answer,
这些都是宏观经济学家试图回答的问题，
but for this video, we're gonna focus on the question "How can we tell?"
但在这段视频中，我们要关注的是“我们如何知道？”
Well in general, policy makers have three economic goals:
总的来说，政策制定者有三个经济目标：
they want to keep the economy growing over time, they want to limit unemployment,
他们希望保持经济长期增长、限制失业、
and they want to keep prices stable.
保持物价稳定。
Now for the most part when these three things happen,
当这三个目标实现的大多数时候，
the citizens are happy, politicians get reelected, and economists get raises.
公民幸福，政治家们重新当选，经济学家也得到了加薪。
There are three specific measurements that economists analyze to see if a country is achieving each goal.
经济学家分析三个具体衡量标准，来看一个国家是否实现了每个目标，
They're the Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, and the inflation rate.
它们分别是国内生产总值、失业率和通货膨胀率。
The most important measure of an economy is Gross Domestic Product or GDP.
衡量一国经济最重要的指标是国内生产总值(GDP)。
GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced within a country's border in a specific period of time, usually a year.
GDP是指一国在某一特定时期(通常为一年)内生产所有商品和服务的最终价值。
Now there are some details worth mentioning.
有些细节值得一提。
GDP doesn't include every transaction that's in the economy.
GDP不包括经济中的所有交易。
For example, if you buy a used domestic car, it doesn't count towards GDP because nothing new was produced.
举个例子，如果你买了一辆二手的国产车，它不会计入GDP，因为没有新产品产生。
Now that same logic applies to buying financial assets like stocks,
同样的逻辑也适用于购买股票这样的金融资产，
or when one company buys another company, for example when Google bought YouTube.
或是公司收购，比如谷歌收购YouTube。
Those don't count towards GDP because no new good or service was produced.
这些不计入GDP，因为没有新产品或服务产生。
Also, GDP often doesn't include illegal activity,
另外，GDP通常不包括非法活动，
since drug dealers don't usually report their sales to the government,
因为毒贩通常不会向政府报告他们的销售情况，
or non-traditional economic activity like household production.
也不包括家庭生产这样的非传统经济活动。
For example, if a plumber charges someone 100 dollars to fix their hot water heater, that counts towards GDP,
例如，如果一个水管工收取100美元修理某人的热水器，就计入GDP，
when he fixes his own water heater, that doesn't count towards GDP.
但当他修理自己的热水器时，就不算GDP。
Here's a list of countries organized by GDP.
以下是用GDP统计的国家列表。
Notice that GDP is measured in dollars, not in the raw number of things produced.
请注意，GDP是以美元、而不是产品的原始数量来衡量的。
If we analyzed just the raw number, then a country that produced five million thumbtacks
如果我们只分析原始数量，那么一个生产了500万个图钉的国家，
would look like they're doing just as well as a country that produced five million cars,
就会看起来和一个生产了500万辆汽车的国家一样。
but there's also a problem with using the dollar value of stuff produced: it's inflation.
但用美元衡量产品的价值也有一个问题，那就是通货膨胀。
If two countries produce the same amount of cars, but one has higher prices,
如果两个国家生产的汽车数量相同，但有个国家的价格更高，
then that country's going to have a higher nominal GDP, or GDP not adjusted for inflation.
那么这个国家的名义GDP就会更高，或者叫做不经通胀调整的GDP。
To get a more accurate idea of the health of the economy,
为了更准确地了解经济的健康状况，
economists look at Real GDP, which is GDP adjusted for inflation.
经济学家们会看实际GDP，即经通胀调整后的GDP。
Just what "adjusted for inflation" means is really important,
“调整通胀”的含义非常重要，
but too big of a topic to discuss right now. We'll get to it.
但是现在讨论这个话题过大了，我们将来会讲。
So what does the Real GDP in Greece tell us about its economy?
那么希腊的实际GDP告诉了我们什么呢？
In 2013, the Greek Real GDP was around 242 billion dollars,
2013年，希腊的实际GDP约为2420亿美元，
but that number doesn't really mean anything until you compare it to previous years.
