IMF警告 欧美复苏新兴市场疲软
日期:2015-04-20 11:22


WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that continued weak growth in emerging economies would reduce global growth despite an improving outlook in the United States and Europe.
华盛顿——国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund,简称IMF)周二警告称,尽管美国和欧洲的前景日渐改善,但新兴经济体的增长持续疲软,可能会减缓全球增长。

The fund unveiled its spring economic forecasts as central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financiers from around the world converged here for a week of networking, deal-making and crisis management (in the case of Greece and its continuing debt talks).
The fund highlighted how high levels of debt and fragile banks, in addition to slowing emerging markets, could threaten sustained economic growth.
“A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world,” said Olivier Blanchard, the I.M.F.‘s chief economist. “Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises — weak banks, and high levels of public, corporate and household debt — are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process.”
“一些复杂的力量正在影响世界各地的前景,”IMF首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)说。“在一些国家,金融危机和欧元区危机的影响,即脆弱的银行和国家、企业、家庭的高额债务,依然压制着开支和增长。低增长反过来又让减债成了一个缓慢的过程。
The fund, which for some time has been making the case that the world’s postcrisis recovery remains uneven and fragile, made its most extreme downward growth revisions in large emerging-market economies.
Growth forecasts for Brazil, Russia and Mexico were slashed for 2015, with a mix of uncertain politics, weak commodity prices and volatile exchange rates cited as factors.
Growth for emerging markets is expected to be 4.3 percent next year, which would make it the fifth consecutive year that activity declined compared with the previous year. Some outliers were cited: India is projected to grow at 7.5 percent this year and next, which would put it ahead of China as the fastest-growing of the large emerging markets.
China, once a main driver of global growth, is now expected to grow at 6.8 percent in 2015 and 6.3 percent in 2016, with overheating property markets and questionable loans remaining concerns. Over all, the fund estimates global growth of 3.5 percent this year, increasing to 3.8 percent in 2016.
Emerging-market specialists have argued for some time that these economies are diverging. In one sector are the economies that are making economic reforms and benefiting from investor inflows, as in China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines, they say. Then there are the growth laggards, like Brazil and Russia, which have been hampered by governance problems and commodity downturns, they say.
“Growth is harder to come by these days, and that is why lots of countries now are focusing more on reforms,” said Samy B. Muaddi, an emerging markets bond manager at T. Rowe Price. The fund also upgraded its economic forecast for the eurozone, projecting growth of 1.6 percent in 2015. Economists cited the renewed sense of optimism surrounding the European Central Bank’s commitment to buy government bonds as a means to stimulate economic activity. The relatively positive outlook for Europe contrasts with the fund’s comments on Europe last fall when it took Germany to task for not doing more to jump-start a recovery in Europe.
“眼下,增长更难实现了,这正是很多国家现在把重点放在改革上的原因,”普信(T. Rowe Price)的新兴市场债券经理萨米·B·穆阿迪(Samy B. Muaddi)说。IMF还上调了对欧元区的经济预期,预计其2015年将增长1.6%。经济学家将其归之于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)坚决通过购买政府债券来刺激经济活动,重新唤起了一些乐观情绪。欧洲相对乐观的前景,与IMF去年秋天对欧洲的评论形成了对比。当时,该组织斥责德国没有采取更多措施推动欧洲的复苏。
Now there are strong signs of increased bank lending and economic activity in Germany, Spain and even Italy, where the policies of the new prime minister, Matteo Renzi, are having a positive effect.
如今有明显的迹象表明,德国、西班牙乃至意大利的银行贷款和经济活动都增加了。意大利新一届总理马泰奥·伦齐(Matteo Renzi)的政策,正在发挥积极效果。
With the United States set to grow at 3.1 percent this year and next, the fund said that the large developed economies would need to assume a dominant role in driving global growth. Low interest rates and lower oil prices would help, economists said.
The fund said that the dollar’s recent strong run could add half a percent to global growth, with the stimulative effect of weaker currencies in Japan and Europe prevailing over reduced exports in the United States.
Still, as equity markets hit new highs, lifted by a wave of large-scale corporate deal making, more economists are coming around to the view that the American economy is strong enough to absorb an expected increase in interest rates this year by the Federal Reserve.
然而,随着股票市场受一波大型企业交易浪潮的抬升而屡创新高,更多的经济学家转而认为,美国经济的强劲程度足以承受更高的利率。美联储(Federal Reserve)预计将在今年提高利率。
“The U.S. economy is in very good shape,” said Rick Rieder, a senior bond executive at the asset management giant BlackRock, citing the 250,000 jobs the economy has created in some months.
“美国经济的状态非常好,”资产管理巨头贝莱德(BlackRock)的债券事务高管里克·里德(Rick Rieder)说,并例举美国经济在一些月份的新增工作岗位达25万个。
Whether Greece can strike a deal with its creditors before running out of money will be a major topic of discussion this week. Many of the main players — including the Greek and German finance ministers, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank, and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who represents European creditors — will be in town this week.
希腊能否在资金告罄前与债权人达成协议,将是本周主要的讨论话题。很多主要的参与者,包括希腊和德国的财长、欧洲央行的马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)以及代表欧洲债权人的杰伦·戴塞尔布卢姆(Jeroen Dijsselbloem),本周都将出现在这里。
The fund expects Greece to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent this year, a figure most economists see as wildly off the mark. The view now is that it will be lucky to grow at 1 percent this year, as deposits continue to leak from its banks in the face of fears of a messy exit from the eurozone.
The two leaders in the Greek debt situation will get a chance to present their cases publicly on Thursday, when Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, are scheduled to speak, separately, at the Brookings Institution.
周四,参与希腊债务问题处理的两名领导人——希腊财长亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)和德国的对等官员沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schäuble)——都将有机会公开陈述自己的观点。两人定于周四在布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)分别发表演讲。

  • sustainedadj. 持久的,经久不衰的
  • globaladj. 全球性的,全世界的,球状的,全局的
  • prospectsn. 预期;前景;潜在顾客;远景展望
  • bondn. 债券,结合,粘结剂,粘合剂 vt. 使结合,为 .
  • projectedadj. 投影的,投射 v. 投射(project的过去
  • primeadj. 最初的,首要的,最好的,典型的 n. 青春,壮
  • questionableadj. 可疑的,可置疑的
  • investorn. 投资者
  • counterpartn. 相似之物,副本,对应物
  • absorbvt. 吸纳,吸引 ... 的注意,吞并