TED十佳演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(4)
日期:2019-08-08 16:54

(单词翻译:单击)

演讲文本
Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else.
简短地谈一下发明创造的周期,周期发展时会衍生许多活动,当这些活动被其他活动取代,此周期就灭亡了。
These things tend to happen every 25 years. 40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technologies.
这样的周期每25年出现一次。持续40年的时间,有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点放至不同的科技。
The interesting thing -- by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
这有趣的事情-- 顺便一提,这里的速度,不好意思,高速旅行是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
Here's the biggie, and that is, you don't have innovation cycles if the government develops and the government uses it.
这是件大事,那就是,你没有发明创造周期,如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net. Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
你知道,一个好的例子,当然就是DARPA网。电脑首先应用于炮兵部队,然后是美国国税局(IRS)。
But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity, all the benefit from it.
但当我们得到它时,现在你拥有所有活动的级别,所有由它而来的利益。
Private sector has to do it. Keep that in mind. I put down innovation -- I've looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
私营部门不得不这么做。记住它。我提出发明创新-- 我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期,但我什么也没发现。
The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space, and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned space flights in the world -- the very first year.
在最初的那一年,从加加林和和几周后阿兰·谢巴德进入太空开始,世界上有五次人造飞船航行;在最初的那一年。
In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed. There were only three or four flights in 2003.
2003年,美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。2003年只有三或四次飞行。
In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights to the international manned station.
2004年,只有两次飞行:两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行至国际空间站。

伯特·鲁坦:预见太空未来(4).png

And I had to fly three in Mojave with my little group of a couple dozen people in order to get to a total of five,
而我不得不和我的两队人马一起在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次,为了达到5次飞行的总数,
which was the number the same year back in 1961. There is no growth. There's no activity. There's no nothing.
这是1961年的数字。 没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne. This is a picture here taken from orbit.
这张照片取自一号太空飞船。这张照片取自轨道。
Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
我们的目标是拍下这些照片,这样大家就能看到它,真正地喜欢它。
We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough -- at least as safe as the early airlines -- so that can be done.
我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片,非常安全地做这件事-- 至少像早期的航线一样安全--所以可以做。
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage to go out and try that as a small company.
我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气尝试飞到太空,我们是个小公司。

视频及简介

演讲简介
在这篇热情洋溢的演讲中,传奇的宇宙飞船设计者伯特·鲁坦鞭笞美国停滞政府资助的空间探索项目,并呼吁企业家重拾这个美国国家宇航局中断的项目。


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