但是这个数字并不意味着什么，除非你把它和前几年比较。
In 2012, it was 250 billion dollars, in 2011, it was 288 billion, and in 2010 it was 300 billion.
2012年，它的GDP是2500亿美元，2011年是2880亿美元，2010年是3000亿美元。
In fact, starting in 2008, Greece has had six years of decreasing GDP,
事实上，从2008年开始，希腊的GDP已经连续六年下降了。
and the data reveals that this recession is just as deep and prolonged as the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930's.
数据显示，这次衰退和20世纪30年代的美国大萧条一样，影响深远、旷日持久。
Now, I just used the term recession, which a lot of people use incorrectly.
现在，我只是用了“recession”这个词，很多人都把它用错了。
A recession is not just when the economy's bad,
经济衰退不仅仅是指经济糟糕的时候，
officially it's when two successive quarters or six months show a decrease in Real GDP.
官方上，连续两个季度或六个月的实际GDP下降，也属于衰退。
Even though the economy in Greece is still struggling,
尽管希腊的经济仍在苦苦挣扎，
it climbed out of its recession in 2014, experiencing a slight increase in GDP.
但它在2014年走出了衰退，GDP略有增长。
A depression, on the other hand, doesn't have a technical definition,
另一方面，经济萧条没有技术定义，
but it's a severe recession, when the economy's really really bad.
但它是指经济严重衰退，经济真得非常糟糕的时候。
It's worth noting though that GDP can be a little problematic.
值得注意的是，GDP可能有点儿问题。
I mean not all countries measure GDP in the same way,
我的意思是，不是所有国家都以同样的方式来衡量GDP，
and in recent years some European Union countries have started experimenting with counting underground markets,
近年来，一些欧盟国家已经开始尝试计入黑市，
like the sex trade and drug trade as part of the total.
比如性交易和毒品交易也计入总数。
In fact, GDP isn't even that old an idea.
事实上，GDP不是个旧观念。
According to Robert Froyen, during the Great Depression, economic decisions were made
根据罗伯特·弗罗恩的说法，在大萧条期间，经济决定
"on the basis of such sketchy data as stock price indices, freight car loadings, and incomplete indices of industrial production.
“基于这些粗略数据作为股票价格指数、货运汽车载荷以及工业生产的不完整指标。
The fact was that comprehensive measures of national income and output did not exist at the time.
事实上，当时并不存在国家收入和产出的综合措施。
The depression, and with it the growing role of government in the economy,
经济萧条期间，政府在经济中的作用越来越大，
emphasized the need for such measures and led to the development of a comprehensive set of national income accounts."
它强调有必要采取措施，并制订一套全面的国民收入帐户。”
So GDP was invented to account for national income,
因此，GDP是为国民收入而发明的，
and it may not necessarily provide a complete picture of a country's economy,
而且它不一定能提供一个国家经济的完整图景，
but for the moment it's what we've got.
但就目前而言，它就是我们所得。
So that's economic growth, or at least one way to look at economic growth.
所以它是经济增长，或者至少是一种看待经济增长的方式。
now, for the next big issue for macroeconomists: unemployment.
现在，宏观经济学家面临下一个大问题：失业。
Anyway, the major goal of unemployment policy is to limit unemployment,
无论如何，失业政策的主要目标是限制失业，
and that's measured by, you guessed it, the unemployment rate.
它的衡量标准，你猜到了，就是失业率。
In Greece, unemployment is over 25%.
在希腊，失业率超过了25%。
The unemployment rate is calculated by taking the number of people that are unemployed
失业率的计算方法是用失业的人数
and dividing by the number of people in the labor force, times 100.
除以劳动力人数，再乘以100。
Now this percentage represents the number of people that are actively looking for a job but just can't find one.
这个百分比代表了积极找工作但却找不到的人数。
First, the labor force only includes people that are of legal working age and working or actively looking for work,
第一，劳动力只包括达到法定工作年龄、工作或积极找工作的人。
so little kids don't count and neither do people who aren't able to work or who just choose not to work.
因此，小孩子不算数，不工作或者选择不工作的人也不算数。
So what about someone who's been looking for a job but just gives up?
那么，那些一直找工作却放弃的人呢？
Well, they're no longer part of the labor force, and they're no longer considered unemployed.
