The commodity price slump will not lead to a 1980s-style rash of sovereign defaults, despite obstacles blocking the necessary fiscal reform in many exporting countries, according to analysis by Oxford Economics.

根据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的分析，尽管种种障碍阻碍许多大宗商品出口国开展必要的财政改革，但大宗商品价格暴跌不会导致类似上世纪80年代的主权信用违约潮。

However, a further wave of sovereign downgrades is likely — with rating agencies still overrating exporters by two notches on average — and a few more countries may be forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund.

不过，考虑到评级机构对大宗商品出口国的评级仍平均偏高两个等级，可能会出现新一轮主权信用评级下调，被迫向国际货币基金组织(IMF)低声下气要钱的国家还会再多几个。

Oxford Economics identified 28 sovereign defaults by 17 emerging market countries in the wake of the 1980s commodity slump, with Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador and Iran all defaulting twice.

牛津经济研究院发现，在上世纪80年代的大宗商品价格暴跌后，有17个新兴市场国家发生了28次主权信用违约。其中，巴西、阿根廷、智利、秘鲁、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔和伊朗都曾两次违约。

So far this time, none of the 26 big commodity exporters identified by Oxford has defaulted, and it believes only Venezuela has a greater than 10 per cent chance of doing so.

而这一次，到目前为止，牛津经济研究院认定的26个大宗商品出口大国还没有一个发生违约，该机构认为只有委内瑞拉违约的可能性大于10%。

Moreover, only Ghana and Rwanda are on IMF programmes. Although Angola, which has sought a bailout of up to $1.5bn from the fund, is likely to follow suit, Oxford thinks Ecuador and Zambia are the only other commodity exporters with a more than 25 per cent likelihood of joining them this year.

此外，只有加纳和卢旺达正在接受IMF项目的援助。牛津经济研究院认为，在其他大宗商品出口国中，只有厄瓜多尔和赞比亚有大于25%的可能性在今年加入上述两国的行列——尽管安哥拉也有可能加入它们。目前，安哥拉已寻求从IMF获得最高15亿美元的纾困。

“When I first looked at [these countries] I thought they would all be queueing at the IMF,” says Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research at Oxford.

牛津经济研究院全球宏观研究主管加布里埃尔•斯特恩(Gabriel Sterne)表示：“我刚开始考察（这些国家）的时候，我以为它们都会在IMF门前排队。”

He attributes this resilience to two related factors. First, there is an absence of “debt-funding cliffs”. In the 1980s, US interest rates rose as high as 15 per cent, sending yields on dollar-denominated debt spiralling. This time round, borrowing costs have remained more manageable.

他将这次的坚挺归功于两个相关因素。首先是这次没有“债务融资悬崖”。上世纪80年代，美国利率曾攀升至15%的高位，导致以美元计价的债券收益率急剧上升。这一次，借贷成本一直保持在更可控的水平。

Second, emerging market sovereigns have become less likely to borrow in dollars in the first place, instead issuing bonds in their domestic currencies. This means debt service costs do not rise if and when their currencies depreciate against the dollar, and also reduces the incentive for debtor countries to default on, or reschedule, their dollar debt in order to improve their finances.

其次，新兴市场国家以美元借贷的可能性从一开始就降低了，相反它们会以本国货币发行债券。这意味着在它们的货币对美元贬值时（假如这种情形出现的话），偿债成本不会上升。同时，这么做也降低了债务国通过对其美元债务违约或进行重组来改善财政状况的动力。

“You don’t have the funding cliffs and that’s quite a change,” Mr Sterne says. “It’s liquidity that gets you in the end, that’s why you default. It’s not because of the ever-growing stock of debt.”

斯特恩表示：“这次没有‘融资悬崖’，这是一个很大的不同。最终给你致命一击的是流动性，这是导致违约的原因。不断增长的债务并不是违约的原因。”

Despite that, Mr Sterne still believes there are problems ahead. Instead of a wave of defaults, he envisages an adjustment process that is more of a “long, hard grind”, due to weaker economic growth than in the 1980s.

尽管如此，斯特恩仍然认为前头还会遇到问题。他预计，由于当前经济增速低于上世纪80年代，虽然不会出现违约潮，却会出现一个调整过程——一段“长期、深重的磨难”。

Moreover, Oxford’s analysis suggests that about a third of the 26 countries — namely Venezuela, Iraq, Mongolia, Angola, Zambia, Nigeria, Gabon, Algeria and Azerbaijan — need to overhaul their fiscal structures in order to reduce reliance on commodities and rebalance public finances.

