There are clear signs that China A-shares could shortly be included in a key international benchmark for the first time — in a way that highlights smarter efforts by the west to help China integrate into global markets.
有明确迹象表明，中国A股可能不久就将首次被纳入一个重要的国际基准指数——此举将突显西方为帮助中国融入全球市场而作出更为巧妙的努力。
Each year since 2014, index provider MSCI has consulted with equity market practitioners on whether the time has been right to admit China A-shares, which are traded on onshore markets, into the MSCI Emerging Market Index. To date, the answer has been “no” — but there are clear signs that this year the answer will be “yes”. A decision is expected in June.
自2014年以来，指数提供商MSCI明晟每年都要征求股市从业人员的意见，询问是不是时候把中国境内市场交易的A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)。往年的答复一直是“不”，但有明确迹象表明今年的答复将是“是的”。预计最终决定将在6月作出。
The reason for the change is this: MSCI has dropped its usual rigorously applied standard terms of entry in favour of a more gradualist and pragmatic approach. The move will involve fewer stocks initially, sourced under simpler institutional arrangements than those offered in previous proposals.
改变的原因是这样的：MSCI明晟已经放弃其通常的、严格应用的标准纳入条款，转而采取一种更为渐进和务实的做法。此举将意味着在初期纳入较少的股票，通过比以往提议更简单的制度安排来选定这些股票。
This is an exciting development, for two reasons. First, even a modest initial inclusion in the index will be a significant step forward in bringing China — which has an equity-market capitalisation of $7.5tn — fully into global capital markets.
这是一个令人振奋的变化，原因有两点。首先，即使是被小范围地初步纳入指数，也将是向前迈出的一大步，最终目标是让总市值高达7.5万亿美元的中国股市全面融入全球资本市场。
Second, it suggests that western companies have taken a leaf out of China’s own book on how to approach the huge challenge of modernising the country’s capital markets.
第二，它似乎表明，在如何应对中国资本市场现代化的巨大挑战方面，西方企业已开始借鉴中国自己的做法。
There are three ways for foreign investors to participate in China A-shares. Two are licensing regimes while the third consists of arm’s length trading arrangements on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
目前境外投资者有三种方式参与中国A股交易。两种是许可制度，而第三种是上海和深圳证交所的常态化交易安排。
The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme and the RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) scheme, introduced in 2002 and 2011 respectively, allow direct access to China’s capital markets. Investors are subject to conditions including licensing requirements, quotas and redemption limitations.
2002年和2011年先后出台的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)机制和人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)机制，允许直接进入中国资本市场。投资者受到各种条件的约束，包括许可要求、额度和赎回限制。
Since 2014 and last December respectively, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have participated in Stock Connect. This programme links them to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and enables foreign investors to buy A-shares with fewer restrictions than under the QFII schemes.
在2014年和去年12月，沪深证交所先后启动了股市互联互通安排。该计划使它们分别与香港交易所(HKEx)实现互联互通，让境外投资者能够购买A股，而且在此过程中受到的限制少于两种QFII机制。
Until this year, MSCI’s proposals to include A-shares in its index were based on the QFII/RQFII framework and 448 stocks. The terms and conditions of the QFII licensing regime, however, were among the obstacles to the market’s acceptance of the proposals.
在今年以前，MSCI将A股纳入其指数的提议是基于QFII/RQFII框架和448只股票。然而，QFII许可机制的条款和条件，是阻碍市场接受该提议的因素之一。
A fresh approach
一种新的方法
MSCI appears to have adapted. Just as China did when pausing for nine years between the launch of QFII and RQFII, and two years between adding the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges to Stock Connect, MSCI is taking a “softly, softly” approach.
MSCI似乎已经做出调整。就像中国在出台QFII和RQFII两种机制间隔九年，在启用沪港通和深港通间隔两年那样，MSCI正在采取“小步走”的做法。
This year, MSCI is proposing to include in the index only A-shares sourced under the Stock Connect regime. This narrows the universe of investible stocks but, as Stock Connect is not subject to the same restrictions governing QFII, the proposal, in our view, has a real chance of being accepted.
今年，MSCI提议仅纳入从沪港通和深港通覆盖的A股中精选的股票。此举意味着可投资股票有限，但由于沪港通和深港通不受与QFII相同的限制，我们认为，该提议有很好的机会得到接受。
Initially, the 169 stocks envisaged under this proposal would increase China’s presence in the Emerging Market Index by just 50 basis points, to 28.6 per cent. But that’s the thin end of the wedge.
最初，该提议设想的169只股票将使中国股票在新兴市场指数中的权重仅提升50个基点，至28.6%。但这只是楔子较薄的一端。
When the 169 stocks go into the index (which we expect will happen in June 2018), they will do so at a low initial inclusion factor. The next step will be for MSCI to increase the weightings.
当这169只股票纳入指数（我们预计这将在2018年6月成为现实）后，它们的初始权重将会较低。下一步将是由MSCI增加权重。
This will immediately take the A-shares’ portion of the index from 50 basis points to 8.6 per cent, in our view. But it doesn’t stop there. Currently, the total number of shares included in the Stock Connect scheme is 1,479 compared with more than 2,900 available under the QFII system.
我们认为，这将立即把中国A股在指数中的权重从50个基点上调至8.6%。但这还不是终点。目前，沪港通和深港通总共覆盖1479只股票，而在QFII机制下可交易2900多只股票。
As Stock Connect grows over time and A-shares become fully included in the index, China’s overall weighting is likely to grow to nearly 40 per cent.
随着沪港通和深港通逐渐发展和A股被全面纳入指数，中国的总体权重可能会增至近40%。
Its share of the MSCI All Country World Index would increase from 3 per cent to 4 per cent, raising it from joint sixth place currently to fourth place behind the US, Japan and the UK (and ahead of France, Canada and Germany).
中国股票在MSCI明晟全球指数(MSCI All Country World Index)中的权重将从3%提高到4%，排名从目前的并列第六升至第四，仅次于美国、日本和英国，但高于法国、加拿大和德国。

Impact on global allocations
对全球股票配置的影响
For some investors, China’s policy risks and economic challenges over the past few years have cast a shadow over the country’s huge potential.
在一些投资者看来，中国在过去几年的政策风险和经济挑战给其巨大潜力蒙上了阴影。
We think that the entry of China A-shares into the Emerging Market Index sooner rather than later will remind investors that the Chinese giant, when it wakes, will have a meaningful impact on their global equity allocations.
我们认为，中国A股早日纳入新兴市场指数将提醒投资者，中国巨人在醒来时，将对他们的全球股票配置产生切实的影响。
The best way to prepare for this, in our view, is to follow China and MSCI and take the long view. That means looking beyond China’s present uncertainties and preparing steadily and purposefully for its rise to even greater prominence in world markets.
在我们看来，对此做好准备的上策是跟随中国和MSCI，把眼光放远。这意味着超越中国目前的不确定性，稳步而有目的地为中国在世界市场上崛起至更加显赫的地位做好准备。
John Lin is a senior research analyst and portfolio manager in China equities at AllianceBernstein
林桦堂(John Lin)是联博(AllianceBernstein)中国股票高级研究分析师和投资组合经理