他们不再是劳动力的一部分，也不再被认为是失业者。
These are called discouraged workers.
他们被称为丧志工人。
The unemployment rate also doesn't take into account people that are underemployed.
失业率也没有考虑到未充分就业的人。
A worker with a five hour a week part time job is considered fully employed even if they're looking for a better job.
一个每周工作5个小时的兼职工人也被认为是充分就业，即使他们在找一份更好的工作。
In both of these cases, the official unemployment rate underestimates the problems in the labor market.
在这两种情况下，官方的失业率低估了劳动力市场的问题。
A common misconception is that the goal is to have 0% unemployment,
一个常见误解是，失业率目标为0%，
but it turns out there's types of unemployment that'll exist even when the economy's going strong.
但事实证明，即使在经济发展强劲的时候，也会出现失业类型。
Economists would point out that there's three types of unemployment,
经济学家指出有三种类型的失业，
or three reasons why people would be unemployed.
或者有三个原因导致人们失业。
First is frictional unemployment.
第一种是摩擦性失业。
This is when people are temporarily unemployed or between jobs.
这是人们暂时失业或待业的时候。
So if you quit your job and look for a new one,
所以如果你辞掉工作去找新的工作，
or if you're just entering the labor force, then you're frictionally unemployed.
或者你刚刚进入劳动力市场，那么你就处于摩擦性失业的状态。
The second is called structural unemployment.
第二种被称为结构性失业。
Workers are out of work because there's no demand for that specific type of labor.
工人们失业了，因为特定类型的劳动力没有了需求。
This would be like a VCR repair person,
比如录像机维修工，
but it also includes technological unemployment, where workers are replaced by machines.
但它也包括技术失业，工人被机器取代了。
Now both frictional and structural unemployment will always exist;
现在，摩擦和结构性失业都将永远存在。
the goal is not to have 0% unemployment. I mean, 0% is not even possible.
我们的目标不要有0%的失业率，我的意思是，0%是不可能的。
We're always going to have people between jobs or people fired because machines do it better.
总有人待业或因为机器做得更好而被炒。
So the goal is to have no cyclical unemployment.
所以我们的目标是没有周期性失业。
This is unemployment due to a recession.
这种失业是由经济衰退引起的。
It's when people stop buying stuff, so businesses lay off their workers
人们停止买东西的时候，企业就会解雇他们的员工，
and since workers have lower incomes, they stop buying stuff which means more people lose their jobs.
而且因为工人收入较低，他们就会停止买东西，这意味着更多的人失去工作，这就是周期性失业。
An economy is considered to be at full employment when there's only frictional and structural unemployment.
在只有摩擦和结构性失业的情况下，经济被认为是充分就业。
This is called the natural rate of unemployment.
这就是所谓的自然失业率。
This natural rate differs slightly between countries,
各国间的自然失业率有细微区别，
in the United States it's usually between 4 to 6 percent unemployment.
在美国，失业率通常在4%到6%之间。
Now as you might expect the GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate are inversely related.
现在，你可能认为GDP增长率和失业率是反向相关的。
That means that when GDP is rising, the unemployment rate is falling,
这意味着GDP上升时，失业率在下降。
when GDP is falling, the unemployment rate is rising.
GDP下降时，失业率在上升。
And that's exactly what happened in the United States during the Great Depression.
这正是大萧条时期美国的情况。
in the 1930's, droughts, bank failures, and counterproductive policies caused GDP to fall,
20世纪30年代，干旱、银行倒闭和适得其反的政策导致GDP下降，
and unemployment peaked at 25 percent.
失业率最高达到了25%。
Let's move on to the third economic goal: stable prices.
让我们进入第三个经济目标：稳定物价。
While I might like the idea of the stuff I buy getting cheaper across the board, falling prices are not really a good thing.
虽然我可能喜欢我买的东西全都变便宜的想法，但价格下跌不是好事。
Average prices in Greece have fallen about two percent recently,
希腊的平均物价最近下跌了大约2%，
and during the 1930's, the inflation rate in the US was negative ten percent,
在20世纪30年代，美国的通货膨胀率为-10%，
but how can cheaper stuff be bad for the economy?
