VOA慢速英语(翻译+字幕+讲解):世界杯预测:前三甲西班牙,巴西和德国?
日期:2018-06-15 14:56

(单词翻译:单击)

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听力文本

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World Cup Predictions: Spain, Brazil, Germany, or Russia

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The 2018 FIFA World Cup began Thursday in Russia. Football fans have waited four years to see their favorite teams compete for the world championship.

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It is the year's biggest sporting event. People across the world are already making their predictions for which team will win.

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Professional bookmakers create odds, which use large amounts of information to measure the probabilities for winners and losers. People use those odds to decide which teams to bet on. The bookmakers then pay off those bets.

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For 2018, the bookmaker odds clearly favor Brazil to win the World Cup. Defending champion Germany is second, with Spain and France not far behind.

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But this year, several groups have also turned to machine learning and artificial intelligence, or AI, for predictions.

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One of the groups is a research team from Germany. Andreas Groll of the Technical University of Dortmund led the group.

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In a report on the results, Groll said his team used computers to simulate the whole World Cup competition 100,000 times. Machine learning was used to predict the expected number of goals made by each team in each game. The prediction method combined large amounts of information on the teams' abilities and individual players' performances from the past.

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So who did Groll's machines pick as the winner? The results chose Spain as the most likely World Cup champion, with a probability of 17.8 percent. Germany was next, followed by Brazil, France and Belgium.

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However, Groll's team said it could not predict Spain as the sure winner. This is because of the way the World Cup competition is structured.

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The reason Spain has a small lead over Germany is mostly because Germany has a higher chance of not making it to the quarterfinals. But if Germany does make it to the quarterfinals, the German team would actually be favored to beat Spain, the researchers said.

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In another recent prediction created through machine learning, the financial company Goldman Sachs chose Brazil as the 2018 World Cup winner. Germany was chosen as the team most likely to lose to Brazil.

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The company said its method was based on 200,000 data models and 1 million simulations of the whole World Cup. Machines examined information on the teams and players' abilities, as well as past performances. In 2014, Goldman Sachs also predicted Brazil to win the World Cup. But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.

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Many people who are interested in the 2018 World Cup will surely take note of the numbers-based predictions by bookmakers and AI machines.

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But others might choose to believe the choices of a cat said to have psychic abilities. The cat, named Achilles, lives in Russia's Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg.

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Achilles officially works there as a mouse catcher. But some locals say the animal is also able to predict future happenings. So far, he has only predicted one World Cup match, the opening game between Russia and Saudi Arabia. When offered a choice between two containers of food, Achilles chose the one with a Russian flag.

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The choice could be seen as a good luck sign for Russia's team. Even though Russia is holding the World Cup, its team is rated the lowest of any of the 32 competing.

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I'm Bryan Lynn.

重点解析

1.good luck 好运

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He attributes his success to good luck.

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他把成功归因于运气好Y)UfHnkLV4nrK_

2.the World Cup 世界杯

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I hope still to be in the side when the World Cup comes around next year.

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我希望明年世界杯举行的时候我仍然效力于该队gIc^wno0|x-_x;Hr70

3.the world championship 世界冠军

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That baseball team appeared to be a match for the world championship.

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那个垒球队看样子是世界冠军队的对手NX;9tEtC7=itQqGn

4.pay off 付清

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I'll pay off my debt with this check.

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我将用这张支票清偿欠债Xucmob8M2G

5.Machines examined information on the teams and players' abilities, as well as past performances.

as well as 和...一样;也

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Moral as well as financial support was what the West should provide.

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西方国家应该提供道义支持和经济援助%E=+2bQYQ6J~@hG=

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She can play tennis as well as basketball.

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她也会打篮球,也会打网球0#LKJAO^ZR

6.But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.

ended up 结束;最终

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She could have ended up a millionairess.

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她本可以成为百万富婆的MmzQQh&k&.9S[c-

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I ended up in hospital with facial injuries.

