I want to argue to you that in fact, politics and religion,
我想要论证的观点是，事实上，政治和宗教，
which are the two primary factors -- not the sole, but overwhelmingly, the primary factors
是两种主要因素并不是惟一的，但是绝大多数时候，
which are driving towards a war which looks extremely likely bordering on the inevitable at this point,
是把我们推向一个战争的边缘，可以说是到了一触即发的地步的主要因素。
whether one is in favor of that or not -- that politics and religion are, in fact, themselves better conceptualized as kinds of technology,
不管你是否喜欢这个说法--政治和宗教，本质上都可以被理解为是一种技术，
and subject to kinds of questions that we regularly consider in the space of conceptual design.
我们可以以概念设计的方式去看待他们。
Here's what I mean. Politics and -- let's focus on the political system in particular question here, which is the system of democracy.
我是说。政治--我们通过一个具体问题来着重讨论政治制度，也就是民主政治。
Democracy, as a type of politics, is a technology for the control and deployment of power.
民主，作为政治的一种，是一项为了控制和使用权力的技术。
You can deploy power in a wide range of ways.
你可以通过多种方式来使用权力。
The famous ones -- despotism is a good one;
人所共知的有独裁统治；
anarchy is a way to not deploy the power in any organized way, to do it in a radically diffused fashion;
无政府状态是一种权力运用缺乏组织、散漫无章的状态；
and democracy is a set of technologies, which have the effect of, in principle,
而民主则是一套科技，原则上要达到的效果是：
diffusing the power source to a large number of people and then re-concentrating it in a smaller group of people who govern,
把权力来源分散到大众，再重新集合到负责管治的少数人，
and who themselves are, in principle, authorized to govern by virtue of what the broader public has done.
而他们原则上是凭借大众所作的选择，而被授权去管治。
Now, consider religion -- in this case Islam,
现在我们来看宗教--比如说伊斯兰教，
which is the religion that, in some direct sense, can be said to be precipitating what we're about to enter.
可以说是一手造成我们将要面临的处境的宗教。
Let me say parenthetically why I think that's the case, because I think it's a potentially controversial statement.
这可以是很有争议性的说法，所以让我顺带解释一下。
I would put it in the following equation: no 9/11, no war.
一言敝之：没有9/11，就没有战争；
At the beginning of the Bush administration, when President Bush, now President Bush, was running for president,
在布什上台之初，当布什总统还在竞选的时候，
he made it very clear that he was not interested in intervening broadly in the world.
他明确的表示他没有兴趣在世界舞台上大展拳脚。
In fact, the trend was for disengagement with the rest of the world.
事实上，当时的大势是要撤离国际上的参与。
That's why we heard about the backing away from the Kyoto protocol, for example.
我们在京都议定书问题上退下来就是一例。
After 9/11, the tables were turned.
9/11之后，形势改变了。
And the president decided, with his advisors, to undertake some kind of an active intervention in the world around us.
总统和他的幕僚决定，在国际上要采取主动。
That began with Afghanistan, and when Afghanistan went extremely smoothly and quickly,
行动由阿富汗开始，当在阿富汗的任务进行得那么顺利快速，
a decision was made through the technology of democracy -- again, notice, not a perfect technology
在民主的技术机制下--请留意，那不是完美的机制，
but through the technology of democracy that this administration was going to push in the direction of another war -- this time, a war in Iraq.
但是通过民主的技术机制--这个政府决定开始推展另一场战争，这次战场在伊拉克。
Now, the reason I begin by saying "no 9/11, no war" is that we have to acknowledge that Islam,
我之所以说：没有9/11，就没有战争，是因为我们要认识到，伊斯兰教
as interpreted by a very, very small, extremely radical group of people, was a precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks
在一群很少数、很极端的人演绎之下，成为了9/11袭击的决定性导因，
the precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks -- and as a consequence, at one degree of remove,
它是9/11袭击的决定性导因，随着事情的发展，
the precipitating cause of the coming war that we're about to be engaged in.