但物价下跌如何会对经济不利呢？
Well, the goal is to keep prices stable, mainly to avoid rapid inflation, or rising prices
我们的目标是保持物价稳定，主要是为了避免快速的通货膨胀或物价上涨，
but we also want to avoid excessive deflation which is falling prices.
但我们也希望避免过度的通货紧缩，即物价下跌。
Inflation is measured by tracking the prices of a set amount of commonly purchased items,
通货膨胀是通过追踪一定数量的常购物品
or what economists call a market basket.
也就是经济学家所称的市场篮子的价格来衡量的，
The inflation rate is the percent change in the price of that basket over time.
通货膨胀率是这个篮子的价格随时间变化的百分比。
Too much inflation is bad because it decreases the purchasing power of money;
通货膨胀太高不好，因为它降低了货币的购买力。
it means you can buy less stuff with the same amount of money,
这意味着你用同样多的钱买到更少的东西，
which has all sorts of negative effects on the economy.
对经济有各种负面影响。
Business costs increase as workers demand higher wages and interest rates increase,
由于工人要求提高工资，企业成本增加，利率上升，
so it's harder to buy loans, so people buy less cars and houses.
因此购买贷款变难，人们买的汽车和房屋也减少了。
Deflation on the other hand, seems like it would be a good thing
另一方面，通货紧缩看起来是件好事，
but most economists see falling prices as a bad thing.
但大多数经济学家认为价格下跌是件坏事。
Falling prices actually discourage people from spending since they might expect prices to fall more in the future.
价格下降实际上阻碍了人们的消费，因为他们可能会期望未来价格下跌更多。
Less spending in the economy means GDP is gonna decrease and unemployment's gonna increase,
减少支出意味着GDP下降，失业率会上升，
and that just becomes a vicious cycle.
这就变成了一个恶性循环。
So severe recessions are often accompanied by deflation
因此，严重的衰退往往伴随着通缩，
because the demand for goods and services falls,
这是因为对商品和服务的需求下降了，
but when the economy starts to improve again, we often see an increase in prices.
但当经济再次开始好转时，我们往往会看到物价上涨。
Throughout history, economies have expanded and contracted. It's called the business cycle.
纵观历史，各经济体都在扩张和收缩。这叫做经济周期。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
我们去看“Thought Bubble”。
If we imagine the economy as a car, then GDP, employment and inflation are the gauges.
如果我们把经济想象成一辆汽车，那么GDP、就业和通胀就是衡量标准。
A car can cruise along at 65 miles per hour without overheating.
汽车可能以每小时65英里的速度行驶，不会过热。
Safe cruising speed is like full employment;
安全的行驶速度就像充分就业；
unemployment is low, prices are stable and people are happy.
失业率低、物价稳定，人民就会幸福。
But if we drive that car too fast for too long, it'll overheat,
但是如果我们把车开得太快太久，它就会过热。
and in the economy, significant spending increases GDP causing an expansion.
而在经济中，大量支出增加了GDP的增长。
Unemployment falls and factories start producing at full capacity to keep up with demand.
失业率下降，工厂开始全力生产以满足需求。
Since the amount of products that can be produced is limited,
因为可以生产的产品数量有限，
people start to outbid each other, resulting in inflation.
人们开始相互抬价，导致通货膨胀，
Eventually, production costs increase as workers demand higher wages and the economy starts to slow down.
最终，由于工人们要求提高工资，生产成本增加，经济开始放缓。
Businesses lay off a few workers,
企业解雇了一些工人，
those unemployed workers spend less
这些失业工人更少消费，
causing the businesses that produce the good that they would otherwise be buying to lay off more workers.
从而导致生产商解雇而不是雇佣更多工人。
This is a contraction, the economy is going to slow.
这就是通缩，经济将会放缓。
Eventually things stabilize, production costs fall since resources are sitting idle,
最终，因为资源闲置，生产成本下降，物价稳定了下来，
and the economy starts to expand again.
经济开始再次扩张。
This process of booms and busts is called the business cycle.
这种繁荣、萧条的过程被称为经济周期。
To understand why these fluctuations might occur,
要理解这些波动为什么出现，
let's take this car analogy just a little further and look at the engine.
