Economists Worry About the Effects of a ‘No-deal’ Brexit
Concerns are growing that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union will cause economic problems for both sides.
Making matters worse is the possibility that some European countries may see their economies decrease in the coming months.
This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend Parliament for weeks. The goal of the action is to prevent lawmakers from passing legislation to block the country from leaving the EU without negotiating an agreement. The time limit for "Brexit," as it is called, is October 31.
Negotiators have failed to reach an agreement in the three years since a majority of the British people voted to leave the EU in 2016. Many experts now believe a so called "no-deal Brexit" is likely to happen.
Economists and business experts say the result of a no-deal Brexit would cause widespread problems and disorder. Problems could include new taxes on trade, slower movement of people and goods at borders, and problems with licenses to do business in other countries.
Brexit timing also an issue
Britain's withdrawal comes at an uncertain time for the EU. The trade dispute between the United States and China has already raised concerns for Europe. And Germany, which depends on exports and manufacturing, is facing the possibility of a recession. Germany could "be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months' time." That is what Andrew Kenningham said. He is an economist with Capital Economics, a research group in London.
Germany is Europe's largest economy. From April to June, its economy shrank. Many economists believe the same will happen from July to September. That means the country would be in a recession as a no-deal Brexit takes place.
Some economists also predict that Britain could fall into a recession as well. They estimate the British economy would shrink by about three percent.
Italy's economy did not grow at all from April to June and could also face a recession.
Supporters of Brexit, however, say companies have had more than three years to prepare. Finally leaving, they say, would remove uncertainty.
Nigel Driffield is a professor of international business at Warwick Business School in Britain. He said it could take months or even years for terms of trade to be fully agreed on between Britain and the EU.
He said some companies could prepare by planning for the future.
"However, suppose another (supplier), perhaps in another country, fails to prepare, your part of the value chain still grinds to a halt, and your customer still stops ordering. What do you do?" Driffield asked.
Driffield expects a no-deal Brexit to lead to five to 10 years of negotiations over trade. That is about as long as negotiations with Canada took to complete.
The EU is Britain's largest trading partner, representing half of its international trade. Trade with Britain is 20 percent of the EU's trade total. By comparison, 18 percent of Britain's exports go to the U.S.
Experts say the European countries that would suffer the most from a no-deal Brexit would be smaller ones that ship goods heavily to Britain, like the Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland. Larger economies, like those of Germany and France, would suffer less.
The effects outside of Europe are not expected to be very large. However, financial markets could be influenced, weakening the world economy.
Possibly as a result of the lack of clarity, the European Central Bank is expected to announce new measures to ease the availability of money as soon as September 12.
Some experts warn that such measures will help over the short term, but they say politicians must act to reach trade agreements and end disputes.
I'm Mario Ritter Jr.
1.set fire 放火
The crowds stormed the government building and set fire to the prosecutor's office.
2.cut off 切断
If we start from the south we can cut off their reinforcements.
3.tear gas 催泪瓦斯
And the police battered the protesters with tear gas, shotguns and rubber bullets.
4.out of place 不合适的
I felt out of place in such lush surroundings.
5.In addition to protesting the comments, some demonstrators are calling for independence for Papua.
In addition to 除了
In addition to my weekly wage, I got a lot of tips.
In addition to the killed and wounded, many were missing.
6.A national military spokesman said more than 1,000 people had taken part in the protest.
taken part in 参加
You can take part in activities from canoeing to bird watching.
Cadres have gone down to different grass-roots units to take part in manual labour.
本周，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊暂停议会数周 。此举旨在防止议员通过立法阻止该国在未达成协议的情况下脱离欧盟 。英国脱欧的截止日期为10月31日 。
自2016年大多数英国人投票支持英国退出欧盟以来，谈判代表历时3年未能达成协议 。很多专家现在认为，可能会发生所谓的“无协议脱欧 。”
经济学家和商业专家表示，无协议脱欧将会导致大量的问题和混乱状况 。其中可能包括新贸易税，边境人员和货物流动滞缓，以及在其它国家开展业务的许可证问题 。
英国脱欧正值欧盟的一个不确定时期 。中美之间的贸易争端已经引起欧洲的担忧 。依赖出口和制造业的德国正面临经济衰退的可能性 。如果英国在两个月内无法达成脱欧协议，德国可能“遭受重创 。”以上为安德鲁·肯宁汉姆（Andrew Kenningham）的观点 。他是伦敦研究机构凯投宏观的经济学家 。
德国是欧洲最大的经济体 。该国从4到6月经济有所萎缩 。很多经济学家认为，7月到9月经济萎缩会继续 。这意味英国如果无协议脱欧，该国将会陷入经济衰退 。
一些经济学家还预测，英国也可能会陷入经济衰退 。他们估计英国经济将会萎缩3% 。
然而，支持英国脱欧的人表示，各公司已经准备了3年多 。他们指出，最终英国脱欧将会消除这些不确定性 。
奈杰尔·德里菲尔德（Nigel Driffield）是英国华威商学院的国际商务学教授 。他说，英国和欧盟之间的贸易条款可能需数月甚至数年才能达成全面协议 。
德利菲尔德预计无协议脱欧将导致5到10年的贸易谈判 。这跟完成与加拿大谈判的时间大致相当 。
欧盟是英国最大的贸易伙伴，占该国国际贸易的一半份额 。与英国的贸易占欧盟贸易总额的20% 。相比之下，英国18%的出口产品进入美国 。
专家表示，如果无协议脱欧，受影响最大的欧盟国家将是那些货物主要出口到英国的较小国家，如荷兰、比利时和爱尔兰 。规模较大的经济体遭受的损失更小，如德国和法国 。
预计欧盟以外的地区的影响不会太大 。但是金融市场可能会受到影响，削弱世界经济 。