2. Stability or fragility
2、稳定或脆弱
What about the second big choice—between stability and fragility? Just as there are present and future threats to growth, there are similar threats to financial stability.
第二个重大选择是稳定与脆弱之间的选择。经济增长面临当前和未来因素的威胁，金融稳定也面临类似的威胁。
While the real economy might suffer from too little investment, the financial sector might be flying too close to the sun. Putting it another way, there is too little economic risk taking, and too much financial risk taking.
一方面投资太少可能影响实体经济发展，另一方面金融部门可能承担过高风险。换句话说，经济风险承担不足，而金融风险承担过度。
Again, monetary policy needs to stay accommodative, to get the growth we need. Yet one side effect is the danger, once again, of a rush toward reckless risk taking.
此外，为了实现必要增长，必须继续实行宽松的货币政策，但会产生副作用，即不计后果地承担风险所带来的危害。
While there are a number of warning signs, the risks are particularly acute in the nonbank sector. One example: mutual funds now account for 27 percent of global high-yield debt, twice as much as in 2007. At the same time, risks are more concentrated—the top ten global asset management firms now control a whopping $19 trillion. This is larger than the world’s largest economy—the United States.
尽管有不少预警信号，非银行部门的风险尤其严重。比如，目前共同基金占全球高收益债务的27%，是2007年的两倍。同时，风险越来越集中，全球前十大资产管理公司现在控制了19万亿的庞大资产，规模比全球最大经济体美国还大。
History teaches us a clear lesson—the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. A sudden shift in sentiment could easily cascade across the entire globe.
历史清楚地告诉我们——繁荣时越是兴旺，萧条时的破坏就愈严重。情绪的突然转变很容易延伸到全球。
This feeds into the longer-term issue that affects financial stability—the increasing interconnectedness of the world economy. As you know, financial flows can zap and zoom across the world at lightning speed.
这就造成了影响金融稳定的长期问题——世界经济日益增强的互联性。我们都知道，资金能迅速地在全球流动。
The degree of financial integration has jumped tenfold since the IMF was founded. In the two decades before the crisis, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent.
自基金组织成立以来，金融一体化程度已提高到从前的十倍。危机爆发前的二十年里，国际银行贷款占世界GDP的比重上升了250%。
This interconnectedness offers great benefits—allowing more people to access global financial networks. But it also comes with a dark side: it makes financial crises more likely to occur, and more virulent when they do occur. 2008 was a stark reminder of this.
互联性带来了巨大的惠益，使更多人能进入全球金融网络。但同时也有不好的一面：金融危机发生的可能性增大，爆发时影响更恶劣。2008年就说明了这一点。
Ultimately, we need to be able to garner the good and banish the bad. We need to be proactive, not passive.
归根结底，我们要有能力趋利避害，要积极主动，而不是消极被动。
As Tagore once said, “You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water”.
正如泰戈尔所言，“你无法只站在那里看海就能渡海”。
That means we need the right tools and policies. If financial markets are more challenging, then policies must be more powerful, and regulators and supervisors must be better equipped. The bottom line? We must complete the financial sector reform agenda, and we must continue to update it as financial minds are creative and fertile in seeking out new loopholes.
这说明我们需要恰当的工具和政策。如果金融市场面临更多挑战，那就必须采取更有力的政策和更完备的监管。最终，我们必须完成金融部门改革议程，必须不断更新，因为丰富且有创意的金融观念总能找出新的漏洞。
We have made good progress, especially on banking regulation. Yet we still need to overcome the too-important-to-fail problem. We need better rules for nonbanks, better monitoring of shadow banks, and better safety and transparency over derivatives. We need to strengthen macroprudential safeguards.
我们取得了长足的进展，特别是在银行监管领域。但我们仍需克服银行太大以至于不能倒闭的问题。我们要进一步制定非银行监管规则，更好地监测影子银行，提高衍生品的安全性和透明度。我们还要加强宏观审慎保障。
And let’s be candid: we need to see a change in culture and behavior. We need to move away from the myopic mentality that led to the crisis—the tendency to prize profit over prudence, self-interest over service, excess over ethics.
