For most of the past 15 years, China was the darling of emerging market investors as its demand for commodities lifted the fortunes of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

过去15年大部分时间里，中国是新兴市场投资者的宠儿，它对大宗商品的需求使拉美、非洲和亚洲国家的经济出现起色。

But now, as China nurses a hangover from its debt-fuelled boom, fund managers are increasingly shunning it.

然而如今，在中国艰难应对一轮债务助长的繁荣引发的宿醉之际，基金经理人纷纷避开中国。

My way of describing our portfolio is to call it the post-China-world portfolio, says Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist and head of the emerging markets equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

摩根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)首席全球策略师、新兴市场股票团队主管鲁奇尔•夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)表示：对于我们的投资组合，我将其称为‘中国后世界’组合。

The whole positioning is that China’s dream run is over and you have to look for investments that are as uncorrelated to China as possible.

总体仓位原则是中国梦行情结束了，必须寻找尽可能与中国无关的投资项目。

He identifies South Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and parts of eastern Europe as relatively attractive emerging markets.

他指出，南亚、菲律宾、越南、印尼及东欧部分地区是相对有吸引力的新兴市场。

His scepticism towards the world’s second-largest economy is echoed by other fund managers, who see China’s corporate debt, the flagging dynamism of its private companies, and little progress in reform of state-owned enterprises as weighing on the country’s prospects for years to come.

他对全球第二大经济体的怀疑态度，得到其他基金经理人的呼应，他们认为中国的企业债问题、民营公司活力下降、以及国企改革几乎毫无进展，都在拖累中国今后多年的前景。

Our portfolios are very underweight on China, says Gerardo Zamorano, manager of emerging market strategies at Brandes Investment Partners, which oversees $26bn in investments.

掌管着260亿美元投资的布兰德斯投资合伙公司(Brandes Investment Partner)的新兴市场战略经理赫拉尔多•萨莫拉诺(Gerardo Zamorano)表示：我们在投资组合中配置给中国的权重很低。

The gearing of the corporate sector in China has increased dramatically and a large part of new corporate loans are going towards paying off existing debts.

中国企业部门的杠杆率已戏剧性提升，新增企业贷款的很大一部分正被用于偿还现有债务。

Shadow finance is also a concern.

而影子金融也是个令人担心的问题。

Such disenchantment is reflected in a widening divergence between funds allocated to China-related assets and those invested in emerging markets as a whole, according to statistics compiled by EPFR.

根据EPFR编制的统计数据，专注于中国的基金和投资于新兴市场总体的基金的资金流动方向相反，这也反映了上述失望情绪。

The research company’s numbers show that while fund managers have poured capital into emerging markets as a whole since early July, they have withdrawn it from specialist China funds since mid-June.

这家研究公司的数据显示，尽管自7月初以来基金经理人纷纷将大笔资金注入新兴市场总体，但自6月中旬以来他们一直在从专注于中国的基金撤资。

The main deterrent is China’s corporate debt.

这其中让他们害怕的主要是中国的企业债。

Although this issue has been well-flagged, disquiet over its size and sustainability is deepening.

尽管这个问题早已得到极大强调，但对其规模和可持续性的不安正在加深。

A report by S&P Global Ratings estimates that China’s total outstanding corporate debt in 2015 was $17.8tn, or 171 per cent of GDP, making its corporate debt mountain by far the world’s largest in both absolute and relative terms.

据标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)发布的一份报告估计，2015年中国未结清企业债总计达17.8万亿美元，与国内生产总值(GDP)之比为171%。不论是绝对规模还是相对比率，中国企业债大山都是全球遥遥领先最大的。

Not only is the ratio of Chinese company debt to GDP more than double that in the US and the eurozone, it is projected to grow far more quickly as an increasing number of heavily indebted companies ramp up borrowing simply to repay debts that are due.

中国企业债与GDP之比超过美国和欧元区两倍，不仅如此，随着越来越多债务沉重的企业仅仅为偿还到期债务而增加借款，预计这一比率将大幅加快上升。

By 2020, China’s outstanding corporate debt will be $32.6tn, while its share of global company borrowings will have risen to 43 per cent from 35 per cent last year, according to S&P estimates.

根据标普(S&P)的估计，到2020年，中国未结清企业债将达到32.6万亿美元，其占全球企业借款的份额将从去年的35%升至43%。

More worrying than China’s debt mountain is its shaky internal structure.

比中国债务大山更令人担心的是其摇摇欲坠的内部结构。

Just over half of the 1,943 large Chinese companies assessed by S&P fell into the agency’s highly leveraged category, the most risky of five classifications based on a company’s perceived ability to service debts out of earnings.

在标普评估的1943家中国大型企业中，略高于一半落入该机构的高度杠杆化类别——在根据企业借助盈利偿还债务本息的能力划分的五种类别中，这是风险最高的类别。

Such dynamics have divided opinion.

