VOA慢速英语(翻译+字幕+讲解):鹿死谁手? 美国总统大选进入冲刺阶段
日期:2016-09-12 11:30

(单词翻译:单击)

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听力文本

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U.S. Presidential Race Tightens
The U.S. Presidential election is getting closer.
The latest average of major polls shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by 3.3 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
On August 10, that same average of nine polls had Clinton up by 7.7 percentage points.
A new poll Wednesday by CNN-ORC had Trump ahead by two points -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- among likely voters.
'Bounce' is Gone
Larry Sabato is director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
He said "The tightening is natural. Sabato said it is because the "bounce" Clinton received in polls after the Democratic Party convention in July has gone.
Sabato said Clinton still leads in most of the important swing states that will decide the presidential election. Swing states are states where both Democrats and Republicans have a good chance of winning.
"There's no guarantee she (Clinton) will win, but the odds currently favor her," Sabato said.
In the United States, the candidate who wins the election is not always the one who receives the most votes.
The Electoral College Decides
The election is decided by the Electoral College. Each state has seats in the Electoral College. States with larger populations have more seats.
Trump was very happy about the new CNN poll showing him leading among likely voters. Earlier CNN polls had him losing to Clinton.
"Their big poll came out today that Trump is winning," he said. "It's good psychology. I know that for a fact, because people that didn't call me yesterday, they are calling me today. So that's the way life works, right?"
A close race might increase the importance of two minor party presidential candidates -- Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein. In the new CNN poll, 7 percent of likely voters support Johnson, 2 percent back Stein.
These low numbers for Johnson and Stein are surprising because large numbers of voters say they doubt whether Trump or Clinton would have the ability to lead the country.
Not Much Confidence
A new 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll showed these results: 55 percent of registered voters say a Clinton presidency would threaten the well-being of the United States. And 61 percent say a Trump presidency would threaten the nation's well-being.
Nate Silver heads the political website fivethirtyeight.com -- named for the number of voting seats in the Electoral College. He still thinks Clinton is leading, but he says he is less sure than before.
The reason Silver is not sure is that so many voters -- about 20 percent – are telling pollsters that they are undecided or they will vote for a minor party candidate.
Silver gives "Trump better odds of winning than most other" experts who use polls and other information to predict election results. But he said there is "also a significant chance of a Clinton landslide," or win by a very large percentage.
A close race could increase the importance of the four televised candidate debates. The three presidential debates will probably be for only Clinton and Trump without the minor candidates. The fourth, for the vice presidential candidates -- will probably be just for Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine.
The first presidential debate takes place September 26. The election is November 8.
Sabato, the University of Virginia expert, said it is possible a very good debate by one of the candidates, or a major mistake by a candidate might cause people to change their opinions.
But usually, Sabato said, voters watch debates with their opinions already settled.
I'm Bruce Alpert.

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词汇解析

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1.Presidential election 总统选举

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Neither of the front-runners in the presidential election is a mainstream politician.
总统选举中的两位领先者都不是主流政治家)Is(.UtHTdP+m7Z!yv2y

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2.come out 出版;出现

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The book comes out this week
这本书本周出版yXJZ+qqkQW6~so&[L=bu

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3.well-being 幸福;康乐

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Our sleep pattern is a barometer to our psychological well-being.
我们的睡眠模式是心理健康的晴雨表C1,L_;[O9@zK*RTYk^W

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4.presidential candidates 总统候选人

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The presidential candidates are on the stump today.
总统候选人今天在作巡回演说xe,*3^XYvc#s)K%0Ua1

内容解析

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1.Silver gives "Trump better odds of winning than most other" experts who use polls and other information to predict election results.

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election results 选举结果

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The final election results will be announced on Friday
星期五将公布最终选举结果4G&JlEDKf9Av
Critics remain puzzled by the British election results.
批评家仍然对英国大选的结果困惑不解9yP4LzRFyYKnG

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2.The first presidential debate takes place September 26.

