It has been one year since President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal. Iran and the other countries have stayed in the agreement. Now, Tehran and Washington are both raising the stakes. Iran is threatening to stop complying with two provisions of the deal, and the Trump administration is imposing a new round of sanctions that will hurt Iran's economy even more.
Ariane Tabatabai is an Iran analyst with the RAND Corporation, and she joins us now to make sense of these moves. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
ARIANE TABATABAI: Thanks for having me.
SHAPIRO: So Iran says that it is not withdrawing from the deal as the U.S. did, but it's taking some steps away from it. What exactly did President Hassan Rouhani announce today?
TABATABAI: Yeah, that's right. The Iranians are still eager to remain in the deal because they believe that right now, the blame is essentially entirely on the United States. And they look like the responsible party that is continuing compliance with the deal, despite the U.S. withdrawal. The steps that were announced were that Iran will stop to comply with two provisions, as you said, which cap Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium and heavy water. And so Iran is now going to take steps to go above the limits that have been fixed by the agreement, although it's not clear that it is actually going to start going above the limits quite yet.
SHAPIRO: Why do you think they're doing this now, a year after the U.S. pulled out of the agreement?
TABATABAI: Well, it's precisely because it's been one year, and the Rouhani government — the moderates in Iran — have received a lot of pushback for essentially sitting on their hands for a year while the Trump administration first withdrew and then started to impose sanctions. So domestically, opponents of the deal are saying that, look; Iran is not getting anything out of the deal. The economic benefits that were promised to Iran are not materializing. And so what's the point of unilaterally implementing this deal?
SHAPIRO: Now, the U.S. is not only imposing more sanctions; it's also taking some military action, sending B-52 bombers and an aircraft carrier to the region. On Morning Edition today, the State Department's top policy adviser on Iran, Brian Hook, said the U.S. received several credible threats by Iranian forces and wanted to send a clear message.
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BRIAN HOOK: We obviously are not looking for war with Iran, but we are postured and ready to defend U.S. forces and interests in that region.
SHAPIRO: What do you make of those moves and that explanation of the reasons for them?
TABATABAI: Well, Brian Hook is right that the United States does not want war, and I think the Iranians also don't want war. The challenge, though, is that we don't currently have an off-ramp, official channels of communication that would allow us to de-escalate and to avoid miscalculation that could actually lead to conflict.
SHAPIRO: The U.S. has said it hopes that the economic pressure on Iran will get the country to behave differently in the region and also, perhaps, come to the U.S. asking to renegotiate the nuclear deal with terms that are more favorable to the United States. How likely do either of those goals seem to you?
TABATABAI: Well, frankly, there is no appetite in Iran right now for further negotiations. And I would also add that the administration's stated objectives are very broad. It's not just about renegotiating the nuclear deal, but also Iran's missile program and regional activities. So coming to the table to negotiate such a all-encompassing deal would essentially be a unilateral sort of capitulation from Iran. And that has no support within the system right now.
SHAPIRO: Well, in that case, what do you think the most likely endgame here is?
TABATABAI: Well, I think what Iran is trying to do here is — you know, they don't want to leave the JCPOA. So what they're trying to do is to get the Europeans to try to compensate for the U.S. withdrawal, to try to, you know, be more flexible in its compliance with U.S. sanctions and to afford Iran the economic recovery that it wants. The other thing they're trying to do is try to send a signal domestically that they're flexing muscles, and they're not just sitting by as the Trump administration continues to increase pressure.
SHAPIRO: That's Ariane Tabatabai of the RAND Corporation. Thank you so much for joining us today.
TABATABAI: Thanks for having me, Ari.
一年前，特朗普总统宣布美国退出伊朗核协议 。伊朗和其他国家则留在协议内 。现在，伊朗和美国相继抬高赌注 。伊朗威胁要停止履行伊核协议中两项条款，特朗普政府则宣布了新一轮制裁措施，这些措施将进一步损害伊朗经济 。
阿里亚娜·塔巴塔巴伊是兰德公司的伊朗分析师，她将帮助我们了解这些举措的意义 。欢迎你做客《全盘考虑》节目 。
塔巴塔巴伊：没错 。伊朗仍然想留在协议内，因为他们认为美国要承担全部责任 。而他们仍在继续履行协议，尽管美国已经退出 。如你所说，伊朗宣布将停止履行两项条款，不再遵守有关浓缩铀和重水的储备限制 。也就是说，伊朗在这两种物质上的储量将超出协议规定的限制，不过目前并不清楚是否真的会超出限制 。
塔巴塔巴伊：正是因为时间已经过去了一年，属于温和派的鲁哈尼政府受到了很多非议，因为自特朗普政府宣布退出协议并施加制裁以来，政府已经袖手旁观了一年 。伊朗国内反对这项协议的人认为，伊朗不会从协议中获得任何好处 。协议中承诺伊朗的经济利益并未实现 。那单方面履行协议还有什么意义？
夏皮罗：美国不仅施加了更多制裁，还采取了军事行动，将B-52轰炸机和一艘航空母舰派往该地区 。今天的《早间报道》提到，美国国务院首席政策顾问布莱恩·胡克表示，伊朗军队向美国发出了多个真实的威胁，而美国想传达一个明确的信息 。
塔巴塔巴伊：布莱恩·胡克说的没错，美国并不想开战，我认为伊朗同样不想开战 。不过，现在面临的挑战时，目前没有可以缓和局势同时避免错误的官方沟通渠道，而缺乏沟通可能引发冲突 。
塔巴塔巴伊：说实话，伊朗现在无意进行进一步协商 。我还要指出的是，特朗普政府的既定目标相当宏大 。他们不仅要重新协商核协议，还想就伊朗的导弹项目和区域活动展开谈判 。因此，对伊朗来说，坐上谈判桌协商这样一份包罗万象的协议基本上可以等同于投降 。目前来看，这在伊朗不可能得到支持 。
塔巴塔巴伊：在我看来，伊朗并不想退出《联合全面行动计划》（简称JCPOA，即伊核协议） 。因此，伊朗在试图让欧洲为美国的退出进行补偿，试图在应对美国的制裁时更具灵活性，能负担得起伊朗希望的经济复苏 。另外，伊朗还在试图向国内传递这一信号：他们有实力，不会在特朗普政府继续加大压力时坐视不理 。
夏皮罗：以上是兰德公司的阿里亚娜·塔巴塔巴伊带来的报道 。谢谢你今天做客节目 。
1. comply with 服从；遵守；
The commander said that the army would comply with the ceasefire.
2. be eager to do sth. 热切的；渴望的；
Robert wa s eager to talk about life in the Army.
3. pull out of 退出，撤出（协议、比赛或组织）；
David had to pull out of the Championships when his horse went lame.
4. sit by (对错误或违法的事情)坐视不理，作壁上观；
We can't just sit by and watch you throw your life away.