英文原文

Why Investors Need To See The Light And Slow Down

Don't be happy; worry.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 46% since March 9, when the world itself seemed to be coming to an end. In the entire 113-year history of the Dow, only six rebounds have been bigger and faster. But the swiftness and magnitude of this bounce-back aren't reasons to be cheerful; they are reasons to be cautious.

In March, stocks traded as low as 11.7 times their average earnings over the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation, according to finance professor Robert Shiller of Yale University. That put the market at its lowest valuation since January 1986. Today, however, stocks are selling at 18.4 times Prof. Shiller's measure of earnings. That isn't only up hugely from March but is above the long-term average of 16.3 times earnings.

Robert Rodriguez, chief executive of First Pacific Advisors in Los Angeles, says that in March, investors feared getting crushed in a further decline. Now all they seem afraid of is missing an even greater rally.

Mr. Rodriguez is convinced that the consensus -- economic recovery by early next year at the latest -- is wrong. 'People are talking about whether the shape of the recovery will be a 'V' or a 'W' or even a 'square root,'' he says, 'but I think we are in what I call a 'caterpillar economy.' It will be up and then down, up and then down. We will be far from normal for a very long period of time. People deploying capital will end up destroying capital.'

I am not as worried as Mr. Rodriguez, but it is at times like these, when a rising market sweeps our spirits up with it, that investors need to evaluate their emotions and consider whether their beliefs and actions are justified.

In August, corporate insiders -- officers and directors of public companies -- sold nearly 31 times as much stock as they bought. From last September through this past March, in the depths of the bear market, that ratio was just 2 to 1, according to TrimTabs Investment Research of Sausalito, Calif. The long-term average is about 7 to 1.

The people who run companies don't know exactly what the future holds, but they do know more about their own firms than outsiders do. If they are furiously selling, how eagerly should the rest of us be buying?

It is well-known that investors chase past performance, buying whatever has just made the most money for other people. What isn't commonly understood is that investors also chase their own past performance, buying more of whatever they themselves have made the most money on.

Research by economist David Laibson of Harvard University shows that 401(k) participants tend to add significantly to whichever funds they already own that have gone up the most. 'Investors expect,' Prof. Laibson says, 'that assets on which they personally experienced past rewards will be rewarding in the future, regardless of whether such a belief is logically justified.'

That is exactly what seems to be happening now: In June, according to Hewitt Associates, 401(k) participants put 41.0% of their new contributions into stocks. In July, as the Dow shot up 725 points, they pushed that rate up to 42.3%. Participants also cut their contributions to 'lifestyle' funds that keep a portion of their assets in bonds and cash.

The market's latest hot streak makes the future feel predictable, but it isn't. The Dow had an uncannily similar 46.5% gain in the 117 days that ended April 9, 1930; it lost almost 51% over the next year. Another 47% upswing in 1971 led to a long, choppy decline of more than 37%. The market also could go nowhere, as it did for months after a similar-size gain in 1975. Or it could hit new heights, as it did in 2004 after rising 47% from the lows of 2002.

In his classic book 'The Intelligent Investor,' the great money manager Benjamin Graham wrote that 'the investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances.' If you can't exercise that kind of emotional control, then by Graham's definition you aren't an investor at all.

I see nothing wrong with dollar-cost-averaging into this market, purchasing a fixed amount every month -- especially in a low-cost stock index fund. But to buy more of what has gone up, precisely because it has gone up, is to fall for the belief that stocks become safer as their prices rise. That is the same fallacy that led investors straight into disaster in 1929, 1972, 1999, 2007 and every other market bubble in history.

The market's light has turned yellow. Don't try to run it.

