为什么你会有从众心理?
日期:2021-08-14 09:03

(单词翻译:单击)

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Money. It makes the world go round. It also makes us do irrational things.

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金钱,是世界运转的要素,也是我们失去理智的元凶OOu|~u5zax~=y@vWq6.C

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What if that's not entirely our fault?

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如果这一切并不都是你错呢?

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This neuroscientist is studying monkeys to find out.

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这位神经科学家正在研究猴子以寻找答案^2tY0NOi*N&

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You can't take a monkey to, you know, Wall Street and put it on a trading floor.

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你不可能把一只猴子带到华尔街去,然后把它放在交易大厅里;#hs(QClxxTg@vG

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You know, that's kind of absurd.

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这很荒谬v,2g1u-0;Js^cfma,EC

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But what you do instead is we gradually train monkeys to respond to shapes of different colors that can mean you know, buying stock, selling stock, holding, et cetera.

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相反,你所做的是逐渐训练猴子对不同颜色的形状做出反应,那些颜色表示的是买股票、卖股票、持有股票等等b-8Is!Ybck.Hj2YjvSt

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And what we found is that monkeys in a market where there's another monkey will tend to follow what that other monkey does.

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我们发现,如果有另一只猴子,那么市场上的猴子就会模仿另一只猴子的行动iVeu[BE)=|V7]

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So monkeys tend to follow the herd, they copy each other and then they tend to buy, buy, buy, buy, buy and they get into a bubble and then they lose everything which is like, really hilarious but also, I think, really profound

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猴子倾向于从众,它们会照搬彼此的行为,一直买呀买呀买呀买,结果进入了泡沫区,最后失去一切,这挺逗的,不过我觉得也很发人深省,

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because in the exact same task using the exact same stimuli, these shapes, et cetera and we have people play that game we see the exact same thing happen.

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因为在完全相同的任务中,用完全相同的刺激、形状等,让人来玩这个游戏,得到的结果一摸一样OkKtvWNvk*w.7@RAb)

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That's really interesting to us because it tells us that this behavior that we see in people and that has enormous repercussions it's there from a heritage that we share with monkeys going back 25 million years.

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这还挺有意思的,因为它告诉我们,我们在人类身上看到的这种行为产生了巨大的影响,它源自我们与猴子从2500万年前共同继承来的某些要素qk3!Y]XVM%M

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So how do we overcome millions of years of evolution and resist our impulse to follow the herd?

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那么,我们如何克服数百万年的进化,抵制从众的冲动呢?

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This is your brain on money. This is Michael Platt.

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这就是“你对金钱的思考”y&|@iSwN+j1_p@。我是迈克尔·普拉特Z-A]kU-3z^~ayKX%

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A professor of neuroscience at the University of Pennsylvania.

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宾夕法尼亚大学神经科学教授J~!!zdvtwvlWd&C8mus;

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And he loves monkeys.

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他喜欢猴子vw0bHIVksV%9C

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When I was a kid, I was fascinated by monkeys.

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小时候,我就很喜欢猴子IP;]3tdZH.hPmL;j

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I would go to the zoo. I'd watch monkeys for hours.

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我会去动物园tQ.EdHgx)]h,u#G1!x3。我会观察猴子好几个小时K!RK.m&Kk7A

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I just couldn't stay away from it because they were so similar to us and I could see some of the patterns of our own behavior in the way that these monkeys reacted to each other.

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我的视线离不开它们,因为它们和我们太像了,我可以从这些猴子相互反应的方式中看到我们自己的一些行为模式Wz9[;po*hG^LqsL8

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And what we now understand from neuroscience in humans and now, in fact, from my own lab neuroscience in monkeys is that this tendency to follow the herd emerges from our social brain networks.

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现在我们从人类的神经科学以及我自己实验室的猴子的神经科学中了解到的是,这种从众的倾向来自我们的社交大脑网络Oirv[]ucY=x^v2I^0y

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The social brain network allows us to perceive other people and to make deductions about what they're thinking and feeling and those help guide our interactions with them.

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社交大脑网络让我们可以感知到其他人,并推断他们的想法和感受,这有助于指导我们与他们的互动zWQQjCiJ^#QLy)+#Z^

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They help us to choose what to do. It allows us to navigate our social worlds.

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它们帮助我们做出选择_JapvGq+rAs。可以给我们的社交生活导航)5!GojZ*5JE

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Sometimes learning useful information from others.

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有时还能帮我们从别人那里学习有用的信息;tJ!0u=2-7rpMRi+9

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Sometimes learning things that actually don't help us.

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有时候学到的东西对我们也没啥帮助5,P&F+7k!a#l!~Pq

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Right, if everybody's going over that way because there's water over there then it actually makes complete adaptive sense to follow them.

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没错,如果每个人都往那边走因为那边有水,那么跟着他们走就完全有适合意义了YVDZPJ7=bYd6*Ya

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But if everybody's, you know, buying GameStop stock you can get caught in a bubble market and lose all of your money.

