Almost two years ago, I was driving in my car in Germany, and I turned on the radio.
大约两年前，我在德国开车的时候，打开了收音机
Europe at the time was in the middle of the Euro crisis,
当时的欧洲正处于欧债危机当中
and all the headlines were about European countries getting downgraded by rating agencies in the United States.
所有报纸上的头版头条都是欧洲国家被美国评级机构降级的消息
I listened and thought to myself,
我边听边想
"What are these rating agencies, and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
这些评级机构是做什么的，为什么大家都因为他们的工作感到沮丧
Well, if you were sitting next to me in the car that day
其实如果当时你坐在我车里的副驾上
and would have told me that I would devote the next years to trying to reform them,
你肯定会告诉我，我将在未来几年中致力于评级机构的改革
obviously I would have called you crazy.
当然 我会说那是疯狂的想法
But guess what's really crazy: the way these rating agencies are run.
但你猜真正疯狂的是什么：这些评级机构的运作模式
And I would like to explain to you
我今天要和你们探讨的不仅是
not only why it's time to change this, but also how we can do it.
为什么我们要在现在进行改革，还要讨论怎样进行改革
So let me tell you a little bit about what rating agencies really do.
先来说说评级机构到底都做什么
As you would read a car magazine before purchasing a new car or taking a look at a product review
你一般会先看看汽车杂志 再去买新车 或者是先浏览产品评价
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
再决定到底买哪种平板电脑或手机
investors are reading ratings before they decide in which kind of product they are investing their money.
投资者们则是先看评级，再决定把钱投向哪种产品
A rating can range from a so-called AAA, which means it's a top-performing product,
评级范围包括从最顶尖的AAA
and it can go down to the level of the so-called BBB-, which means it's a fairly risky investment.
到最差的垫底级别，也就是BBB-，也就是说这是一项非常冒险的投资
Rating agencies are rating companies. They are rating banks.
评级机构的评级对象包括公司、银行
They are rating even financial products like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
甚至是金融产品，比如说名声不怎么好的按揭证券。
But they can also rate countries, and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
但评级对象还包括国家，这种评级叫做主权信用评级
and I would like to focus in particular on these sovereign ratings.
今天我就想主要讲一讲这些主权信用评级
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
我敢说，在座的各位听众
you're thinking, so why should I really care about this, right? Be honest.
肯定有人在想，主权信用评级关我什么事？肯定有人在这么想
Well, ratings affect you. They affect all of us.
其实，主权信用评级对你有影响，对我们所有人都有影响。
If a rating agency rates a country,
一家评级机构对国家进行评级
it basically assesses and evaluates a country's debt
主要是评判一个国家的债务状况
and the ability and willingness of a country to repay its debt.
及其履行偿债责任的信用意愿与信用能力
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
所以如果某国主权信用评级下降
the country has to pay more in order to borrow money on the international markets.
那么这个国家在国际市场借债则需支出更多成本
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
所以作为公民和纳税人的你当然受到影响
because you and your fellow countrymen have to pony up more in order to borrow.
因为你和你的同胞们不得不付出更高昂的贷款利息支出
But what if a country can't afford to pay more because it's maybe too expensive?
但如果一个国家负担不起太过高昂的借贷成本怎么办
Well, then the country has less available for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
那么这个国家只能削减服务，比如道路、学校、医疗。
And this is the reason why you should care, because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
所以你必须要关注这个问题，因为主权信用评级影响每一个人。
And that is the reason why I believe they should be defined as public goods.
这正因如此，我认为应将其定义为公共财产
They should be transparent, accessible, and available to everyone at no cost.
透明的、可获取的、免费面向所有人
But here's the situation: the rating agency market is dominated by three players and three players only --
但现在的情况是，评级机构市场被三家机构垄断
Standard And Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
标普、穆迪和惠誉
and we know whenever there is a market concentration, there is really no competition. Right?
众所周知，当市场集中度走高，就不会有竞争。
There is no incentive to improve the quality of your product.
从而也就不会有诱因鼓励大家提高产品质量
And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,
我们只能面对现实
putting the global economy on the brink, and yet they have to change the way they operate.
信用评级机构把全球经济推向边缘，然而他们必须要改变其运作方式
The second point, would you really buy a car just based on the advice of the dealer?
第二点我要说的是，你买车的时候难道是经销商说了算吗
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
明显不是。那是不负责任的做法
But that's actually what's going on in the rating agency sector every single day.
但事实上现在就是这样，评级行业每天都是如此

The customers of these rating agencies, like countries or companies, they are paying for their own ratings,
这些评级机构的客户，比如说国家或公司，他们付费从而获得评级
and obviously this is creating a conflict of interest.
很明显，这其中存在利益冲突。
The third point is, the rating agencies are not really telling us how they are coming up with their ratings,
我要讲的第三点是，评级机构并没有向我们展示他们评级的方法和过程
but in this day and age, you can't even sell a candy bar without listing everything that's inside.
但在如今这个年代，你如果不清清楚楚列出其成分，连一块糖都别想卖出去
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
但就评级来讲
we really do not know what all the different ingredients are.
经济中如此重要的一个元素，我们并不知道其工作方法过程
We are allowing the rating agencies to be intransparent about their work, and we need to change this.
我们允许评级机构工作的不透明性，我们现在需要改变。
I think there is no doubt that the sector needs a complete overhaul, not just a trimming at the margins.
毫无疑问，我认为评级领域需要彻底改革，绝不仅仅是小打小闹。
I think it's time for a bold move. I think it's time to upgrade the system.
