There are three kinds of policymakers at the Federal Reserve, goes the chatter in the markets: hawks, doves and chickens. It was the third type of bird that was setting policy last week, when the US central bank decided to hold interest rates at their historic low. And while market pricing — as opposed to surveys of economists — had largely anticipated the decision, the Fed still surprised in the extent of its caution, citing China, global financial uncertainties and overly low domestic inflation as reasons to stand still.

市场总是在说，美联储(Fed)有3种政策制定者：鹰派、鸽派和小鸡派。上周制定政策的显然是小鸡派，因为美联储决定将利率维持在历史最低位。尽管市场定价（而不是对经济学家的调查）此前基本上预计到了该决定，但美联储的谨慎程度仍令人感到意外，这家美国央行把中国、全球金融不确定性和国内通胀过低等多项因素列为暂缓加息的理由。

Its lack of action will have the biggest impact on other developed country central banks that are also at the zero lower bound of monetary policy. With the euro once again gaining ground against the dollar, the European Central Bank could signal as soon as October that it will expand its quantitative easing programme — perhaps first by extending its end date beyond September 2016 and then by increasing monthly purchases.

美联储按兵不动，对同样徘徊于零下限货币政策的其它发达国家央行的影响最大。随着欧元兑美元再次上涨，欧洲央行(ECB)可能最早在今年10月暗示，将扩大其量化宽松项目——或许首先把结束日期推至2016年9月以后，然后增加月度购买金额。

The odds have also risen that the Bank of Japan will add to its current accommodation, though it is likely to take longer to decide. And surely the Bank of England, which was seen as the bank most likely to “follow the Fed” and raise rates in its wake, will now be able to hold off in the face of decidedly mixed economic data.

日本央行(BoJ)加大当前宽松政策力度的可能性也在增加，尽管它可能需要更长时间才能做出决定。而此前被认为最有可能“跟随美联储”、紧随其后加息的英国央行(BoE)，现在将能够在经济数据明显好坏参半的情况下按兵不动。

Emerging markets, meanwhile, can be roughly divided into three groups, reckons Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the FT: those where the Fed’s forbearance makes little difference, those where it is helpful and those where it only complicates policy.

至于新兴市场，英国《金融时报》旗下的宏观研究服务机构Medley Global Advisors认为，可以把它们大致分成3组：美联储不加息决定几乎没有影响的国家，美联储不加息决定有帮助的国家，以及美联储不加息决定只是让政策更为复杂化的国家。

As we were

一切照旧

China will continue to plough its own furrow. A weaker dollar might reduce the pace of capital outflows from the mainland and the scale of intervention by the People’s Bank of China, but not by much. While expectations of further yuan depreciation remain entrenched, outflows will continue and cuts in interest rates and reserve requirements will come in response to that.

中国将继续致力于国内事务。美元走弱可能有助于减缓中国的资本外流，减少中国人民银行(PBoC)的干预规模，但幅度都不会太大。在人民币进一步贬值预期依然根深蒂固之际，资本外流将会持续，而中国将出台降息降准举措作为应对。

Russia will also continue to cut rates, and as fast as falling domestic inflation allows, in order to support a rapidly shrinking economy. A weaker dollar is helpful but it is the oil price and the pass-through to inflation from previous rouble weakness that are critical.

俄罗斯也将在不断下降的国内通胀允许的情况下继续降息，以支持迅速萎缩的经济。美元疲弱有所帮助，但关键是油价以及上一波卢布弱势对通胀的影响。

Most of central and eastern Europe is also unaffected, but for much happier reasons. Economic growth in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania remains strong or at least decent; inflation remains low; and with rates already at record lows, the region’s central banks can afford to wait for a gradual strengthening of eurozone and, hopefully, global growth.

大多数中东欧国家也不受影响，但原因可喜得多。波兰、匈牙利、捷克和罗马尼亚的经济增长依然强劲（或者至少还算不错）；通胀依然保持低位；而且利率已经处于创纪录的低点，该地区的各国央行等得起欧元区乃至全球逐步恢复强劲增长。

With a little help from my friends

吾友之助

Fed forbearance, on the other hand, will come in very handy in some of the most fragile emerging economies. After raising rates faster and further than it ever intended, Brazil’s central bank declared itself to be on hold from late July. But it is already under renewed pressure to act as inflation climbs ever higher and the currency’s collapse to almost R$4 to the US dollar following the country’s downgrade to a junk credit rating. Steady US rates and a weaker greenback may be just enough to help the Bacen avoid inflicting further pain on Brazil’s recessionary economy.

另一方面，美联储不加息决定对一些最为脆弱的新兴经济体非常有用。在加息速度和幅度超出初衷后，巴西央行宣布从7月下旬起暂停加息。但它已经受到新的采取行动的压力，因为通胀越来越高，而且在该国的信用评级被降至垃圾级之后，雷亚尔汇率暴跌至近4雷亚尔兑1美元的水平。美国利率稳定和美元疲弱可能有助于巴西央行避免给衰退的国内经济带来更多痛苦。

Similarly, the longer the Fed delays hiking, the better for Turkey. Rates will have to rise at some point given poor inflation data, a weak currency and what looks like continuing political deadlock even after a second election in November. But growth is weak and the longer the central bank can avoid tightening, the more pleased its political masters will be.

