China’s Economic Slowdown Could Have Big Effect on Southeast Asia
For Southeast Asia, the slowdown of China's economy may have a bigger economic impact than the British vote to leave the European Union.
China's government reported the country's economy expanded at 6.7 percent in the first three months of this year. That is high compared to many countries. However, it is the lowest increase of its Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, since early 2009. GDP is a measure of the monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country.
Joseph Incalcaterra is an economist with the British bank HSBC.
He has studied economic growth in Asia from 2000 to 2014. He says Chinese trade became more and more important in the area during those years. Yet, he notes that China's slowing economy is, in his words, "weighing down exports in the rest of the region."
Estimates place the value of Southeast Asia's economies at $2.6 trillion dollars. However, growth has slowed in seven of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Indonesia has been most affected, at least partly because it exports commodities such as raw materials to China.
However, Southeast Asia's relatively young population and increasing wealth keep growth possible, although its exports to China are slowing.
Earlier this year, the Asian Development Bank predicted economic growth of 4.5 percent for this year and 4.8 percent for 2017 for the area.
Le Hong Hiep is with the Singapore-based research group ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He said he has not seen a lot of impact from China's economic slowdown in Vietnam. He said last year, Vietnam's exports to China grew by almost 15 percent. He said those exports which are mainly raw materials and agricultural products are less affected by a slowing economy.
Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos have had changes in political leadership recently. But that has not stopped the flow of foreign investment to the area. Not only China, but India, Russia and the United States have been increasing investment in the area.
Trade between the U.S. and Vietnam increased to $45 billion in 2015. In addition to existing trade, U.S. President Barack Obama has pushed for the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
The trade deal includes 12 Pacific nations. Four of those countries, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam, are in Southeast Asia. Supporters say the deal counterbalances China's influence in the area's economy.
Brian Eyler is deputy director of the Stimson Center's Southeast Asia Program. He thinks U.S. investment in the area will continue to increase. He says, "We see the U.S. investing more in Southeast Asia, training more, restructuring its diplomatic architecture, to better integrate with Southeast Asia."
Eyler said India and Russia are seeking to do the same. He noted that China's slowdown leaves roads, ports and other public systems underused. In his words, "No one wants to see that go to waste."
I'm Dorothy Gundy.
1.increased by 增加了
His hunger increased by the hour.
2.economic growth 经济增长
The energy crisis stunted world economic growth.
3.raw materials 原材料
Production has come to a halt owing to the lack of raw materials.
4.agricultural product 农产品
The authority has lifted the ban on the sale of the agricultural product.
1.That is high compared to many countries.
compared to 与...相比
After all, compared to your organization, we are the new boys.
All of this was small stuff compared to Renaissance Center.
2.Indonesia has been most affected, at least partly because it exports commodities such as raw materials to China.
at least 至少
At least we don't have to worry about Harbour Pointe any more.
At least we can fall back on candles if the electricity fails.
中国政府报告称，今年首季度经济增速为6.7%，高于全球多个国家 。然而，这是2009年以来中国国内生产总值（GDP）增幅最低的一次 。国民生产总值用于衡量国家生产的所有商品和服务的货币价值 。
Joseph Incalcaterra是英国汇丰银行的经济学家 。
他研究了2000年至2014年亚洲经济增长的数据 。他表示，这些年来，中国的贸易在亚洲变得至关重要 。然而，他指出，中国经济增长放缓影响了亚洲其它国家的出口 。
预计，东南亚经济体总价值达2.6万亿美元 。然而，东盟10个成员国中有7国的经济已经出现放缓 。
Le Hong Hiep就职于总部位于新加坡的尤索夫·伊萨研究所 。他表示，越南并未因中国经济增速放缓受太多影响 。他说，去年越南对中国的出口增长了15% 。受经济增速放缓影响较轻的主要为原材料和农产品 。
最近，菲律宾、缅甸、越南和老挝等东南亚国家都进行了政治换届选举 。但是这并不影响外来资本的流入 。除中国外，印度、俄罗斯及美国都在增加对东南亚地区的投资 。
2015年，美越双边贸易增长达450亿美元 。除现有贸易外，美国总统奥巴马还推动了跨太平洋伙伴关系贸易协定 。
该贸易协定涵盖了12个太平洋国家 。其中包括文莱、马来西亚、新加坡和越南这四个东南亚国家 。支持者称，该协议可以平衡中国对该地区经济的影响力 。
Brian Eyler是史汀生中心东南亚项目部的副主任 。他认为美国对东南亚的投资将会持续增长 。他说，“美国向东南亚投入了更多资金和培训，为更好地促进与东南亚的关系而调整其外交政策 。”
Eyler表示，印度和俄罗斯亦是如此 。他指出，中国经济增速放缓致公路、港口等公共设施未得到充分利用 。“没人愿意看到这些设施被废置 。”