坦率地讲，我们要在文化和行为方面有所改变。我们要抛弃造成危机的浅薄思想，这种倾向导致利益凌驾于审慎之上，个人利益高于服务意识，贪婪战胜道德。
The IMF has a key role to play in coping with this new world of interconnections.
基金组织在应对这种新的世界互联性中发挥重要作用。
A world of large capital flows means that we need a large global safety net. Regional arrangements—including the new BRICs contingency reserve arrangement—certainly have an important role to play. But the IMF, as the only truly global institution focused on financial stability, must have adequate instruments and resources.
大量资金流意味着我们要有大规模的全球安全网。区域性安排（包括新的金砖国家应急储备安排）无疑扮演着重要角色。但基金组织作为唯一一个重点关注金融稳定的真正全球性机构，必须掌握充分的工具和资源。
It is a lesson that has been learned many times over the past 70 years: a strong global economy requires a strong IMF.
过去70年的经历已经多次告诉我们：强大的全球经济需要有力的基金组织。
3. Solidarity or seclusion
3、团结或闭塞
Let me now turn to the third and final big choice facing us—solidarity versus seclusion. Do we lift high the banner of cooperation or do we sink low into the mud of provincialism?
现在我谈谈我们要做的第三个也是最后一个重要选择——团结与闭塞。我们是否高举合作大旗？抑或是否深陷排外主义的泥潭？
You all know the answer. You know that the most fertile ground is common ground; the best form of self-help is mutual help; the best kind of knowledge is shared knowledge. This is why we are all here today.
答案不言自明。我们都知道，最肥沃的土地是共有的土地；帮助别人才能更好地帮助自己；最睿智的知识是懂得分享知识。这正是我们今天汇聚一堂的原因。
It is why you are members of the IMF!
这也是你们加入基金组织的原因！
Yet you also know that the global economy is undergoing radical shifts. Fifty years ago, the emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP. Today, it is half, and rising rapidly. During the global crisis, it was the emerging markets that contributed most to global growth.
但诸位也清楚，世界经济正在发生根本性改变。50年前新兴市场和发展中经济体约占世界GDP的四分之一，而今天这一比重已经达到一半，而且还在迅速上升。全球危机期间，正是新兴市场为全球增长做出了最大贡献。
This diffusion of power is not restricted to nation states. Aided by technology, we also see the rapid rise of a more diverse network of global stakeholders: NGOs, cities, and even citizen activists. Powered by social media, they have proven their ability to force policy change.
力量的传播不只局限于民族国家。在科技的推动下，更加多元化的全球利益攸关方网络迅速崛起：非政府组织、城市甚至公民活动家。他们通过社会媒体展示了自己迫使政策改变的能力。
This new reality demands a new response—but not a new philosophy. It requires us to update, adapt, and deepen our modes of global cooperation. It requires using the wonders of technology for the betterment of humanity. It requires what I have a called a “new multilateralism”.
新现象需要有新回应，但不是新理念。这需要我们更新、调整和深化全球合作模式，需要我们利用科技奇迹为人类谋福祉，需要促进我所说的“新多边主义”。
In the words of Maya Angelou: “to give birth again to the dream”.
正如玛雅·安吉罗所说，“要给予梦想以新生”。
What does this mean in practical terms? For a start, it means a re-commitment to the values of open trade and investment. It means resisting the lure of “beggar-thy-neighbor” economics. It means placing the global good above individual self-interest.
这句话有什么现实意义呢？首先，这意味着要重拾开放贸易和投资价值观，意味着要抵御以邻为壑经济理念的诱惑，还意味着全球利益高于一己私利。
There are three areas where progress is vital:
以下三个领域的进展至关重要：
First, in the financial sector: we need cooperation to come to an agreement on the cross-border resolution of megabanks.
首先是金融部门：我们要开展合作，就超大型银行的跨境处置问题达成一致。
Second, we know that tax competition especially hurts low-income countries as they strive to mobilize badly-needed revenue. The international community needs to go further in making it more difficult to shift taxes from one country to another simply for profit.
其次，我们明白税收竞争给低收入国家带来的危害更大，因为这些国家正努力获得亟需的收入。国际社会需进一步努力，阻止仅以获利为目的的国家间税收转移。
Third, on external imbalances: we know that behind every current account deficit lies a current account surplus. Countries on both sides must take responsibility for balance and stability.
