So I guess the thing you have to think about in any given poker situation is that
我猜你在打扑克牌的时候肯定会思考的一件事情是
you're dealing with a lot of uncertainty, and it's all about how to make the best decision in any given moment.
自己需要处理很多不确定性 打扑克牌就是任何时候都要做出最好的抉择
So the first rule of thumb is how to extract the most money or chips from your opponent when you have a strong hand,
所以第一条经验法则就是当你手气好的时候怎样从你对手那里赢得更多的钱
and how to lose the minimum when you have a weak hand.
还有当你手气差时怎样将损失降到最小
You're never going to be a hundred percent certain where you are:
你不能百分百确定你的牌到底好不好
You beating them or are you do you have a worse hand?
你能赢吗？或者说你的手气是不是很差？
So you have to sort of construct a strategy that is mathematically optimal in each situation.
所以你不得不想出一个在各种情况下都精确适用的策略

I guess people tend to think of intuition as their gut, their gut instinct
我想人们往往会认为他们的直觉是一种本能
and my rule of thumb in poker is to only fall on my gut instinct
我的扑克定律是我只相信我的本能
if my sort of logical, my slow brain, the system two as it's sometimes called, has not come to any conclusive answer.
当我的逻辑思维没有得出任何结论性的答案时
A lot of people are tempted to go, “This is too tricky, I don't know!”
很多人通常会想 “好纠结啊 不知道该怎么办！”
and then go, “Yeah, well, my gut instinct says this; I'm going to go with that.”
然后就想 “好吧 我的直觉这样告诉我 那我就要这样做了”
But the best thing to do is to work with both, your sort of slow brain and that gut.
但是最好的方法是将两者结合 你的逻辑思维还有你的直觉
Say you were playing against your opponent and you've noticed that actually they’re someone who's very solid,
比如你正在打牌 你也知道你的对手实际上很友好
they never seem to bluff, and you might have a hand that you
似乎从不会故意虚张声势 而且
would normally call with (say 90 percent of the time),
你可以正常地摊牌（比如说90%的情况下）
but you know this guy, he's just never bluffing, never doing it.
你知道他从不虚张声势
Well, actually this might be one of those rare situations where you do throw your hand in the muck,
好吧 实际上这就是你失手的一种不常见的情形在手法低劣时
where you have a very strong feeling that you're just not calling;
你有很强的感觉你不应该摊牌
even though mathematically it says it should call, you shouldn't do it.
尽管逻辑上来说你应该摊牌 你没有这么做
I guess the art part of poker is when you have these flashes of inspiration where you need to deviate from the math,
我想扑克的艺术就是 当你有一瞬间的灵感不得不偏离数学和技术
and the science is knowing whether that deviation is the right thing to do at the time.
科学的作用就在于 推出这种偏离是否正确
When it comes to your intuition as a poker player
作为一个扑克牌玩家 当谈及到直觉的时候
I would say do use it from time to time, but it should not be your starting point.
我会说偶尔可以相信你的直觉 但是它不应该作为你的准则
You, as a rule of thumb, should always go for the slow “system two” analysis,
一般来说 你应该按照逻辑思维来分析
see what answer that comes up with, and then also to check in with your gut.
看看能想出什么答案 再检查下你的直觉
Say you're in a really big hand, and your opponent has bet, often I'll have an instinctive response;
打个比方说你现在手气很好 你也已经和对手下了赌注 这时你通常会做出本能的一个反应
I'll be like, “Oh that's a bluff,” or “they have a really strong hand,” and
就像“那是吓唬人的”或者“他们手气真的很好”
I'll make a note of it, I won't just go with that answer.
我会记住这些想法 但是不会顺着它们做
I'll go, “Okay now let's work through the mathematics, let's look sort of through all
“我们用数学方法来试一下 看一下其他的信息：
the other bits of information: what have they done on other cards?” and so on,
他们在其他扑克牌上做了什么 ？” 等等
and then see if those two answers match up.”
然后看看这两个结果是否匹配
Now, if they both match up, great, I've got an easy decision,
如果相匹配的话 很好 我们能很容易地得出结论
but if one is giving a conflicting answer to the other,
但是如果它们相冲突的话
then usually you tend to rely on the sort of the mathematic/logic part.
通常情况下你往往会相信用数学或者逻辑方法得出来的答案
However, it's really, really close with the mathematics,
但是 如果直觉跟数学得出来的结果很相似的话
then I'll fall back on that gut instinct.
我会转而去相信直觉
But as a rule of thumb your gut is not as reliable as you think.
但是一般而言 你的直觉并不会像你想的那么可靠
You often see these like memes on the Internet, which is just like, “Always go with your gut!
你会在网上经常见到这样的句子 比如 “遵从你的内心
Trust your instincts!” and so on.
相信你的直觉！”等等
And I personally think that's a copout.
但是我认为那是种逃避
I think that's often the lazy way out for when we are faced with a really tough decision
我认为那是在我们面对一个两难的决定时一种很慵懒的对待态度
in life, of just going, “well… answer X.”
在生活中 好像“好吧 答案是X”
Our brains they love to simplify things, to do things in black-and-white,
我们大脑总是趋向于喜欢解决那些很简单明了的问题
but we live in a very complex world, and that's not always the best route to take.
但是我们生活在一个复杂的世界中 那不是最好的出路
So in a nutshell, your gut instincts can be useful, but as a last resort.
简单来说 你的直觉可能会很有用 但是它应该在没有别的办法的时候才能使用
We've evolved of these amazing brains for a reason, so we should be using them.
我们进化成聪明的大脑是有原因的 我们必须充分利用起来