In 1962 at Rice University, JFK told the country about a dream he had, a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade. The eponymous moonshot.

1962年在莱斯大学 肯尼迪向国民宣布了他的梦想即十年之内能有一个人登上月球 即有名的登月计划。
No one knew if it was possible to do but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.
没有人知道这件事有多大可能但是只要有可能他就会全面地计划来落实这件事
That's how great dreams are.
这才是伟大的梦想。
Great dreams aren't just visions, they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.
伟大的梦想不仅仅是想象 它们还有使想象成真的策略
I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory.
我非常有幸可以在这个疯狂工厂工作。
At X -- formerly called Google X you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer
在（X），也就是常说的（谷歌X）工作的时候，你可以看到航空工程师
and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts.
可以看到前实战军事指挥官和激光专家一起头脑风暴。

These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.
这些发明家，工程师和工匠在一起设计可以让世界更好的科学技术。
We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big to keep dreaming.
我们用“疯狂计划”这个词来提醒我们仰望星空去坚持梦想。
And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves that we want to have concrete visions concrete plans to make them real.
我们用“工厂”这个词提醒我们脚踏实地，用具体的方案把梦想付诸于现实。
Here's our moonshot blueprint.
这是我们疯狂计划的蓝图。
Number one: we want to find a huge problem in the world that affects many millions of people.
首先，我们要找到那些困扰亿万人的世界性难题。
Number two: we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem.
其次，我们想找到一个彻底解决那个问题的方案。
And then number three: there has to be some reason to believe that the technology for such a radical solution could actually be built.
最后，必须要有理由相信这个可以用于完美解决问题的方法在技术上是可行的。
But I have a secret for you. The moonshot factory is a messy place.
我有一个秘密。疯狂工厂是个混乱的地方，
But rather than avoid the mess, pretend it's not there, we've tried to make that our strength.
我们不仅没有避免混乱，没有假装混乱不存在，反而我们希望混乱成为我们的优势
We spend most of our time breaking things and trying to prove that we're wrong.
我们的大多数时间都用来搞坏各种东西并试图证明我们是错的。
That's it, that's the secret.
就是这样，这就是秘密。
Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first.
从问题最难的部分着手。
Get excited and cheer, "Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"
激动地大喊：“嘿！我们今天要扼杀我们的项目么？”
We've got this interesting balance going where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions.
我们一直保持着这种有趣的平衡，一方面我们用我们的无尽的乐观化作幻想的动力，
But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.
另一方面我们通过不停地质疑回到现实，把现实注幻想之中。
I want to show you a few of the projects that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor,
我将会给各位展示一些中途搁浅的项目，
and also a few of the gems that at least so far, have not only survived that process, but have been accelerated by it.
和一些到目前为止不仅依然存在，还更加生机勃勃的项目。
Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming.
去年我们扼杀了一个叫做自动垂直种植的项目。
This is some of the lettuce that we grew.
这是一些我们种植的莴苣
One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment.
世界上九分之一的人经受着营养不良的煎熬
So this is a moonshot that needs to happen.
所以这是个需要实现的疯狂计划
Vertical farming uses 10 times less water and a hundred times less land than conventional farming.
相比传统农业，垂直种植只用十分之一的水和百分之一的土地。
And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed, you don't have to transport it large distances.
并且因为你能利用自动垂直种植技术在离需求近的地方种植食物 所以你能减少远距离运输
We made progress in a lot of the areas like automated harvesting and efficient lighting.
我们在自动收获和高效照明等很多领域求取得了不错的进展
But unfortunately, we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way.
但是不幸的是 我们不能以这种方式种植谷物这样的主食
So we killed the project. Here's another huge problem.
所以我们终止了这个项目 还有一个重大的问题。
We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage to ship goods worldwide.
我们为了能用轮船在全球范围内运输货物 我们不但消耗了很多资源而且对环境也造成了很多损害
Economic development of landlocked countries is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure.
内陆地区的经济发展严重受到货运基础设施缺乏的限制。
The radical solution? A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
完美的解决方案？一个比空气轻的可变浮力货船。
This has the potential to lower, at least overall, the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping without needing runways.
这项计划有潜力全面的减少运输所需要的时间金钱和碳足迹，而且不需要专门的航路。
We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough
我们实现了一系列科技突破让我们减少了足够多的预算以至于
that we could actually make these ships inexpensively enough in volume.
我们可以实际上造出这些船。至少单位空间上不是很贵。
But however cheap they would have been to make in volume
但是无论单位空间多么便宜，
it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars to design and build the first one.
我们发现想要设计并制造第一艘船需要2亿美元。
Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops of making mistakes and learning and new designs,
因为X公司具有紧张的遇到问题 学习 新设计反馈循环，
we can't spend 200 million dollars to get the first data point about whether we're on the right track or not.
我们不能为了验证我们的想法就在项目的第一个数据点上花费2亿美元。
If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects, we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road.