它也是我们将要面临的战争的决定性导因。
And I would add that bin Laden and his followers are consciously devoted to the goal of creating a conflict between democracy,
我要注明，拉登和他的追随者，刻意制造民主--
or at least capitalist democracy, on the one hand, and the world of Islam as they see and define it.
至少是资本主义民主和他们眼中的伊斯兰世界的矛盾。
Now, how is Islam a technology in this conceptual apparatus?
好了，伊斯兰教在这个概念上又是那一门的技术呢？
Well, it's a technology for, first, salvation in its most basic sense.
首先，它的根本性是救赎的机制。
It's meant to be a mechanism for construing the universe in a way that will bring about the salvation of the individual believer,
它的原意是演绎宇宙的一种方式，让信徒从而获得救赎，
but it's also meant by the Islamists -- and I use that term to mean people who believe that Islam they follow the slogan,
但对信奉伊斯兰教的伊斯兰信徒--我用这个术语来指那些信仰伊斯兰的人--来讲，
Islam is the answer to a wide range of questions, whether they're social, or political, or personal, or spiritual.
伊斯兰能解答各种问题，无论是社会的、政治的、个人的或灵性的。
Within the sphere of people who have that view,
持有这一观点的人，
and it's a large number of people in the Muslim world who disagree with bin Laden in his application, but agree that Islam is the answer.
是穆斯林世界的大部分人，他们虽然不同意拉登的手法，却同意在伊斯兰能找到答案。
Islam represents a way of engaging the world through which one can achieve certain desirable goals.
伊斯兰代表一种处世之道，它能让人达到一些高尚的目标。
And the goals from the perspective of Muslims are, in principle, peace, justice and equality,
用穆斯林信徒的角度，和平、公义和平等原则上都是他们所追求的，
but on terms that correspond to traditional Muslim teachings.
但是要根据传统穆斯林教化而诠释。
Now, I don't want to leave a misimpression by identifying either of these propositions
好了，请不要误会，我指出这两个提议，
rather, either of these phenomena, democracy or Islam -- as technologies.
应该说是这两个现象：民主和伊斯兰，都是技术。
I don't want to suggest that they are a single thing that you can point to.
我并不是要表示它们是同一样的实物。
And I think a good way to prove this is simply to demonstrate to you
我认为向你们解释这很容易的一个好方法，
what my thought process was when deciding what to put on the wall behind me when I spoke.
就是我在演讲时，在后面的墙上应放些什么。
And I ran immediately into a conceptual problem: you can't show a picture of democracy.
我立即遇到一个概念问题，你不能用图片表达民主。
You can show a slogan, or a symbol, or a sign that stands for democracy.
你可以展示口号，或者一个符号，或一个代表民主的标志。
You can show the Capitol -- I had the same problem when I was designing the cover of my forthcoming book, in fact
你可以展示美国国会大厦，当我设计我的新书封面时也遇到同样的问题，
what do you put on the cover to show democracy?
用什么图像来表达民主呢？
And the same problem with respect to Islam.
对伊斯兰也有同样的问题。
You can show a mosque, or you can show worshippers, but there's not a straightforward way of depicting Islam.
你可以用清真寺或朝拜者，但却没有一个直接描绘伊斯兰的方法。
That's because these are the kinds of concepts that are not susceptible to easy representation.
因为这些都是很难表达的概念。
Now, it follows from that, that they're deeply contestable.
因此，它们是非常具有争议性的。
It follows from that that all of the people in the world who say that they are Muslims can,
因此，世界上所有声称自己是穆斯林的人，
in principle, subscribe to a wide range of different interpretations of what Islam really is, and the same is true of democracy.
原则上都对伊斯兰教持有不同的观点。对于民主也是这样。
In other words, unlike the word hope, which one could look up in a dictionary and derive origins for,
换句话说，和“希望”这个词不同，我们可以查阅字典追溯根源，
and, perhaps, reach some kind of a consensual use analysis, these are essentially contested concepts.
或能找到某种公认的用法，这两样概念本质上是争议性的。
They're ideas about which people disagree in the deepest possible sense.
它们是人们在最深层次上的分歧。
And as a consequence of this disagreement, it's very, very difficult for anyone to say, "I have the right version of Islam."
