Will New Two-Child Policy Lift China's Economy?
China's decision to end its one-child policy is likely to affect the country's economy.
Official Chinese media reported last month that all couples will be permitted to have two children.
The change in policy is expected to create new investments and increased demand for goods and services. The move comes as China's economy is slowing. However, the change also may increase demand for higher pay and increase labor costs.
Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Chinese officials predicted that the new policy would raise economic growth by about half of one percent. They said it would provide China with about 30 million laborers by 2050.
He Weiwen is with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. He says that more children will mean "more maternity homes, hospitals, kindergartens and schools. It will certainly result in massive investment in these areas."
"The two-child policy will also lead to more spending on the second child, and thus contribute to economic growth." He added, "The families having the second child will reduce their savings to meet the new requirement."
The policy limiting families to one child began more than 30 years ago. When the new policy goes into effect, 91-million couples will have official permission for a second child. The government expects that at least 60 percent of parents having two children will come from rural areas.
Limited health care and educational centers in rural areas and small cities have long been a problem in China. The government will have to make new investments in these areas to provide quality centers for families with two children.
The Conference Board, a U.S.-based research group, says there are both good and bad effects that might result from the two-child policy.
The group says, "An increase in the number of children could have a positive impact on the consumption of products and services catering towards child rearing." It adds, "this could lead to growth and employment demand in those industries."
But the Conference Board also warned of the effects of rising labor costs, and greater pressure on aging grandparents. These men and women are often forced to take care of the young children of working mothers and fathers.
The main purpose of permitting two children in each family is to deal with the aging of China's population and shrinking workforce.
I'm Mario Ritter.
1.increased demand 需求增长；扩大需求
The increased demand for money comes from a number of sources.
2.labor costs 劳动力成本
The new approach, of course, is to reduce labor costs and problems.
3.go into effect 开始生效
The standard is slated to go into effect next year.
4.deal with 处理；涉及
Do you know how to deal with this problem?
1.Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Chinese officials predicted that the new policy would raise economic growth by about half of one percent. They said it would provide China with about 30 million laborers by 2050.
half of 一半；二分之一
He always deposits half of his salary in the bank.
He anted up his half of the bill.
2.He Weiwen is with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. He says that more children will mean "more maternity homes, hospitals, kindergartens and schools. It will certainly result in massive investment in these areas."
result in 导致；引起
Protein malnutrition may result in a number of other adverse effect.
Prolonged exposure to these pollutants may result in chronic disease.
这一政策转变有望开创新的投资领域，扩大对商品以及服务的需求 。此项政策的出台正值中国经济放缓之时 。因此，这一新政策也可能会引起薪水上调，劳动力成本上涨 。
周二，在举行的新闻发布会上，相关人士预测这一新政策将会使经济增长约0.5% 。他们还表示，到2050年，中国将会产生3千万左右的劳动力 。
何伟文是北京中国人民大学重阳金融研究院的教授 。他表示孩子越多也就意味着产房、医院、幼儿园和学校的需求量越大，这一现象肯定会掀起这些领域的暴风投资 。
他还补充道，“二胎政策也意味着第二个孩子所带来的消费需求，从而促进经济的增长 。养育二胎的家庭需要大量的开支及消费 。”
三十多年前，中国开始实施独生子女政策 。新的生育政策施行之后，将会有9100万对夫妇可生育二胎 。据政府估计农村地区生育二胎的家庭至少占60% 。
在中国，一些农村地区及小城镇的医疗和教育问题一直是政府的心头之患 。而现在，政府需要在这些地区开发新的投资领域，为生育二胎的家庭提供健全的医疗服务以及教育资源 。
该机构表示，“儿童数量增加会对育儿领域的产品和服务消费产生积极影响 。此外，这也可能会导致新的企业出现并拉动就业需求 。”
然而，该机构还提出劳动力成本上升以及老龄化人群面临的更大压力等问题 。忙于工作的年轻夫妇通常把孩子留给老人们照顾 。