最后是外部失衡。我们清楚，一个国家的经常账户出现逆差，就有相应的国家出现顺差。双方都有责任保持平衡和稳定。
Renewed solidarity also calls for global action to turn the tide of climate change. 2015 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year. If we miss this chance, then we are failing the world’s poorest people, the generations to come, and the planet.
重新实现团结还需要采取全球行动，扭转气候变化态势。2015年是成败攸关的一年。错过这个机会，意味着我们有负于世界最贫穷人口，有负于后辈子孙，也有负于整个世界。
So we must not fail. The new multilateralism must prevail. And the IMF has a pivotal role to play.
所以我们不能失败。推行新多边主义高于一切。而基金组织发挥着重要作用。
Every day—and often nights as well—our magnificent staff and Executive Board are working hard for you. They are a uniquely talented group of people—dedicated to the ideals of international public service, steadfast in their zeal to make the world a better place. I am immensely proud of them—and all of those who have served the Fund so well over these 70 years. I know you are proud too.
基金组织出色的工作人员和执行董事会夜以继日地辛勤工作。他们出类拔萃，致力于提供国际公共服务，始终保持着让世界更美好的激情。我由衷地为你们自豪，为过去70年来所有为基金组织做出卓越贡献的人而自豪。而且我知道，你们也一样为之自豪。
Here, let me pay special tribute to a dear member of our family, Wabel Abdallah. Wabel was our resident representative in Afghanistan, and he was brutally killed by a terrorist attack in Kabul earlier this year. He represented the Fund at its very best. Wabel devoted his life to helping the people of Afghanistan, and he died doing his duty. We miss him dearly. As they say in Arabic, “lel fakeed al rahma”—mercy to the departed.
在此，我要特别向我们大家庭里亲爱的一员Wabel Abdallah致以敬意。Wabel是基金组织在阿富汗的常驻代表，在今年前段时间喀布尔爆发的恐怖袭击中惨遭杀害。他展现了基金组织最好的一面。Wabel为帮助阿富汗人民献出了宝贵的生命，为履行自己的职责献出了生命。我们深深地缅怀他。正如阿拉伯语中所说的“lel fakeed al rahma”——愿逝者安息。
At the Fund, we have mourned Wabel’s loss together. But we are honoring him day by day through our continued commitment to global cooperation. This includes our work with higher-risk countries, where it is more important than ever to work toward sound institutions, so that people will one day face a better and more stable future.
在基金组织，我们一起悼念Wabel。但一如既往地推动全球合作更表达了我们平日对他的尊敬。这包括与高风险国家开展合作。在这些国家，努力建立稳定的制度，使人们最终能有更美好、更稳定的未来，具有前所未有的重要性。
We will continue to adapt to changing realities on the ground. And we must strive to be even more representative of our dynamic global membership.
我们将继续适应不断变化的现实情况。我们必须努力更好地体现全球成员国的动态发展。
That makes completing the 2010 governance reforms so crucial. Our membership knows what needs to be done.
有鉴于此，完成2010年治理改革至关重要。各成员国都知道需要做些什么。
The right choice must be made.
我们必须做出正确的选择。
Conclusion: Our Choices
结语：我们的选择
Mr. Chairman, Governors, let me conclude:
主席先生、各位理事，最后我想说：
At this key fork in the road, let us choose acceleration over stagnation, stability over fragility, solidarity over seclusion.
在这个关键的岔路口上，让我们选择加速而不是停滞，稳定而不是脆弱，团结而不是闭塞。
Let us choose the path of 1944, not 1914.
我们要选择的是1944年而不是1914年那样的道路。
I began with a popular children’s story, let me end with another. In J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter, the protagonist is given this key piece of advice: “It is our choices, Harry, that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities”.
我开头给大家讲了一个童话故事，最后再给大家讲个故事。J.K.罗琳所著的《哈里·波特》中，男主角得到了一条重要的建议：“这是我们的选择，哈里，它展示了我们的本色，而不仅仅是我们的能力”。
Our choices.
我们的选择。
Thank you.
谢谢。