中国黯淡数据引发刺激政策预测
日期:2015-05-16 10:35

(单词翻译:单击)

The Chinese economy continued to slow in April, prompting predictions of more fiscal and monetary stimulus from Beijing, much of which is likely to boost its booming stock market.
中国经济在4月继续放缓,促使人们预测北京方面将出台更多财政和货币刺激措施,而这些措施有很大一部分很可能推高处于牛市中的股市。
Fixed asset investment, a key driver of the economy, expanded by 12 per cent in the first four months of the year from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2000 and down from 13.5 per cent in the first quarter.
中国经济的关键驱动力——固定资产投资在今年头四个月同比扩张12%,这是自2000年以来最慢的步伐,而且低于第一季度13.5%的同比增幅。

That was driven largely by sliding investment and construction in the crucial real estate sector, which is suffering from oversupply and tepid demand.
这在很大程度上可归因于重要的房地产行业投资和建设不断下滑,该行业正遭遇供应过剩和需求乏力。
Overall property investment in the country grew 6 per cent in the first four months from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from 8.5 per cent growth in the first quarter and the slowest pace since May 2009.
中国的总体房地产投资在今年头四个月同比增长6%,相比第一季度的8.5%出现急剧减速,而且是自2009年5月以来最慢的增速。
Growth in retail sales came in at 10 per cent in April from a year earlier, down slightly from 10.2 per cent in March but the weakest monthly reading in nine years.
4月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长10%,仅略低于3月的10.2%,但却是9年来最疲弱的月度同比增幅。
China is almost certain to grow at its slowest pace in 25 years this year and the government will struggle to meet its already lowered target of “around 7 per cent” expansion.
今年中国几乎可以肯定将录得25年以来最慢的经济增长,政府要达到其已经下调的“7%左右”的增长目标将有难度。
“Today’s activity data suggest that the momentum of growth during the first month of the second quarter could have slowed further to below 7 per cent,” said Liu Ligang, economist at ANZ bank. “Thus, more growth stabilisation policies could be expected to roll out.”
“今日发布的经济活动数据似乎表明,第二季度第一个月的增长势头可能进一步放缓至7%以下,”澳新银行(ANZ bank)经济学家刘利刚表示。“因此,可以预期会有更多的稳增长政策出台。”
On Sunday China cut benchmark interest rates for the third time in six months to shore up flagging activity.
上周日,中国在六个月内第三次下调基准利率,以提振疲弱的经济活动。
The central bank has also lowered the proportion of deposits banks must hold in reserve (known as the reserve ratio requirement) twice since the start of the year, including a 100-basis-point cut last month that was the biggest since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.
自年初以来,中国央行还两次下调了存款准备金率,包括上月的100个基点下调,那是自2008年金融危机最严重时期以来的最大幅度“降准”。
Most analysts expect Beijing to continue cutting interest rates and the RRR in the coming months.
多数分析师预计,北京将在未来几个月继续降息和下调存款准备金率。
“We expect sequential growth momentum to improve in the coming months, but given the deep-rooted challenges such as the severe overcapacity problem in upstream industries, any improvement will still be rather fragile,” said Yang Zhao, an economist at Nomura. “Hence, we expect policy to remain accommodative.”
“我们预计,环比增长势头将在接下来的几个月出现起色,但考虑到根深蒂固的挑战,比如上游产业产能严重过剩的问题,任何好转都仍将是相当脆弱的,”野村证券(Nomura)经济学家赵扬表示。“因此,我们预计政策将保持宽松。”
While the government has tried to target its stimulus policies to benefit the economy and keep construction going across the country, much of the fresh liquidity has found its way into the booming stock market, helping the benchmark index to double in the past year.
虽然政府一直试图出台针对性的刺激政策,以求惠及经济,扶持全国各地的建设活动,但相当大一部分新的流动性进入了不断上涨的境内股市,推动基准股指在过去一年翻倍。
After the data release yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.58 per cent after rising 1.6 per cent on Tuesday.
昨日数据公布后,上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index)下跌0.58%,周二该指数上涨1.6%。
Japan’s Nikkei stock index erased early losses to end up 0.7 per cent on hopes of fresh Chinese stimulus.
受中国出台新刺激措施的希望鼓舞,日本的日经股指(Nikkei stock index)昨日止跌转涨,收盘上升0.7%。
On the bright side, some analysts highlighted data suggesting the year-long slump in demand for Chinese real estate could be coming to an end.
从光明的一面看,一些分析师强调了一些似乎表明持续一年的中国房地产需求低迷可能即将结束的数据。
For example, the floor area of property sold in the first four months of the year fell 4.8 per cent from a year earlier, an improvement on the 9.2 per cent year-on-year decline in the first quarter.
例如,今年头四个月的商品房销售面积同比下降4.8%,相比第一季度9.2%的同比降幅有所好转。

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