关于生育的讨论
日期:2019-08-14 17:00

(单词翻译:单击)

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I'm an exhausted dad. Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators,
我是一个精疲力尽的老父亲。目前为两个小独裁者所有,
who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.
受其支配,他们对我实行铁腕统治,尽管还穿着尿不湿。
Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately,
或许是因为最近一直和小孩子待在一起,
I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.
我对于一个话题格外关注。
It seems around the world, in developed countries, people are having fewer babies.
看起来在全球所有发达国家,人们都在减少生育。
From North America to Europe to China to Japan, there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates.
从北美到欧洲,从中国到日本,出生率确实呈现连续下降的趋势。
In fact, over the past 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved.
事实上,在过去的50年里,全球的生育率下降了一半。
What the heck is going on?
到底发生了什么?
Now, my friends who don't want kids, all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.
我身边不想生孩子的朋友都把气候变化说成是不要孩子的原因。
And many of you are sitting there right now, saying,
在座的很多人现在肯定想说:
"Waj, there's also overpopulation, there's also high birth rates, which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries,
“嘿,人口过剩问题以及在很多非洲和中东国家仍然有高生育率,
there's also orphan kids who still need parents, there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone,
而且还有孤儿需要养父母,总体资源仍然处于不足,
and oh, by the way, we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet."
啊顺便说一句,我们正面临严重的碳排放问题,它正在毁灭地球。”
I hear you, I hear you. And yet, despite all this chaos, I still think we should have babies.
我听到了,都听到了。但是尽管有这些声音,我还是认为我们应该生孩子。
I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity, side by side.
我相信我们可以,且应当,为地球、为人类,并肩作战。
Now, if I could take it personal for a second, I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies.
此刻,如果允许我暂时以己度人,我能理解为什么有些人对于要孩子持怀疑态度。
Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids. Young, happy, fresh.
这里有张照片,是我和我太太有孩子之前拍的。年轻,快乐,有活力。
Here's a photo of me after having kids. A broken, defeated husk of a man.
这一张照片是有孩子后的我。一名憔悴落魄的老父亲。
Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult. A Porsche.
这是我以为作为一名成年人我会开的车,一辆保时捷。
Here's what I actually drive. A Honda Odyssey minivan.
这是我现实里的车,本田奥德赛家用车。
For the minivan. Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space, and good mileage, good mileage.
说到家用车,现在我只在意舒适的空间,还有低油耗,还省油哦。
Now, I just want to stress that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats of global warming and climate change.
在这里我想要强调,我完全了解全球变暖和气候变化带来的巨大而可怕的风险。
I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.
我只是想说明选择生孩子是一个非常认真而深刻的个人选择。
And that many who want to are unable. But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.
但很多人的选择其实身不由己。不过今天在这里,我们来看看问题的另一面。
At how not having enough new people is going to be a major problem moving forward.
新生人口不足将如何成为影响进步的主要问题。
According to the World Health Organization,
根据世界卫生组织的数据,
we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation.
基于当前人口,每位女性平均需要生育2.1个子女才能保证有足够的人口完成代际更替。
A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years -- yeah, it might be underpopulation.
很多人认为在100年内人口过剩将成为问题,但事实上,问题可能是人口稀缺。
So a question: what happens if that number dips below 2.1?
那么问题来了:如果女性人均生育数低于2.1会怎样?
There's going to be a domino effect.
这会引发一场多米诺效应。
As all of us get older, and live longer, there's going to be a shrinking younger population,
当所有人年龄逐步增加,平均寿命延长,青年人口数量将不断减少,
which is going to lead to rising labor shortages in the world's biggest economies.
这会导致劳动力短缺,尤其是在世界几大经济体国家。
I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.
比如说美国、中国、日本、德国。
Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue.
青年工作人口减少意味着税收减少。
Less tax revenue means less money and resources to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon.
税收减少意味着更少的钱和资源来用于我们都将赖以生存的社会保障工程。
I'm talking about pensions and health care. It seems every generation is indeed connected.
也就是养老金和医疗保险。看起来每一代人其实都息息相关。
But how the heck did we get here in the first place?
但我们一开始是怎么会走到这条路上的呢?
Well, in some cases, it was intentional. Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.
在某些情况下,这是人为造成的。让我们跟着这辆德罗宁车回到更简单的时代。
Let's stop in China. Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
停下看看中国的情况。在迪斯科衰败和帝国反击战之间的1980年代。
In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy,
1980年,中国决定实施独生子女政策,
largely limiting most parents to having just one kid to combat overpopulation.
限制了大多数夫妻只能生育一个孩子以抑制人口过剩问题。
Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.
来看看当时中国的一些宣传画报,很漂亮。
Now, fast-forward to 2019. Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015, China's birth rates have largely declined.
现在,我们快进到2019年。尽管在2015年中国停止了计划生育,生育率仍然有显著下降。
In fact, the falling population in China is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people.
事实上,中国的人口下降正在削弱其发展的最大推动力--人口。
If trends continue, China's population is actually going to peak in 2029, before entering "unstoppable decline."
如果这个趋势继续下去,中国的人口将在2029年达到顶峰,然后就开始进入“无法阻止的下降”。
China's government is so freaked out right now that it's actually doing new propaganda
中国政府现在对此非常担忧,并制作了新的宣传政策,
it's begging couples to have children for the country.
鼓励夫妻们为了国家而生孩子。
Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan, home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
再来看看日本的情况,那是我爱的本田奥德赛家用车的故乡。
Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones.
日本目前的成人纸尿裤产量已经高于婴儿纸尿裤。
The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.
日本的儿童数量已经连续37年呈现下降趋势。
And unlike other countries, it has not been able to replace its population numbers through immigrant workers.
不同于其他国家,日本还无法通过外来移民工作者实现人口数量更替。
There will be labor shortages and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs.
日本将面临劳动力短缺,将没有足够的钱维持社会保障工程。
Now, Japan has introduced two solutions. First, a financial incentive.
现在日本开始引入两种解决方案。第一是经济激励。
Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies,
日本一些地方政府向生育的夫妻提供经济补贴,
with the money increasing with each additional child being born.
生的越多补贴越多。
This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama.
这种方法2014年在Ama镇产生了效果,
It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8. But it did not gain traction across Japan.
当年该地的女性人均生育数从1.66上升到了1.8。但纵观日本全国这一方法并未取得显著效果。
In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack.
2018年,日本执政党的一位领导人尝试了新方法。
He told young people, "You're selfish for not having babies."
他告诉年轻人,“你们不生孩子是非常自私的行为。”
Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac. Surprise, I know, surprise. Who would have thought?
令人震惊的是,羞辱并没有产生激励作用。太震惊了,我知道,谁能想到会这样呢?
Let's take the DeLorean to Europe, the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
现在再把目光移到欧洲,芝士的故乡,我喜欢吃,就是不会读。
The UK and much of Western Europe has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman,
英国和西欧的一些国家女性人均生育数大约在1.7左右,
which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45.
这至少比匈牙利的1.45要好一些。
Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids.
现在匈牙利首相维克托·欧尔班正推行一种新政以激励人们生孩子。
He said families where the women have four or more kids will no longer pay income tax. Pretty good, right, pretty good.
他宣布育有四名或更多孩子的女性所在家庭,可以永久不用缴纳所得税。很棒对不对?