如果我们的计划有漏洞，我们希望马上知道而不是最后才知晓。
So we killed this project, too.
所以我们也扼杀了这个项目。
Discovering a major flaw in a project doesn't always mean that it ends the project.
发现了项目中的重大缺陷不一定总是意味着项目的终结。
Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.
有的时候它反而提供了一种更有成效的方法。
This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype, which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal.
这是我们全自动驾驶工具的原型，它没有方向盘和刹车。
But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.
但这却不是一开始我们想要的。
With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year, building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take.

120万人每年死于交通事故，制造一辆自动驾驶的车自然是一个疯狂的计划。
Three and a half years ago, when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
三年半之前，当我们使用凌志的自动驾驶翻新车进行实验时
they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers to find out what they thought of the experience.
实验状况很好，所以我们拿给其他谷歌成员试驾。让他们评价一下这种体验。
And what we discovered was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving
我们发现让汽车进行大部分驾驶工作
and just hand over to the users in case of emergency was a really bad plan.
在紧急情况下交给司机进行驾驶是一个非常糟糕的计划。
It wasn't safe because the users didn't do their job.
它不安全因为司机来不及开车。
They didn't stay alert in case the car needed to hand control back to them.
他们没有时刻保持警惕以防车把控制权交还给他们。
This was a major crisis for the team.
项目组遭受了巨大的危及，
It sent them back to the drawing board.
一夜回到解放前。
And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective.
随后他们从新的角度想到了一个完美的方案。
Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger.
在新的方案中你只是一个乘客，
You tell the car where you want to go, you push a button and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.
你告诉车你要去哪里，按一下按钮，车会自动的从A带你去B。
We're really grateful that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did.
我们很庆幸在项目的一开始我们就想到了这一步。
And it's shaped everything we've done since then.
从那以后我们所做的所有都围绕着新的计划。
And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles,
现在我们的车已经自动驾驶超过140万英里
and they're out everyday on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.
它们每天都在加州的山景城和德州的奥斯丁的街道上跑。
The cars team shifted their perspective. This is one of X's mantras.
自动驾驶车团队改变了他们看问题的角度。这是X公司的真谛之一。
Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart. Take wind energy.
有的时候换个角度比变聪明更加强大。再说说风能利用。
It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting.
这是我最喜欢的转变思路的例子。
There's no way that we're going to build a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry.
我们没有办法比工业领域的专家制造更好的风力涡轮机。
But we found a way to get up higher into the sky, and so get access to faster, more consistent winds,
但是我们找到了一个能够让我们到达更高处的方法 那里有持续而且更快的风速
and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
所以那里有更高的风能 这样我们就不需要用上百多吨重的钢铁来抵达那里
Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch by spinning up those propellers along its wing.
我们的马堪尼能量风筝从基站升起 它的翅膀上有很多旋转的螺旋桨。
And it pulls out a tether as it rises, pulling energy up through the tether.
它飞起来的时候会拉出一根用来传递能量的绳子。
Once the tether's all the way out, it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.
当这根绳子拉直的时候，风筝就进入了侧风圈中。
And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines.
这时那些飞机上的螺旋桨就变成了空中的涡轮机。
And that sends energy back down the tether.
用绳子把能量传递下来。
We haven't yet found a way to kill this project.
到目前我们还没发现扼杀这个项目的办法。
And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form of wind energy for the world.
它在这种压力下活得越久我们越因为可能为世界找到了一种更便宜的，
Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon.
也许我们最疯狂最有名的项目就是气球项目了。
We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet.
我们在尝试用热气球提供互联网。
A network of balloons in the stratosphere that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world.
平流层的热气球网络可以让农村和偏远地区全部连接互联网。
This could bring online as many as four billion more people, who today have little or no internet connection.
这可以让超过40亿到今天还没有网络或网络不畅的人用上网络。
But you can't just take a cell tower, strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky.
但是你不能造一个基站，绑在气球上固定在天上。
The winds are too strong, it would be blown away.
风太大了，气球会被吹走。
And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.
气球又离地太远了不能固定在地上。
Here comes the crazy moment.
我们有了一个疯狂的想法。
What if, instead, we let the balloons drift and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go?
我们何不任由这些气球飘流但是告诉它们如何飘流并让他们飘到指定地点呢？
It turns out the stratosphere has winds that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata.
事实上平流层的风在不同层有不同的速度和方向。
So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world,
所以我们希望用巧妙的算法和世界风向数据
we could maneuver the balloons a bit, getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
来轻微地操纵气球，让他们可以在平流层上升或下降一点点
to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds.
以借助不同速度和方向的风。
The idea is to have enough balloons so as one balloon floats out of your area,
这个想法基于足够多的气球这样的话当一个气球飞出了你的区域，
there's another balloon ready to float into place,
另一个气球恰好进入，
handing off the internet connection, just like your phone hands off between cell towers as you drive down the freeway.