这种分歧的结果是任何人都说不出，“我知道伊斯兰教的正确含义。”
You know, post-9/11, we were treated to the amazing phenomenon of George W. Bush saying, "Islam means peace."
你知道，9/11以后，我们面对的是这样奇怪的现象，乔治·W·布什说，“伊斯兰教意味着和平。”
Well, so says George W. Bush. Other people would say it means something else.
好吧，那是布什的看法。其他人可能会说伊斯兰教是其他的东西。
Some people would say that Islam means submission.
有些人可能说伊斯兰教意味着服从。
Other people would say it means an acknowledgement or recognition of God's sovereignty.
有些人可能说伊斯兰教意味着感谢或者神的主权的认知。
There are a wide range of different things that Islam can mean.
对于伊斯兰教的理解可以是五花八门。
And ostensibly, the same is true of democracy. Some people say that democracy consists basically in elections.
表面上看，民主也是一样。有些人认为民主就是各种选举。
Other people say no, that's not enough, there have to be basic liberal rights: free speech, free press, equality of citizens.
其他人说不对，这还不够，必须有最基本的自由权利：演讲自由，舆论自由，公民平等。
These are contested points, and it's impossible to answer them by saying,
这些就是争议之处，而且我们也不可能这样回答，
"Ah ha, I looked in the right place, and I found out what these concepts mean."
“啊哈，我已经查过了，我知道了这些概念究竟是什么意思。”
Now, if Islam and democracy are at present in a moment of great confrontation, what does that mean?
那么，如果伊斯兰教和民主都在现场，在终极对峙的时刻，那意味着什么？
Well, you could fit it into a range of different interpretative frameworks.
你可以将其放入一系列不同的框架中去理解。
You could begin with the one that we began with a couple of days ago, which was fear.
你可以从我们前几天开始讨论的问题开始，那就是恐惧。
Fear is not an implausible reaction with a war just around the corner
如果战争在一触即发之际，恐惧并非一种不可思议的反应，
and with a very, very high likelihood that many, many people are going to die as a consequence of this confrontation
有很多人很可能因此送命，由于这次对决--
a confrontation which many, many people in the Muslim world do not want,
这种许多穆斯林世界中的人不希望看到的对决，
many, many people in the American democracy do not want, many people elsewhere in the world do not want,
许多怀有美国式民主情节的人不希望看到的，许多其他世界各地的人不希望看到的对决，
but which nonetheless is favored by a large enough number of people
但是，这也是有相当多的人所希望看到的，
at least in the relevant space, which is the United States -- to actually go forward.
至少在利害相关的地区，也就是美国--认为应该进行的。
So fear is not a crazy response at all. And I think that that's, in fact, probably the first appropriate response.
因此恐惧根本不是一种疯狂的反应。我认为，实际上，可能是第一个合理的反应。
What I want to suggest to you, though, in the next couple of minutes is that there's also a hopeful response to this.
然而，在接下来的几分钟内，我想向你提出的是，其实是有一种反应可以使人满怀希望的。
And the hopeful response derives from recognizing that Islam and democracy are technologies.
这种反应来源于认识到伊斯兰教和民主都是一种技术。
And by virtue of being technologies, they're manipulable.
而且因为它们是种技术，它们是可操作的。
And they're manipulable in ways that can produce some extremely positive outcomes.
而且它们可以以一种能产生极端正面影响的方式被操作。
What do I have in mind? Well, all over the Muslim world there are people who take Islam deeply seriously, people who care about Islam,
我想到了什么呢？在穆斯林世界有这样一批人，他们十分严肃的看待伊斯兰教，关心伊斯兰教，
for whom it's a source either of faith, or of civilization, or of deep values, or just a source of powerful personal identity,
对于它们来说伊斯兰教是一种信仰、文化或者深刻价值观的本源，或者仅仅是一种强有力的、个人身份的来源，
who think and are saying loudly that Islam and democracy are in fact not in conflict, but are in fact deeply compatible.
他们认为并且大声宣称伊斯兰教和民主事实上是不存在冲突的，而且在深层次兼容。

And these Muslims -- and it's the vast majority of Muslims -- disagree profoundly with bin Laden's approach, profoundly.