是时候采取大动作了。是时候进行改善升级了。
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation have invested a lot of time and effort
正因如此，贝塔斯曼基金会投入大量时间和精力
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
探索如何对评级行业进行改革
And we have developed the first model for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
我们已经建立了一个全新模式，一个非营利性的主权信用评级机构
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
其缩写是INCRA
INCRA would make a difference to the current system by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
INCRA将会改变现行机制，将非盈利性机构加入现有的组合
It would be based on a nonprofit model that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
INCRA基于非盈利性模式，会有持续不断的款项为其奠定基础
The endowment would create income that would allow us to run the operation, to run the rating agency,
这些款项将为其运营者们带来收入，保证评级机构的运营管理
and it would also allow us to make our ratings publicly available.
同时还能够保证我们提供的评级公开可用
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
但仅凭这些尚且无法实现大转变
INCRA would also be based on a very, very clear governance structure that would avoid any conflict of interest,
INCRA还将基于一个十分明确的管理结构，避免利益冲突
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
涵盖社会各界的利益攸关者
INCRA would not only be a European or an American rating agency, it would be a truly international one,
INCRA将不仅仅是欧洲的或者美国的评级机构，它将切实成为全球性的机构
in which, in particular, the emerging economies would have an equal interest, voice and representation.
尤其是考虑到新兴经济体，他们将享有平等的利益、话语权和代表权
The second big difference that INCRA would make is that would it base its sovereign risk assessment on a broader set of indicators.
INCRA要实现的第二大转变，是其主权信用风险评判将基于一系列更广泛的指标
Think about it that way. If we conduct a sovereign rating,
想想看。如果我们进行主权信用评级
we basically take a look at the economic soil of a country, its macroeconomic fundamentals.
我们基本上是要看一个国家的经济土壤、其宏观经济的基本面
But we also have to ask the question,
但我们也必须考虑一个问题
who is cultivating the economic soil of a country, right?
谁在培育这个国家的经济土壤，是不是？
Well, a country has many gardeners, and one of them is the government,
事实上，一个国家有许多位园艺大师，其中之一便是政府
so we have to ask the question, how is a country governed? How is it managed?
所以我们又要考虑的问题是一个国家是如何管理？它又是如何运作的？
And this is the reason why we have developed what we call forward-looking indicators.
正因如此，我们探索开发了我们所谓的前瞻性指标
These are indicators that give you a much better read about the socioeconomic development of a country.
这些指标能够为你更好地解读一个国家的社会经济发展状况
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education. Right?
我希望你能认同的是，你需要了解政府是否愿意投资可再生能源和教育
It's important for you to know if the government of your country is able to manage a crisis,
你需要了解政府是否有能力管理危机
if the government is finally able to implement the reforms that it's promised.
政府是否最终能够推行其承诺过的改革
For example, if INCRA would rate South Africa right now,
例如，如果现在INCRA要对南非进行主权信用评级
of course we would take a very, very close look at the youth unemployment of the country, the highest in the world.
我们肯定会密切审视这个国家的青年失业问题，全球最严重非其莫属。
If over 70 percent of a country's population under the age of 35 is unemployed,
如果一个国家35岁以下的人口当中超过70%处于失业状态
of course this has a huge impact on the economy today and even more so in the future.
显然会对经济产生巨大影响，今天如此，将来更甚
Well, our friends at Moody's, Standard And Poor's, and Fitch will tell us we would take this into account as well.
于是，穆迪、标普和惠誉的同行会说，我们也会考虑这个因素
But guess what? We do not know exactly how they will take this into account.
但你猜怎么着？我们并不知道他们到底会如何将之列入考虑因素
And this leads me to the third big difference that INCRA would make.
这也把我们引到了INCRA要实现的第三个重大转变
INCRA would not only release its ratings
INCRA不仅会公布其评级
but it would also release its indicators and methodology.
还会公布其各项指标以及评级方法
So in contrast to the current system, INCRA would be fully transparent.
因此，与现行制度形成鲜明对比，INCRA将是完全透明的。
So in a nutshell, INCRA would offer an alternative to the current system of the big three rating agencies
总而言之，INCRA将提供除现有的三大评级机构主宰局势的另一种选择
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix that would increase the competition,
通过引入全新非盈利性机构的方式，这将增加竞争
it would increase the transparency of the sector, and it would also increase the quality.
提高评级领域透明度还会提高评级工作的质量
I can tell that sovereign ratings may still look to you like this very small piece of this very complex global financial world,
主权信用评级在你看来，可能还是复杂的世界金融系统中一个小小的组成部分
but I tell you it's a very important one, and a very important one to fix,
但我敢跟你保证，这一改革尤为重要
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
因为主权信用评级影响着所有人
and they should be addressed and should be defined as public goods.
应当将其作为公共财产对待和处理
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
所以，现在我们正在试行这一全新模式
and why we are trying to find out if it can bring together a group of able and willing actors to bring INCRA to life.
我们也在试图探索是否可以召集一组人马，怀揣共同目标，胜任这一工作，给INCRA注入活力
I truly believe building up INCRA is in everyone's interest,
我坚信INCRA的成立符合每个人的利益
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
现在我们享有绝佳时机
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone of a new, more inclusive financial system.
将INCRA打造成为基石，奠定一个全新的，更具包容性的金融体系
Because for way too long, we have left the big financial players on their own.
因为太久以来，我们对金融巨头的行为不闻不问
It's time to give them some company. Thank you.
是时候参与进来了。谢谢。