交接网络连接，就像你在高速公路上开车时电话信号在不同基站交接一样。
We get how crazy that vision sounds there's the name of the project to remind us of that.
项目的名字一直提醒着我们我们的想法是多么的不可思议。
So since 2012, the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult and so the most likely to kill their project.
从2012年开始，气球团队开始解决项目中最难的最有希望扼杀项目的问题。
The first thing that they did was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere down to an antenna on the ground. It worked.
首先他们要做的，是让平流层中的气球与地上的接收器建立Wi-Fi连接。他们成功了。
And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to. So we kept going.
相信我很多人打赌这会失败。所以我们继续研究。
Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets, so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver? Yeah.
我们可以让气球直接和手机建立联系从而省去中间的接收装置吗？可以做到。
Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough so it was a real Internet connection?
可以增加气球的Wi-Fi带宽到正常网络连接的程度么？
So that people could have something more than just SMS?
可以让人们用气球网络做更多的事情么？
The early tests weren't even a megabit per second, but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second.
一开始的测试速度还不到1M/s 现在速度已经达到了15M/s。
Enough to watch a TED Talk.
足够看TED的演讲了。
Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas? Check.
我们能否让天空中的气球之间相互传递信号 这样我们就能将我们的信号传递到更加偏远的乡村地区 是的我们可以做到
Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days,
做一个像房子那么大的气球并让它在天空上面呆超过100天么？
while costing less than five percent of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make? Yes. In the end.
并且少于一个传统的气球花销的百分之五 是的，最终我们可以。
But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there.
我保证，只要你能想到的我们都会尽力做到
We made round, silvery balloons.
我们制造了圆的银白气球
We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.
我们制造了超大枕头气球
We made balloons the size of a blue whale.
我们制造了蓝鲸那么大的气球
We busted a lot of balloons.
我们捅破了很多气球
Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky,
因为这个项目会不会被扼杀很大程度上取决于一个重要的技术，
one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
其中一个重要的实验就是把气球放在气球中，
So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium.
这样大气球中就有两种区域，一种里面是空气一种里面是氦气。
The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier, or lets air out to make it lighter.
通过打气可以让气球变重，通过放气让它变轻。
And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall,
通过改变重量控制升降，
and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism.
这就是它的转向装置。
It floats up or down, hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.
通过上升和下降气球可以借助风力去它想去的地方。
But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world?
但是这个气球已经足够好到可以周游世界了么？
Barely at first, but better all the time.
一开始不可以，但是后面越来越好
This particular balloon, our latest balloon, can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky
这是我们最新的气球他可以通过在空中多达2英里的垂直运动
and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go from 20,000 kilometers away.
从20000公里外的地方飘到距离目的地误差小于500米的地方。
We have lots more to do in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs.
我们还有更多要做的事，包括系统的微调和减少开销。
But last year, a balloon built inexpensively went around the world 19 times over 187 days.
去年一个造价不贵的气球用187天周游了全世界19次。
So we're going to keep going.
我们将继续努力。
Our balloons today are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do.
现在我们的气球可以满足一个复杂系统的所有需求。
We're in discussions with telcos around the world, and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia for real service testing this year.
我们在和世界各地的通信公司联系，而且我们今年将在印度尼西亚的上空进行实地的测试。
This probably all sounds too good to be true, and you're right.
这些如果成真了就太美妙了。
Being audacious and working on big, risky things makes people inherently uncomfortable.
无畏地从事重大的，有风险的工作让很多人从心里感到不适。
You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast.
你不能简单地逼迫他们尽快失败。
People resist. They worry. "What will happen to me if I fail?
他们会抗拒，会担心。“如果我失败了会发生什么？”
Will people laugh at me? Will I be fired?"
人们会嘲笑我么 我会被开除么
I started with our secret. I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen.
演讲的开始我分享了我的秘密。现在我将告诉各位这是怎么做到的。
The only way to get people to work on big, risky things audacious ideas
让人们敢于挑战那些重大的有挑战性的工作的唯一办法，
and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first, is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.
让他们直面问题中最难的那部分的的唯一办法，就是
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.
在X公司我们努力让失败看起来很正常。
Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table because they're rewarded for it.
当团队发现了明显的问题就扼杀他们的想法因为他们会因此得到奖励。
They get applause from their peers.
会得到同事的掌声。
Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular. They get promoted for it.
会得到主管，尤其是我的拥抱和击掌。他们因此而被提拔。
We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects, from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.
我们对终结一个计划的团队的每个人都会进行嘉奖，无论团队里是2个人
We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory.
在疯狂工厂，我们相信梦想。
But enthusiastic skepticism is not the enemy of boundless optimism.
但是积极地质疑并不是无限乐观的敌人，
It's optimism's perfect partner.
反而是它的最佳搭档。
It unlocks the potential in every idea.
正是质疑让很多想法得以实现。
We can create the future that's in our dreams. Thank you very much.
我们终将创造我们梦中的未来。非常感谢。