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takes place 发生;举行

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All the action in the play takes place at one railroad station.
该剧的整个情节均发生在一座火车站里QBuUZE,w4dYA
The reaction takes place only in the presence of a catalyst.
只有在催化剂的作用下,反应才会发生fgSYTn1g85Cg[y.tx,0

参考译文

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鹿死谁手?美国总统大选进入冲刺阶段
美国总统大选日益临近vC*RsT&cIV]@Pn7
据Real Clear Politics.com网站统计,从最近几项主要民意调查的平均结果来看,民主党人希拉里领先共和党人特朗普3.3个百分点K*T=jr%T[m
8月10日,9项民意调查的平均值显示,希拉里的支持率上升至7.7个百分点Dlg4Jw*Cl%mxtb
周三,CNN-ORC出具的一项最近民意调查显示,在选民的投票结果中,特朗普以45%比43%的优势领先2个百分点dSbT|Z^Gye^R,
“反弹”不再
拉里·萨巴托是维吉尼亚大学政治中心主任S#%M9L1)jNI*sN[KGn

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美国选举进入冲刺阶段.jpg
他说:“竞选态势收紧再正常不过LQ)8~5Xl9Ay3Odyb。萨巴托表示,因为希拉里在7月份民主党大会受到的民意“反弹”效应逐渐消散FUK7vB8LYPM8
萨巴托说,希拉里仍然在多个对选举结果有决定作用且摇摆不定的州占据优势^XHsF#tQGi。摇摆不定意指民主党和共和党都有机会获胜3fIU7mn_pj%db^eG.Ft
萨巴托说:“虽无法肯定她(希拉里)能获胜,但目前的可能性更偏向她T))AXu+h~RwyYSN=-。”
有时候,赢得美国选举的候选人并不是获得选票最多的j|R0tGKZ]RA
选举人团至关重要
总统选举由选举人团决定KtA4JbJA(AvD[~3。每个州在选举人团拥有席位[T,s;U+ss-F=u*V7bZ。人口众多的州则拥有更多席位Jmu)&HJj6^VRyIPm6Fm%
CNN最近的民意调查显示特朗普选民支持率领先,特朗普对此十分满意DQM!Z_Q*FZV。之前的CNN民意调查中,他不敌希拉里K!2@tA*7u.P[n
他说,“今天重大的民意调查结果显示特朗普获胜,这一结果让人为之一振T1]%n#|jikiGxJOU)|1]。其实这种套路我再了解不过,昨天那些没有联系我的人,今天会争先恐后地联系我ZszE[ZmkEsd#IhoN。这就是社会规律,对吧?”
这场难分上下的竞选或将加剧美国自由党总统候选人加里约翰逊与绿党总统候选人吉尔斯坦对美国大选的影响程度GYN6.oC01sCOfeBn,kn。最新的CNN民意调查中,7%的选民支持约翰逊,2%的选民支持吉尔斯坦e80WEi3XMRn1zLV
约翰逊和斯坦的支持率如此之低让人惊叹,因为大批选民质疑,特朗普和希拉里是否有能力领导美国rYJNU*pfY,&bq26
没有太多信心
华盛顿邮报全美50州最新民意调查SurveyMonkey显示,55%的注册选民称希拉里当选总统将威胁美国的福祉+-8i3DKkeTc.HMl。认为特朗普任总统将威胁国家利益的选民高达61%EkRliZ;gqMcg-mDtm
纳特·西尔弗是政治网站fivethirtyeight.com的负责人——该网站名称喻指选举人团中拥有投票席位的数量q%@XtEa8n&0。他依旧认为希拉里领先,但却无法像以前那么肯定&a%d5BW4@(
让西尔弗不确定的因素包括,约20%的选民表示,他们还在观望或把票投给少数党候选人dbH+|;-K2jA98eAS
西尔弗支持那些通过调查及其他信息预测“特朗普获胜的几率最大”的专家6Q8EWeNWrZ@7_;w。但他表示,“希拉里获胜的可能性也很大,”或者以极高的支持率赢得大选%q_yW[cWIj]dG#2FcU
这场胶着的选举让四个候选人的电视辩论变得尤其重要62#k2s%MPk6tyD-7xXF。前三场总统辩论可能只有希拉里和特朗普参加qiDL-W(CCCzmhO。第四场(共和党副总统候选人)辩论,可能只有共和党潘斯和民主党蒂姆·凯恩参加daiG^]Fnp,V]99~Y
第一场总统辩论将于9月26日举行*LM0@*Pq!kC]!d*!;u。总统选举时间为11月8日VBdA7ls)j5ueTebd;E!
弗吉尼亚大学的专家萨巴托表示,对其中一位候选人来说,此次辩论可能是一次扭转局势的重要“节点”,也有可能成为导致选民倒戈的最大“败笔”]R.HS30DIyE3,pC1E;
然而萨巴托指出,通常,选民观看辩论赛之前已经决定好了去向Vii]8O0Y=endBKlC
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译文为可可英语翻译,未经授权请勿转载!

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