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但如果每个人都买GameStop的股票,你就会陷入泡沫市场,失去所有的钱u|qo3K6dtr-a|lRU|aA

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That's not necessarily the most adaptive thing to do.

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那就未必是最合适的做法UHH^mV]0A2-%,l02

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The ability to cooperate with and learn from other people is really the key component of the human adaptive toolkit.

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与他人合作和向他人学习的能力是人类适应能力的关键组成部分fefG0qDv;es9O=#cCOy

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To see just how adaptive we really are let's look at the Asch Conformity Experiment developed in the '50s by Solomon Asch.

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为了了解我们到底有多适应,我们来看看50年代所罗门·阿希所做的阿希从众实验GHOICzGXIHJ

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The premise is simple.

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题目很简单WZk&6Xi3]KbGF-S,J7

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Participants look at a series of lines and determine which of the three lines on the right matches the line on the left.

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参与者会看到一系列的线,然后说出右边的三条线中哪一条与左边的线相匹配6O!O7ga#ZSt

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The catch is that 4 out of the 5 participants here have been instructed to give the wrong answer.

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问题是5个参与者中有4个被要求给出错误的答案v9WidAAgr2r*HmF

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Everyone except Astryd.

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除了Astryd以外,其他人都要给出错误答案^MS]hzFnQQ8vpA(

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Things begin uneventfully as everyone gives their responses.

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一开始一切都很正常,每个人都给出了自己的答案IK+W1t_svkf+GVzso

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Uh, A.

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A.

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A.

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B.

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A? But then something interesting happens.

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A吗?但有意思的事情发生了KZ-w@|,Pc|s]Ow

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Uh, looks like C.

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额,看起来像是CTqe3&o5^Zb

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Yeah, C.

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对,是CYfG=P7VKDDHB0UxC

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Definitely C.

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肯定是C3)QWf^Z2a#*)-wOa

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The continued influence of the group causes Astryd to begin to doubt her own eyes.

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团队的持续性影响让Astryd开始怀疑自己的眼睛xWRlMMRgWK~BK2@5~P.

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Like, I'm familiar with the experiment and I still doubted myself.

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就是,我很熟悉这个实验,但我仍然怀疑自己ds=oYb5&HRT=trg|

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Everyone was so sure that I wasn't anymore.

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别人都很确定自己的答案,我就开始怀疑自己了(dPz+71=(5WE4rSwn|az

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We see this same behavior in the real world all the time.

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我们在现实世界中经常看到同样的行为||SQ_3;0.[

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Look at how we invest our money buy our homes and even shop.

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看看我们是如何投资买房甚至购物的cFx7Mx2BCX|G5P_rL3~N

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When we see the crowd act in a certain way our herd instinct is to follow.

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当我们看到人们以某种方式行动时,我们的群体本能就是跟随XmPQoNZoDXA.bGMJH52l

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We are kind of naturally sensitive to what other people are doing because that provides information that could be useful to us that we didn't have to learn on our own.

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我们天生对别人在做什么很敏感,因为这提供了对我们有用的信息,我们不需要自己去学习这些HpPARhCy%B

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It just reflects the fact that most of us are really really dialed in to each other and we're dialed in because we have this social brain network that is there to make us dialed in to each other.

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它只是反映了这样一个事实,我们大多数人都是真正地相互依赖的,我们之所以相互依赖,是因为这个社交大脑网络让我们彼此依赖88@vUITelae

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So we have this instinct and it's not always useful. How can we overcome it?

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所以我们有这种本能,但它并非总能起到作用Q!|e^;z&FZC=xU。我们怎样才能克服它呢?

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The way our brains make decisions is by iteratively collecting evidence and the more evidence you collect the more likely you are to make the right decision.

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我们的大脑做出决定的方式是反复收集证据,你收集的证据越多,你就越有可能做出正确的决定^E[,L;~;SpR*L!

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So, you know, in thinking about herding and bubble markets I think it's reasonable to suppose that if we could slow people down that would allow more evidence to accumulate and they're more likely to make better decisions and they'll feel better about it afterwards.

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所以,在考虑从众效应和泡沫市场时,我认为有理由假设,如果我们能让人们放慢速度,就可以积累更多的证据,从而让他们做出更好的决定,他们之后也会感觉更好,y#-MP_3Cx

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The human behavior that we see in these financial markets is very deeply baked in.

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我们在这些金融市场中看到的人类行为是非常深刻的-tfO!20R.VP~To6rbQ

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It's not some psychological irrationality or anything like that.

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这并不是什么心理上的不理性之类的东西ePH;JaNCc6[

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It's been wired in by 25 million years plus of evolution.

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它是在2500万年的进化过程中形成的1jaP2bZTbAo]aM;BYOK_

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It's part and parcel of being a primate.

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这是灵长类动物不可或缺的一部分8[#iElvJbqKv

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