而且这些穆斯林--他们占据了绝大多数的比例，完全不同意本拉登的方式，完全不同意。
And they furthermore think overwhelmingly -- again one can't speak of every person,
而且他们十分强烈的认为--虽然不能代每一个人说话，
but overwhelmingly, and one can find this by reading any of the sources that they have produced,
但是十分强烈的，我们可以发现这一点，通过搜寻他们出版的任何资源，
and they're all over the Internet and in all sorts of languages
这些资源遍布因特网，用各种不同的语言写成，
one can see that they're saying that their concern in their own countries is primarily to free up themselves
宣扬他们的想法，他们所关注的，是在各自国家怎样解放自己，
to have choice in the spheres of personal life, in the sphere of economics, in the sphere of politics,
在个人生活上、经济上、政治上怎样有所选择，
and, yes, in the sphere of religion, which is itself closely regulated in most of the Muslim world.
是的，甚至在宗教领域，这一点在穆斯林世界被十分严格的管理着。
And many of these Muslims further say that their disagreement with the United States is that it, in the past and still in the present,
而且这其中有许多穆斯林教徒进一步表达了他们反对美国（的做法），也就是过去和目前仍存在的，
has sided with autocratic rulers in the Muslim world in order to promote America's short-term interests.
支持穆斯林世界独裁者的统治，以推进美国的短期利益。
Now, during the Cold War, that may have been a defensible position for the United States to take. That's an academic question.
那么，在冷战期间，也许可以说是美国采取一种防御的态度。那是属于专业化的问题。
It may be that there was a great war to be fought between West and East, and it was necessary on the axis of democracy against communism.
也许是因为东西方之间可能会发生一场大的冲突，用民主的本质来对抗共产主义是必须的。
And it was necessary in some way for these to contradict each other, and as a consequence you have to make friends wherever you can get them.
在某种程度上出现相互矛盾的情况也是不可避免的，结果就是你要尽可能的广交朋友。
But now that the Cold War is over, there's nearly universal consensus in the Muslim world -- and pretty close to the same here in the United States,
但是现在冷战已经结束，穆斯林世界几乎达成了一致--美国国内也差不多同样达成一致，
if you talk to people and ask them -- that in principle, there's no reason that democracy and Islam cannot co-exist.
如果你问他们--本质上，民主和伊斯兰教没有理由不能够共存。
And we see this among activist, practical Muslims, like the Muslims who are presently the elected, parliamentary, democratic government of Turkey,
我们可以见到活跃的、实事求是的穆斯林教徒，比如刚刚当选的土耳其穆斯林政府，他们的国家有民选的国会和民主政府，
who are behaving pragmatically, not ideologically, who are promoting their own religious values,
他们奉行实用主义而非理想主义，推行自己的宗教观念，
who are elected by their own people because they were perceived as honest and sincere because of their religious values,
他们凭着自己的诚实和诚恳，凭着他们的宗教价值，由自己的人民选出来，
but who do not think that Islam and a democratic system of governance are fundamentally incompatible.
但是他们并不认为伊斯兰教和民主制度有着根本的矛盾。
Now, you may say, but surely, what we've seen on television about Saudi Islam
那么，你可能会说，但是毫无疑问的是，我们在电视上看到沙特的伊斯兰教，
convinces us that it can't possibly be compatible with what we consider the core of democracy
坚决认为他们的价值观同我们认同的民主核心价值是不可共存的，
namely, free political choice, basic liberty and basic equality.
也就是，自由政治权利，基本自由和基本平等。
But I'm here to tell you that technologies are more malleable than that.
但是我今天想向大家说明，技术机制的延展性是很高的，
I'm here to tell you that many, many Muslims believe -- the vast majority, in fact
我想告诉你，许多许多的穆斯林们认为-- 实际上是绝大多数--
in fact I think I would go so far as to say that many Muslims in Saudi Arabia believe that the core values of Islam,
事实上我可以说在沙特阿拉伯的许多穆斯林，认为伊斯兰教的核心价值观，
namely acknowledgement of God's sovereignty and basic human equality before God,
也就是对神的主权的承认，神面前人人平等的基本权利，
are themselves compatible with liberty, equality and free political choice.