关于生育的讨论

At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal,
再怎么说也比俄罗斯2007年的提案好多了,
which once offered women in a particular region the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.
当时在俄罗斯某个特定区域,生育多的女性会被奖励一台冰箱。
Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work. But hold on, pump the brakes.
好吧,这个政策也没有什么效果。但别着急,我们言归正传。
Orban is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit the population of Muslims and people of color.
欧尔班一开始提出这个提案的目的是想限制穆斯林和有色人种的人口数量。
He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color has to be "mixed with those of others." Subtle.
他表示他不认为匈牙利的传统、文化和肤色一定要“和其他民族进行融合”。这很微妙。
Unfortunately for Orban, and much of the EU, the birth rates are not high enough right now to be replenished without immigration.
很不幸,无论是匈牙利还是多数欧盟国家,就目前的生育率而言,都无法在没有移民人口的情况下实现代际更替。
Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline.
纵观欧盟各国都呈现人口下降趋势。
So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim. Just saying.
所以在欧洲,棕色皮肤和穆斯林将是大势所趋。我只是说说而已。
The question remains: Why aren't people having enough kids? Why is the birth rate declining in these countries?
那么还是这个问题:为什么儿童人口数不足?为什么这些国家的生育率在降低?
In some cases, it's because women are more literate, more educated.
在有些国家,这是由于女性的受教育程度较以前更高了。
They have more economic opportunities -- applaud. All good things, all good things, yes.
她们在经济上有了更多的机会--为她们喝彩。没错,这都是好的现象。
In India, this has been fantastic, it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
印度的情况则非常神奇,生育率确实下降了,但仍然保持在神奇的2.1之上。
Women also have more access to birth control, more control over their reproductive lives, all good things.
女性对计划生育有了更多的控制,对育龄也有了更多的掌控。这都是很棒的变化。
But in the United States, in particular,
但是在另一些区域,尤其是美国,
a lot of young people are opting out of having kids, largely cite the same reason: financial concerns.
很多年轻人拒绝生育给出的都是同一个原因:经济上的考量。
Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America, where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017.
我们一起来到我的故乡,美国,2017年美国生育率达到历史新低。
The United States is the most expensive country in the world to give birth.
在全世界范围内,美国是生育花费最高的一个国家。
If you do not have insurance, it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby, if everything goes perfectly.
如果你没有保险,生一个孩子大概要花3.2万美元(约22万人民币),这还是在一切顺利的理想情况下。
That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
这差不多能买一辆新的本田奥德赛了好嘛!
So, congratulations, you just had a baby, but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what?
那么,恭喜你,假如你刚刚生了一个孩子,但这个孩子的经济生产力为0,而且你知道吗?
The United States is the only industrialized country in the world that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave.
美国是世界上唯一一个不强制执行带薪产假的工业国家。
"Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely. Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!"
“年轻的母亲,恭喜你刚生了个孩子,真可爱,快回去工作,否则你就要被辞退了!”
My wife and I, both working parents, pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
我和我太太都是全职工作者,在弗吉尼亚州每月找人看孩子大约要花3500美元。
If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year.
算算看,一年就是4万美元(约27.5万人民币)。
That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK. I have one, I do not need 10.
这简直可以买一辆全新高配的本田奥德赛了啊!我有一辆了,不需要再买十辆了。
So here's my bold suggestion. Let's make it easier for people to have babies.
所以这是我大胆的建议。让生养孩子更容易一些吧。
It seems in order to invest in our future,
看起来为了将来,
we actually have to invest in the present and help those people who want to become parents.
我们现在就要开始努力,帮助那些希望为人父母的夫妻。
Give them affordable health care, give them affordable childcare, give them paid parental leave.
为他们提供能承受的医疗保险,为他们提供合适的儿童保育,为他们提供带薪产假。
Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates. Why?
2017年,法国生育率在欧盟居于首位。为什么会这样?
Largely due to its pronatal policies that actually kept women in the workforce.
很大程度上是因为其生育政策对职业女性的保护。
I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave.
包括有补贴的儿童托管及带薪育儿假。
China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up and proposing such policies. This is great.
感谢上帝,中国和日本终于也醒悟了,开始推行类似的政策。这真是太棒了。
That being said, I know some of you have listened to me
我知道你们很多人听我说了这么多,
and you still think the best investment we can make in the future is not having babies.
还是觉得我们能对未来进行的最好投资就是不生孩子。
I respect that. I get where you're coming from.
我尊重你们的选择。我知道你们为什么会这么想。
And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies but you are terrified about the future.
我也知道在座的很多人想要生孩子,但你们对未来充满恐惧。
And as a parent, I feel you. I'm scared about the future.
作为一个父亲,我感同身受。我对未来感到害怕。
I wrote that last line a month ago. But it really hit home three days ago for me, while I was at TED.
一个月前我写下了这句话。但是三天前的一件事才是直击要害,当时我正在TED。
Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying. I pick it up in my hotel room.
三天前,我的妻子哭着给我打电话,我在酒店房间里接到电话。
And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital."
她说,“我正在医院打电话。”
We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,
我们的小女儿Nusayba,
who was named after a warrior princess, to the hospital, because she found a bump on the stomach.
得名于一位勇敢的公主,因为胃里有个肿块而被送到医院。
We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver.
检查结果显示她的肝脏中有很多肿块。
Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.
今天早上,我们得知她已经是肝癌四期。
It has been a challenging week. It has been a challenging week.
这一周对我来说太挑战了。太挑战了。
And if I may, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the TED staff,
如果可以,我想占用一点时间,感谢TED的所有工作人员,
everyone, top-down, everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread.
上上下下每个人,幕后的、绿幕室的、以及其他演讲者。
On behalf of my family, my wife, and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this
我谨代表我的家庭、我的太太,以及父母--我来自巴基斯坦的父母让我一定要说:
thank you for just being decent and kind this week. So thank you.
谢谢你们在这一周对我的友好和善意,真的非常感谢。
These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
这是我的挚爱,我的宝贝Ibrahim和Nusayba。
I talked to my wife, and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead, we both concluded that we regret nothing.
我和我太太聊过,尽管有这样可怕的消息和接下来的一场苦战,我们都觉得毫不后悔。
Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made.
觉得要孩子是我们一生中做过最好的决定。
Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy,
我们的孩子带给我们和这个世界如此多的快乐,
and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk.
生孩子确实是一场冒险,但人生就是一场冒险。
And yes, I hope you've been paying attention,
是的,我希望你们都已经注意到,
we need to invest in babies in developed countries if we want to help save our economy and pensions.
在发达国家我们需要有更高的生育率以促进或是拯救经济和社会保障体系。
But that's not the reason you have babies. That's not the main reason.
但这不是你们生育的原因。至少不是主要的原因。
Babies have always represented humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.
孩子总是能代表人性中最美好、最迷人的无限可能性。
And if we in developed countries, as a whole, opt out,
如果身处发达国家的我们,从整体上选择拒绝,
and don't invest in present and future generations, then what the hell's the point?
对这一代和下一代不抱有希望,那人生还有什么意义?
What's the point of being on this absurd journey together?
这荒谬的人生还有什么意义?
And so, for those who can and who choose to, for those who can and who choose to have kids,
那么对于那些有能力的人,那么对于那些有能力并选择生育的人,
may you pass on this beautiful thing called life, with kindness, generosity, decency and love. Thank you.
愿你们传承这名为生命的美好之物,心怀善良、宽容、体面与爱。谢谢。

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