双语畅销书《艾伦图灵传》第5章:解谜接力赛(83)
日期:2018-06-06 18:07

(单词翻译:单击)

The conclusion drawn would always depend upon the α priori likeliness which the experimenter had had in mind at the beginning.
得到的结论,总是取决于实验者一开始的先验假设。
To give a concrete feel to the theory, Alan liked to think in terms of a perfectly rational person obliged to make bets upon hypotheses.
为了给出这个理论形象化认识,艾伦喜欢想象一个极理智的人基于假设来打赌。
He liked the idea of betting, and put the theory into the form of odds.
他喜欢打赌这个想法,并在其中引入概率。
So in the example, the effect of the experiment would be to double the odds, one way or the other.
在前面的例子中,实验的结果会这样或那样地使概率增加一倍。
If further experiments were allowed, the odds would eventually increase to very large numbers although in principle, certainty would never be attained.
如果做更进一步的实验,概率最终会增加到非常大的程度,虽然理论上说永远无法达到100%。
Alternatively, the process could be thought of as one of accumulating more and more evidence.
或者说,这个过程可以看成是在积累越来越多的证据。
From this point of view, it would be more natural to think of adding something each time an experiment was made, rather than of multiplying the current odds.
从这点来看,更自然的想法是,给概率加上了一些东西,而不是乘以。
This could be achieved by using logarithms.
通过引入对数,就可以形式化这个想法。
The American philosopher C.S. Peirce had described a related idea in 1878, giving it the name 'weight of evidence'.
美国哲学家C.S.皮斯在1878年提出了一个相关的想法,称为证据权重。

分享到