此外，牛津经济研究院的分析称，这26个国家中，有三分之一需要彻底改革财政结构，以减少对大宗商品的依赖，使公共财政重新达到平衡。这些国家是委内瑞拉、伊拉克、蒙古、安哥拉、赞比亚、尼日利亚、加蓬、阿尔及利亚和阿塞拜疆。

In each of these countries energy and minerals account for at least three quarters of goods exports, and the states are adjudged to be high risk, based on a combination of their public debt, fiscal balance, current account and foreign exchange reserves, all measured with respect to their gross domestic product, and GDP per capita, as illustrated in the first chart.

以上每一个国家的能源和矿产都占到商品出口的至少四分之三。如第一张图表所示，综合考虑这些国家的公共债务、财政平衡、经常账户和外汇储备，并根据它们各自的国内生产总值(GDP)以及人均GDP对这些数据进行衡量之后，牛津经济研究院判定，这些国家存在高风险。

“The task for asset managers is to make a judgment whether there is a way back from the precipice, possibly via IMF programmes, and to what extent currencies will suffer during adjustment,” Mr Sterne says.

“资产管理公司的任务是就是判断是否有从悬崖回头的路，或许可以通过IMF的项目实现，以及判断这些国家的货币在调整时期将遭受多大痛苦，”斯特恩说。

In many countries, the necessary adjustment process faces significant obstacles, Oxford argues.

牛津经济研究院认为，在许多国家，必要的调整过程面临显著障碍。

Azerbaijan, Kuwait, South Africa and Zambia, for instance, are deemed to suffer from a combination of a weak government and popular opinion that is firmly against adjustment.

比如，该机构认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、南非和赞比亚面临的障碍是，弱势的政府以及坚决反对实施调整的民意。

Indonesia is seen as being in the same boat, but with the added problem of ideological opposition to reform within the government.

印尼被认为存在同样的问题，但它还面临另一个障碍：政府内部在意识形态上对改革的反对。

Some countries suffer from just one of these problems, while a need to fund development and basic infrastructure works against the likelihood of fiscal reform in Cameroon, Gabon, Ivory Coast and Rwanda. The second chart illustrates these perceived obstacles by country.

一些国家只面临上述三个障碍中的某一个。喀麦隆、加蓬、科特迪瓦和卢旺达这几个国家进行财政改革的障碍是，需要投入资金搞发展和基本基础设施建设。第二张图表按国别说明了这些障碍。

One obvious plus point is the partial recovery in the prices of many commodities from the lows they touched in January.

一个明显的有利条件是，许多大宗商品的价格从1月触及的低点反弹了一些。

Brent crude, for instance, is now trading at about $45 a barrel, rather than $27. This is in line with, or above, the oil prices assumed in the budgets of Angola, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Ecuador and Kuwait, although it remains below the levels pencilled in by Bahrain, Ghana, Russia, Colombia and Mexico.

比如，布伦特原油(Brent crude)目前的交易价格约为每桶45美元，而非27美元。这个价格等于或者高于安哥拉、委内瑞拉、沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亚、厄瓜多尔和科威特预算案中设定的油价，不过仍低于巴林、加纳、俄罗斯、哥伦比亚和墨西哥预算案中设定的油价。

Mr Sterne argues that while the rebound in commodity prices is “extremely helpful” in the short term, it does obviate the need for fiscal adjustment, which a lot of countries are already “reluctant to embrace”.

斯特恩认为，尽管大宗商品价格反弹在短期来看“极其有帮助”，但它也消除了财政调整的必要性，何况有很多国家本来就“不情愿进行”财政调整。

Furthermore, it is unlikely to save exporting nations from further downgrades by the rating agencies, he argues. Oxford’s analysis suggests commodity exporters are typically rated two notches higher than other emerging markets with the same sovereign bond yields, suggesting “rating agencies are too optimistic relative to markets”.

此外，他认为这也不太可能让大宗商品出口国免于被评级机构进一步降级。牛津经济研究院的分析师认为，比起主权债券收益率相同的其他新兴市场国家，大宗商品出口国的评级普遍高两个等级，这表明“相对于市场来说，评级机构过于乐观”。