我们再用汽车做类比，延伸一点儿，看看发动机。
Much like the four cylinder engine that powers the Volkswagen of growth,
就像驱动大众汽车的四缸发动机一样，
an economy has four components that make up GDP.
一个经济体的GDP有四个组成要素。
Each represents a different group that can purchase things in the economy.
每个要素代表一个不同的群体，它们可以在经济中购买东西。
They're consumer spending, business spending which is called investment, government spending,
它们是消费者支出、被称为投资的企业支出、政府支出、
and net exports which is basically spending by other countries.
以及基本是由他国支出的净出口。
If any one of these components loses power,
如果其中任何一个要素失去动力，
the economy will slow down, but not all of them are created equal.
经济都将放缓，但并非所有要素都是平等的。
Most economies rely heavily on consumer spending.
大多数经济体严重依赖消费支出。
For example, in the US, consumers account for about 70% of GDP,
例如，在美国，消费者约占GDP的70%。
but other countries might rely more heavily on exports.
但其他国家可能更依赖出口。
The point is, changes in these four components change the speed of the economy.
关键是，这四个要素的变化改变了经济速度。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
So when I'm driving my car on the highway, I use cruise control to regulate my speed.
所以当我在高速公路上开车时，会用巡航定速来调节速度。
So why don't we have cruise control for the economy?
那么为什么我们不能控制经济呢？
Well many economists think that the government should play a role in speeding up or slowing down the economy.
许多经济学家认为，政府应该在加速或减缓经济增长方面发挥作用。
For example, when there's a recession,
例如，当经济衰退时，
the government can increase spending or cut taxes so consumers have more money to spend.
政府可以增加支出或减税，让消费者有更多的钱可以消费。
Proponents of this policy argue that it would get the economy back to full employment, but it has its drawback:
支持这项政策的人认为，它将使经济恢复到充分就业状态，但它也有自己的缺点：
debt, which some economists hate while others argue isn't very much of a drawback at all.
负债，一些经济学家讨厌它，但其他人认为负债并不是很大的缺陷。
Stupid economic policy, always resisting simplistic explanations.
愚蠢的经济政策总是抵制简化的解释。
We're gonna save the debate over how to fix the economy for future videos,
我们将把如何解决经济问题的辩论留到以后的视频中，
but for now it's important for you to have a general understanding of how the economy works and how it's measured.
现在对你来说，重要的是大致了解经济如何运作以及如何衡量。
After all, whether you're driving a Namco in Greece, a Kia in Korea or a Ford in the US,
毕竟，不管你是在希腊开拿姆科，在韩国开起亚，还是在美国开福特。
your livelihood and your future will be shaped by what happens in the economy.
你的生计和未来将取决于经济状况。
So wear your seat belt. By which I mean try to save a little once in a while, OK?
所以系好安全带。我的意思是，试着偶尔存点儿钱，好吗。
So we've really just touched on these three major indicators of economic health,
我们刚刚谈到了健康经济的三个主要指标，
and while they can be useful in providing a broad overview of a nation's economy,
虽然它们在提供一个国家的经济概况方面很有用，
reality is, as usual, a little more nuanced than that.
但现实和往常一样，比它更微妙一些。
Next week, we're gonna go under the hood and look at the greasy,
下个星期，我们要到引擎盖下面去看看那些油腻的东西，
dirty details of how economists calculate growth, and tune up thee economy,
经济学家如何计算增长的肮脏细节，调整经济，
and rev up their economic engines and drive around the drag racing tr—
加快经济引擎，以直线加速赛的速度开车...
OK, I think that's enough with the cars.
好了，我想这就够了。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It was made with the help of all of these nice people.
它是由一群好心人自创的。
Now, if you want to help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever,
如果你想让速成班继续免费为大家服务，
please consider subscribing over at Patreon.
请到Patreon去订购。
It's a voluntary subscription platform
它是自愿订阅平台，
that allows you to pay whatever you want per month to make Crash Course exist, and it also increases GDP.
这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西，并且帮助速成课程继续存在，这也会增加GDP。
Thanks for watching, DFTBA.
感谢您的收看。别忘了做个了不起的人。