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我落得个面部受伤,进了医院TTfRi2oFoKTB

参考译文

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世界杯预测:西班牙、巴西以及德国或夺冠

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周四,2018年国际足联世界杯在俄罗斯开幕Ly9NpHI#J37(90_oy#。足球迷们翘首期盼了4年才迎来他们喜欢的球队争夺世界杯冠军]7c2[lNJ,Yv-D

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这是今年最盛大的体育赛事JTjI%KSPB+#ML2Dn7pF。世界各地的人们已经在预测哪支球队会夺冠C87&;kmr5[%p&e1

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专业博彩公司利用大量信息统计出胜者和败者的概率并开出赔率xH1sSpm)I7A,xWDot。人们根据赔率决定投注哪支球队qImeZ]pQ=QVGrWP。之后博彩公司会清偿这些赌注4t]*%NjUNE3=V6hkD-

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2018年,博彩公司的赔率显然更看好巴西夺冠_[i|6HhkWK。卫冕冠军德国队排在第二,西班牙和法国紧随其后-gtc20&Z2.@M)G-XI9[

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但是今年,一些团队转向了机器学习和人工智能(AI)预测N56A-NKeiY_!_

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其中一个研究团队来自德国=-L~TJxSi*G=。多特蒙德工业大学的安德烈亚斯·格罗尔(Andreas Groll)是该团队的负责人C5fh=UoL+scFE3QGesZ

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世界杯预测:西班牙、巴西以及德国或夺冠.jpg

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格罗尔在一份关于比赛结果的报告中表示,他的团队利用计算机对整个世界杯比赛进行了10万次模拟,还通过机器学习预测每场比赛中每支球队的进球次数Y~AMJ8_KNf@9。这一预测方法结合了以往该球队实力和球员个人表现的大量信息MkNN)oOqChe[XDAhep

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那么,格罗尔的机器认为谁将夺冠?研究结果认为,西班牙夺冠的可能性最大,概率为17.8%tz[XH+C&|!。其次为德国、巴西、法国和比利时brcEK3r#nMU!&)3u

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然而,格罗尔的团队表示,西班牙未必是最后的赢家,因为这是由世界杯比赛的组织形式决定的mA]Lw8#aM)MD^^3vj

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研究人员表示,西班牙较德国的夺冠概率略高是因为后者很有可能止步四分之一决赛X2U_GN|MtaYpz|4y3De。然而,如果德国闯进四分之一决赛,那么德国队就有机会战胜西班牙队|~799u]IVc!bjp&7jC+

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在另一项通过机器学习产生的最新预测中,高盛金融公司认为,巴西将夺得2018年世界杯,而德国是最有可能(在决赛中)落败巴西的球队5aJO^dAE%![RcER-p~O@

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该公司表示,这一预测方法基于20万数据模型和100万场世界杯模拟比赛SJs(dF.@VnIzm。机器考察了各支球队和球员的能力以及过往表现OZ=Yf%_y(g9k。高盛2014年曾预测巴西会夺得世界杯,不过最终被德国捧走了世界杯7rk6H3yc,YGB.39FPB

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很多对2018年世界杯感兴趣的人肯定留意到了博彩公司和人工智能机器基于数字的预测结果Ry*yjgYDQ;l6

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不过,其他人可能会选择相信一只据说有通灵能力的猫的预测#b%IboJsDKB-Y。这只名为“阿喀琉斯”的猫生活在俄罗斯圣彼得堡的冬宫博物馆X.o=gX8woDO

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“阿喀琉斯”的正式职业是抓老鼠M!sKNqxT06]ww*#。不过,一些当地人表示,它还可以预测未来WH_A#vQzhE5|B|l)。截至目前,它只预测了一场世界杯赛事——俄罗斯和沙特的揭幕战WkEPTs^Z8MeQ!]lA2BFi。“阿喀琉斯”在两种食物容器中选中了俄罗斯国旗t1klQ^i^)+X

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这个选择对俄罗斯队来说是个“好兆头”OBgFN)7@6votllM&。虽然俄罗斯是本届世界杯的东道主,但该国球队却是32支参赛球队中排名垫底的Ph3Wc81dhmyV9

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译文为可可英语翻译,未经授权请勿转载!

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