Vietnam’s Economy Gets Boost from US-China Trade War
Vietnam is expecting solid growth this year as it receives an economic lift from the U.S.-China trade war.
Vietnamese officials have predicted the country's $300 billion economy will grow between 6.6 to 6.8 percent this year. SSI Research, based in Hanoi, reported the estimate.
The research company said strength in manufacturing and exports were mainly responsible for the 2019 prediction. Both areas have experienced growth over the past year as companies moved production to Vietnam from China.
Also, Vietnam's past economy, measured by gross domestic product, or GDP, proved to be larger than had been thought. "They found that they understated their GDP itself," Singapore-based economist Song Seng Wun told VOA.
Earnings results from some companies were not included in earlier GDP estimates. So in August, the government raised its reported GDP by 25.4 percent for money discovered between 2010 and 2017, Vietnamese media reported.
Vietnam has depended heavily on export manufacturing since the late 1980s. That policy has helped Vietnam become one of Asia's fastest-growing economies.
Economic experts say Vietnam is also getting a lift from companies seeking to find a way around problems caused by U.S.-China trade tension.
Some companies facing U.S. tariffs on goods shipped from China are moving business to Vietnam. Some of those companies can produce and ship the same goods from Vietnam without paying U.S. tariffs on a total of $550 billion in goods now made in China.
Frederick Burke is a lawyer with Baker McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City. He told VOA that such market moves to avoid tariffs are now becoming "a real thing" in Vietnam. "It's really happening, so that's going to be driving up prices and driving up GDP a bit," Burke said.
One example is Chinese-based wireless earphone maker GoerTek. The company plans to move production of Apple AirPods to Vietnam for an investment of $260 million, SSI Research said in July. In another case, Google plans to move Pixel smartphone production from China to Vietnam, the Nikkei Asian Review reported in August. Google has not commented on the report.
Kevin Snowball is the Chief Investment Officer for PXP Vietnam Asset Management in Ho Chi Minh City. He said some companies are even trying to send goods made in China to Vietnam and then re-labeling them as "made in Vietnam" for shipment to the U.S.
Burke says the increase in investment by manufacturers attempting to avoid China is putting pressure on land, labor and organizational resources.
Low labor costs, pro-investment policies and a lack of trade tension with the U.S. has readied Vietnam to enter into a trade agreement with the European Union. Vietnam joined the 11-country Trans Pacific Partnership free trade deal this year.
Experts say Vietnam is also seeking to increase investments by software companies and computer parts manufacturers. Intel, Samsung Electronics and Foxconn Technology have all made major hardware investments.
Vietnam grew 7.1 percent in 2018, the highest level in 11 years. Snowball says a growth rate in the high sixes this year would be considered a "strong" showing.
I'm Bryan Lynn.
1.a lack of 缺乏
There was a lack of local talent, so they hired an actor from London.
2.trade tension 贸易紧张
Trade tension between the US and Japan did eventually evaporate 20 years ago.
3.growth rate 增长率
But since then the growth rate of investment and credit growth have rebounded.
4.driving up 抬高；推高
Others claim that government borrowing is driving up interest rates, and that this will derail recovery.
5.The research company said strength in manufacturing and exports were mainly responsible for the 2019 prediction.
be responsible for 对...负责
We are all entirely responsible for our actions, and for our reactions.
The man immediately responsible for this misery is the province's governor.
6.Vietnam has depended heavily on export manufacturing since the late 1980s.
depend heavily on 严重依赖于...
The American farmer has depended heavily on debt as a means of financing farm operations.
The country depended heavily on coal both for industrial and domestic use.
越南官员预计，今年越南经济规模达3000亿美元，经济增速位于6.6%到6.8%之间 。总部位于河内的SSI研究机构报告了这一估值 。
这家研究公司表示，2019年的预计增长主要归因于制造业和出口的强劲 。过去一年里，随着各公司将生产从中国转移到越南，这两大领域都得到了增长 。
此外，以国内生产总值（GDP）来衡量，越南过去的经济规模也超出人们的想象 。新加坡经济学家宋诚焕告诉美国之音：“越南发现低估了本国的国内生产总值 。”
越南媒体报道称，一些公司的盈利未被纳入早前的国内生产总值估值内 。因此，据越南媒体报道，今年8月，越南政府将2010年至2017年期间报告的GDP提高了25.4% 。
自上世纪80年代以来，越南一直严重依赖出口制造业 。该政策帮助越南成为了亚洲增长最快的经济体之一 。
一些面临美国对中国出口货物征收关税问题的公司正在向越南转移业务 。其中一些公司可以从越南生产和出口同类货物，而无需支付美国对中国价值总计5500亿美元货物所征收的关税 。
弗雷德里克·伯克（Frederick Burke）是胡志明市贝克·麦坚时律师事务所的律师 。他对美国之音表示，这类为避免关税的市场举措在越南正在成为“现实 。”伯克表示：“这些情况确实在发生，这会推高物价并拉动国内生产总值增长 。”
总部位于中国的无线耳机制造商歌尔声学就是一个典型 。SSI研究机构在7月份表示，该公司计划投资2.6亿美元将苹果AirPods的生产转移到越南 。另据《日经新闻亚洲评论》8月份报道称，谷歌计划将Pixel智能手机产品从中国转移到越南 。谷歌公司尚未对此置评 。
凯文·斯诺鲍尔是胡志明市PXP越南资产管理公司的首席投资官 。他说，一些公司甚至试图把中国生产的产品运至越南，然后贴上“越南制造”的标签销往美国 。
劳动力成本低廉、支持投资的政策以及与美国贸易关系和谐促使越南准备与欧盟签署贸易协议 。越南今年加入了由11国组成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系自由贸易协定》 。
专家表示，越南也在寻求提高软件公司和电脑零件制造商的投资 。英特尔、三星电子和富士康科技都做出了重大的硬件投资 。
2018年，越南经济增长了7.1%，为11年来最高水平 。斯诺鲍尔表示，今年6.5%到6.9%的增长率将被视为“强劲”表现 。