同样，美联储越推迟加息，就越有利于土耳其。鉴于通胀数据糟糕、货币疲弱以及看起来即便在11月第二次选举之后政治僵局仍会持续，土耳其将不得不在某一时点加息。但土耳其增长疲弱，该国央行越迟收紧政策，其政治主子就会越高兴。

South Africa, another of the original “fragile five” EMs, faces the same constraints. Activity is anaemic, the currency weak and domestic inflation too high — with the risk of further large wage settlements for miners driving it higher. In response, the Reserve Bank started normalising rates in July, but the more it can take its time, the less likely it is to push the economy into recession.

南非是最初的“脆弱五国”(Fragile Five)的一员，该国面临同样的制约。经济活动低迷，货币疲弱以及国内通胀过高——矿工们争取到的进一步大幅加薪协议还可能进一步推高通胀。作为回应，南非央行在今年7月走上利率正常化道路，但它越能放慢脚步，经济陷入衰退的几率就越小。

Mexico, while in a much stronger position, also has reason to thank the Fed. Because of its proximity to the US and the deep liquidity of its markets, which makes the peso more volatile than fundamentals justify, it was seen as another country bound to follow the Fed higher. Yet with domestic inflation at barely 2.5 per cent, its lowest level since the 1960s, there is absolutely no reason to do so domestically.

墨西哥的处境尽管要强劲得多，但也有理由感谢美联储。由于毗邻美国，而且市场流动性泛滥（这使比索的波动性超出基本面因素的影响范围），此前墨西哥被视为又一个注定追随美联储加息的国家。然而，由于其国内通胀率仅有2.5%，为上世纪60年代以来的最低水平，墨西哥本身完全没有理由加息。

Some of Asia’s central banks are probably pleased as well — but for the opposite reason. They had anticipated a Fed hike this year and some, like Bank Indonesia, were indeed calling for their US peers to get on with it. But underneath they were concerned about the impact of further dollar strength on their currencies and what they might be forced to do — in terms of intervention and even monetary policy — to shore them up. From a purely domestic standpoint, by contrast, they would prefer to stimulate spending by households and businesses and to compensate for slow public infrastructure investment. South Korea will very likely cut rates again before year end. And if Fed lift-off is delayed into next year, then Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand may feel free to ease as well.

亚洲一些国家的央行也可能感到高兴，但出于相反的理由。它们此前预计美联储将在今年加息，的确，印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)等央行曾呼吁美联储爽快地按计划加息。但在根本层面，它们担心美元进一步升值对本币的影响，以及它们为了支持汇率而被迫出台干预乃至货币政策措施。相比之下，从纯粹国内的角度来看，它们宁愿刺激家庭和企业支出，对公共基础设施投资放缓做出补偿。韩国很有可能在年底前再次降息。如果美联储推迟至明年加息，那么马来西亚、印尼和泰国也可能有放松政策的空间。

Between the Fed and a hard place

被美联储和绝壁挤在中间

One of the trickiest upcoming policy meetings will be that of Banrep, Colombia’s central bank, on September 25. Following several unexpectedly high inflation prints, investors are anticipating the start of a hiking cycle. But with Banrep’s board seemingly split between hawks and doves, it has so far held off. MGA was expecting the board to vote 4-to-3 to raise rates by 25bp this week, with governor Jose Uribe switching his vote in favour of the move. Now that the Fed has stayed on the sidelines, however, perhaps Colombia will too.

即将举行的最为棘手的政策会议之一将是哥伦比亚央行在9月25日举行的会议。在通胀接连意外高企之后，投资者预计哥伦比亚将开启加息周期。但由于该行理事会的鹰派和鸽派似乎势均力敌，它迄今保持利率不变。Medley Global Advisors本来预计，哥伦比亚央行理事会本周将会以4票对3票的表决结果加息25个基点，行长若泽乌里韦(Jose Uribe)将改变立场，投票支持加息。然而，既然美联储按兵不动，或许哥伦比亚央行也会如此。

Its Andean neighbour, Chile, opted to hold rates earlier this month and while its next move will also be an increase, delays in US tightening could prompt the Chileans to postpone the beginning of their cycle as well, especially if the peso now stays on an even keel. Meanwhile, Peru, which already started to hike to counter rapidly rising prices, will probably be forced to continue — but could look a little exposed over the next few months and a strengthening sol could damage exports.

哥伦比亚在安第斯山脉的邻国智利本月早些时候选择保持利率不变，尽管它的下一步也将是加息，但美国延迟收紧政策，可能促使智利央行也推迟加息周期，尤其是如果现在智利比索汇率保持平稳的话。与此同时，秘鲁已经开始加息以对抗价格的迅速上升，该国很可能被迫继续加息，但未来几个月该国面临的风险看起来有点大，秘鲁比索不断升值可能破坏出口。

If the Fed has only delayed lift-off by a month or three, then the effect on EM monetary policy will not be significant or long-lasting. But there are tactical difficulties to changing policy either at its meetings in October (no scheduled press conference and no new forecasts) and December (year-end liquidity issues). Which is why markets are not fully pricing a rate rise until March 2016. If it stays on hold until then, that really would have implications for its peers, not least by signalling a lack of confidence in the global outlook. By year end, we will know which birds are really in charge.

如果美联储推迟加息仅仅1个月或3个月，那么新兴市场货币政策所受的影响将不大，也不会持久。但在其10月政策会议（没有安排记者会，也不会做出新的预测）和12月政策会议上（年底的流动性问题）改变政策存在战术上的困难。正因如此，从市场价格看，市场预计美联储在2016年3月之前不会加息。若果真如此，那就真的会对其他央行产生影响，尤其是因为这显示美联储对全球前景缺乏信心。到今年底，我们会知道真正执掌美联储的是什么鸟。