Will US-China Trade War Help or Hurt Vietnam?
Vietnam could be one of the biggest winners or biggest losers in a changing global economy. That finding comes from Moody's Investors Services, a financial company.
Recently, Moody's announced findings of a study that looked at 23 countries across the Asia Pacific region. It found that Malaysia, Taiwan(China), Thailand and Vietnam were the most likely to gain from trade moving away from China.
But, Vietnam was among the countries that could be most hurt by a trade slowdown, too.
The Southeast Asian country has been searching for a way to gain from trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
But those gains might not last, especially if a trade war between the world's two biggest economies reduces global trade overall.
Analysts say that Vietnam, a trade-dependent country, needs to be ready.
Sian Fenner is a lead economist at Oxford Economics in Singapore. She wrote that Vietnam's "dependence on foreign investor flows also makes it vulnerable to changing global sentiment."
Fenner added, "As a small, open economy heavily dependent on external trade, an increase in protectionism and slower global trade would have significant ... effects for Vietnam, even if it is not the direct target of increased tariffs."
U.S. President Donald Trump put tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products last summer, citing the country's unfair trade practices. China responded with its own import taxes on U.S. goods. Government officials from both sides are supposed to meet this month to resolve the dispute.
However, observers are divided on how likely a resolution to the conflict will be.
The trade war, combined with similar trade protectionism around the world, raises the chances of global economic instability.
While Vietnam cannot do much about the trade policies of other countries, it has received a number of recommendations on how to help itself. Advisers urge Vietnam to make reforms to its economy, for one.
Three experts, Tuan Ho, Trang Thi Ngoc Nguyen, and Tho Ngoc Tran, wrote in a report for Yusof Ishak Institute that the Vietnamese government should get serious about privatizing some state owned companies. They also suggested support for small businesses, such as through loans, and tougher screening of foreign investments.
The three noted that economic reform and wise public investments would help Vietnam deal with economic problems in the future. "That is particularly important in the context of a long-lasting global trade tension," they conclude.
I'm John Russell.
1.global economy 全球经济
Major developing countries are becoming important engines of the global economy.
2.public investments 公共投资
Public investments in schools and health care in rural areas remain barely visible.
3.foreign investments 外国投资
Foreign investments help our economic development.
4.looked at 考虑；着眼于
Thomas and his wife looked at each other in smug satisfaction.
5.The Vietnamese government should get serious about privatizing some state owned companies.
get serious about 对...认真
I said we shouid get serious about me going away.
Several years ago I decided to get serious about my physical health.
6.The Southeast Asian country has been searching for a way to gain from trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
searching for a way to 设法...
We will always search for a way to end the cycle of destruction.
While searching for a way to augment the family income, she began making dolls.
在不断变化的全球经济中，越南可能会成为最大赢家或输家之一 。这一发现来自金融公司——穆迪投资者服务公司 。
最近，穆迪公布了针对亚太地区23个国家的研究结果 。研究发现，马来西亚、中国台湾地区、泰国以及越南最可能从中国转移出去的贸易中获益 。
希恩·芬纳（Sian Fenner）是新加坡牛津经济顾问公司的首席经济学家 。她写道，越南对“外国投资者流动的依赖也会导致其易受到全球（投资者）情绪不断变化的影响 。”
去年夏天，美国总统特朗普以中国不公平贸易行为由，对价值500亿美元的中国产品征收关税 。作为回应，中国也对美国产品征收了进口税 。双方政府官员本月将举行峰会来解决这一争端 。
虽然越南无力干预其它国家的贸易政策，但是该国已经获得了一些如何帮助自身的建议 。例如，顾问们督促越南进行经济改革 。
Tuan Ho、 Trang Thi Ngoc Nguyen 和 Tho Ngoc Tran 三名专家在尤索夫研究所的一份报告中写道，越南政府应该认真对待一些国有企业的私有化 。他们还建议支持小企业，如通过贷款和严格审查外国投资等方式 。
三位专家指出，经济改革和合理的公共投资将有助于越南应对未来的经济问题 。他们总结称：“在全球贸易关系长期紧张的情况下，这一点尤为重要 。”