这种局面引发了不同看法。

Some say a sudden slowdown in China’s growth rate would push legions of Chinese groups over the edge, resulting in a surge in bond defaults and non-performing loans.

有人表示，中国经济增速突然放缓，会让大量中国企业集团陷入困境，导致债券违约和不良贷款激增。

Others counter that the Chinese state will ride to the rescue to prevent any systemic credit crunch.

而其他人反驳称，中国政府会出手救援，以阻止任何系统性的信贷紧缩。

China’s debt is overwhelmingly a family affair, says Luke Spajic, head of portfolio management for emerging Asia at Pimco, an asset manager. We expect leverage to rise, but the important point is that they are borrowing within the family.

资产管理公司太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)新兴亚洲组合投资管理主管卢克•斯帕伊奇(Luke Spajic)表示，中国债务在很大程度上属于家庭事务，我们预计杠杆率将上升，但重要的是他们在家庭内部借贷。

He notes China’s economy is largely a closed system in which state-owned banks, which are answerable ultimately to Beijing, lend to domestic companies, while bonds are bought mostly by state-owned financial institutions.

他指出，中国经济基本上是一个封闭的体系，国有银行最终对中央政府负责，它们贷款给国内企业，而债券多数由国有金融机构购买。

Beijing’s control over this system, allied to its policy of flooding the economy with liquidity, has meant that financial institutions take a dovish attitude to non-performing loans and encourage debt rollovers.

中国政府对这个体系的控制，再加上向经济投入巨额流动性的政策意味着，金融机构对不良贷款态度温和并鼓励债务滚转。

The S&P report estimates that $13.4tn, or nearly half, of credit demand in China by 2020 will be for refinancing purposes.

标准普尔的报告估计，到2020年，13.4万亿美元（相当于近一半）的中国信贷需求将用于再融资。

Thus, Mr Spajic says, while China has a plethora of problems — including private sector investment growth falling close to zero, a reliance on inefficient state-owned enterprises and a high level of bad debts in the banking system — the strength of state control should allow Beijing to manage its frailties.

因此，斯帕伊奇表示，尽管中国存在很多问题（包括私营部门投资增速降至接近零的水平、依赖低效率的国有企业以及银行体系坏账水平较高），但政府控制的优势应该会让北京方面管理其弱点。

Nevertheless, he expects China to resume a policy of currency depreciation to lift growth.

然而，他预计，中国将重启人民币贬值政策以提振增长。

Other managers say China’s debt problems bedevil the whole emerging markets investment opportunity because China assets generally have a large weighting in benchmark indices, meaning benchmark-linked funds are unable to avoid a hefty exposure to China.

其他资产管理公司表示，中国的债务问题困扰着整个新兴市场投资机遇，因为中国资产一般占基准指数的较大权重，这意味着与基准指数挂钩的基金无法规避巨大的中国敞口。

For example, the MSCI Emerging Market index has a 26 per cent weighting to China.

例如，中国在MSCI明晟新兴市场指数中占有26%的权重。

The resolution of the Chinese question is something that weighs across the EM asset class, says Leon Eidelman, emerging markets portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

中国问题的解决拖累着整个新兴市场资产类别，摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新兴市场组合投资经理莱昂•艾德尔曼(Leon Eidelman)表示，

I don’t think it takes a lot to look at the Chinese financial sector and see how precarious some of these banks are.

我认为，不需要花费很多时间研究中国的金融业，就会发现其中一些银行是多么岌岌可危。

The amount of off-balance-sheet loans, loans that are booked as receivables, and short-term lending to non-bank financial institutions far outweighs capital buffers.

表外贷款（被记为应收账款的贷款）以及发放给非银行金融机构的短期贷款，远远超出了资本缓冲。

However, Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life, says China is such a large country that even though its GDP growth rate is likely to slow gradually as Beijing grapples with its debt problem, there will still parts of the economy that remain attractive .

然而，标准人寿(Standard Life)新兴市场经济学家亚历克斯•沃尔夫(Alex Wolf)表示，中国规模庞大，尽管在北京方面应对国内债务问题之际，GDP增速可能逐渐放缓，但一些经济领域仍然具备吸引力。

While steel, cement, mining and other old-economy stalwarts are struggling, there are plenty of opportunities in the service and technology sectors for those who take a more nuanced view of China, Mr Wolf says.

沃尔夫表示，尽管钢铁、水泥、采矿等传统中坚行业步履维艰，但对于那些对中国有着更细腻认识的人，服务业和科技行业存在大量机会。

As for the rest of Asia, economies such as those of the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and India provide investors with plenty of scope for emerging market investing, he adds.

他补充称，对于亚洲其他国家而言，菲律宾、越南、印尼和印度等经济体为投资者提供了大量新兴市场投资空间。