中文翻译

别太高兴，要心存忧患意识。

自3月9日股市似乎触底以来，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数累计上涨了46%。在道琼斯指数113年的历史中，只有6次反弹势头比这次幅度更大、速度更快。但这次股市反弹如此迅速、强劲不应当成为高兴的理由，反而值得担忧。

据耶鲁大学金融教授席勒(Robert Shiller)计算，按照过去10年经过通货膨胀因素调整的平均收益计算，今年3月美国股市市盈率只有11.7倍。以这个指标来看，当时美国股市处在1986年1月以来的最低估值水平。但今天按照席勒的收益指标计算，美国股市市盈率已经飙升到了18.4倍，不仅较3月份显著走高，也明显高于长期平均水平16.3倍。

Heath Hinegardner
洛杉矶First Pacific Advisors首席执行长罗德里格斯(Robert Rodriguez)表示，3月份投资者害怕会遭受股市进一步下跌。现在他们唯一担心的似乎是错过一波更大涨势的机会。

罗德里格斯相信，市场普遍看好经济最迟会在明年年初前实现复苏的观点是错误的。他表示，人们现在都在讨论经济复苏的形态是V型还是W型，甚至是“平方根号√型”。但他认为，美国正处在他所谓的“毛虫式经济”状况中，走高之后再走低，周而复始。在非常长的时期内，我们都会远达不到正常状况。现在部署资本的人最终将毁坏资本。

我并不像罗德里格斯那么担忧，但正是在像现在这样的市场状况下，也就是股市节节攀升带动投资者情绪一路升温的时候，投资者需要评估他们的情绪，考虑一下他们的想法和举措是否合理。

今年8月，上市公司内部人士（管理人士和董事）抛售的股票规模是他们买入规模的将近31倍。而TrimTabs Investment Research的数据显示，去年9月到今年3月的熊市过程中，这一比例只是2比1。这一比例长期水平大约是7比1。

运营公司的人并不知道未来究竟会怎样，但他们确实比外部人士更了解自己的公司。如果他们都在急切地抛售，我们其他人如何还能热切买进？

众所周知的是，投资者追逐过去的表现，买进任何刚刚为别人赚了最多钱的金融产品。而鲜为人知的是，投资者还追逐自己过去的表现，更多地买进一些曾让他们大赚一笔的产品。

哈佛大学经济学家莱布森(David Laibson)的研究显示，参加了401(k)退休计划的人往往会大量增持手里已经持有的、涨幅最大的基金。莱布森说，投资者认为，那些曾让他们亲身经历过收益的资产未来还会带来回报，无论这样的想法是否合逻辑。

现在的情况似乎正是如此：据人力资源咨询公司翰威特公司(Hewitt Associates)的数据，6月份，参加401(k)退休计划的人将新缴纳资金的41.0%投入了股市。7月份，随着道琼斯指数上涨725点，这些人将这一比例增加至42.3%。他们还减少了“生活方式”基金中的投资，这类基金将他们的部分资产投入债券和现金。

市场最近的上涨让未来看似可以预测了，不过实际情况并非如此。在截至1930年4月9日的117天中，道琼斯指数上涨了46.5%，涨幅与这次惊异地相似；在随后的一年中，却跌了近51%。1971年，道琼斯指数涨了47%，之后却经历了一场漫长振荡的下滑，跌幅超过37%。股市也可能持稳，就象1975年一场类似幅度的上涨后的几个月里发生的情况一样。股市还可能触及新高，就象2004年的情况一样，当时股指较2002年的低点涨了47%。

伟大的理财大师格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)在他的经典之作《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)一书中写道，拥有表现强劲的股票的投资者应该料到股价会波动，他们不应该因暴跌而烦恼，也不该因飙升而狂喜。如果你无法做到如此的情绪控制，那么照格雷厄姆的定义，你根本就不算是个投资者。

我认为，在现在的股市行情下采用成本平均法（也就是每个月都买进固定的数额）并没有错，特别是在一只低成本股指基金上。不过仅仅因为一只股票涨了，就增持这只股票，这样做就被以下这个看法蒙骗了：一只股票的价格越涨，这只股票越安全。1929年、1972年、1999年和2007年，以及历史上其他历次市场泡沫中，正是这样的错误导致投资者一头栽进了灾难之中。

股市上的交通信号灯已经变成黄灯了。不要试图闯过去。