这和自由、平等以及自由政治选举本身上是同出一辙的。
And there are Muslims, many Muslims out there, who are saying precisely this.
许多的穆斯林，许多穆斯林确确实实是这样说的。
And they're making this argument wherever they're permitted to make it.
只要情况允许，他们总会竭尽所能的宣传这种观点。
But their governments, needless to say, are relatively threatened by this.
但是他们的政府，不用说，被这种观点所威胁。
And for the most part try to stop them from making this argument.
而且尽可能的去阻止这种宣传活动的发生。
So, for example, a group of young activists in Egypt try to form a party known as the Center Party,
比如，埃及的一群青年活跃分子，打算组建一个叫做“Center Party”（中心党）的政党，
which advocated the compatibility of Islam and democracy.
其宗旨是推进伊斯兰教与民主政治的和谐。
They weren't even allowed to form a party.
但是他们甚至不能得到许可。
They were actually blocked from even forming a party under the political system there.
在当地的政治制度下，他们甚至连组建一个政党都不可以。
Why? Because they would have done extraordinarily well.
为什么？因为他们一定会取得很大的成功。
In the most recent elections in the Muslim world -- which are those in Pakistan, those in Morocco and those in Turkey
在穆斯林世界的最近几次选举中--在巴基斯坦、在摩洛哥、在土耳其，
in each case, people who present themselves to the electorate as Islamic democrats
每一次，那些走伊斯兰民主派路线的候选人，
were far and away the most successful vote-getters every place they were allowed to run freely.
在每一处他们能自由参选的地方，都吸去了大量的选票，远远抛开了对手。
So in Morocco, for example, they finished third in the political race but they were only allowed to contest half the seats.
比如在摩洛哥，他们在政治竞选中名列第三，但他们只被允许竞争半数席位。
So had they contested a larger number of the seats, they would have done even better.
所以如果他们可以竞争更多的席位，他们可以做的更好。
Now what I want to suggest to you is that the reason for hope in this case is that we are on the edge of a real transformation in the Muslim world.
那么我要向大家表明的是，这种例子给我们一种希望，那就是我们将要面临穆斯林世界的一个真实的大转变。
And that's a transformation in which many sincerely believing Muslims
在这场变革中，那些诚挚的穆斯林们，
who care very, very deeply about their traditions, who do not want to compromise those values, believe,
那些深深关心自己传统的人们，那些不想在传统价值上妥协的人们，他们相信，
through the malleability of the technology of democracy and the malleability and synthetic capability of the technology of Islam,
通过民主这个技术机制的可塑性和伊斯兰这个技术机制的可塑性和整合性，
that these two ideas can work together.
这两种观念能够融合在一起。
Now what would that look like? What does it mean to say that there's an Islamic democracy?
那将会是怎样的情景？“伊斯兰民主”这个词汇意味着什么？
Well, one thing is, it's not going to look identical to democracy as we know it in the United States.
有一点是，它不会和我们所熟知的美国的民主所相同。
That may be a good thing, in light of some of the criticisms we've heard today -- for example, in the regulatory context -- of what democracy produces.
这也许是一个好事，比如，我们现在的民主制度，我们已经听到许多批评的声音。
It will also not look exactly the way either the people in this room, or Muslims out in the rest of the world
它也不会跟在座的各位、或者外面世界的穆斯林，
I don't mean to imply there aren't Muslims here, there probably are -- conceptualize Islam.
我的意思并不是在座的没有穆斯林，其实很可能是有的--所想象的穆斯林不一样。
It will be transformative of Islam as well.
它也会改变伊斯兰教。
And as a result of this convergence, this synthetic attempt to make sense of these two ideas together,
这种融合的结果是，这种试图融合这两种观念的尝试，
there's a real possibility that, instead of a clash of Islamic civilization -- if there is such a thing
结果很可能不是一场伊斯兰文明--如果有这些东西存在的话，
and democratic civilization -- if there is such a thing -- we'll in fact have close compatibility.
和民主文明的冲突--如果有这些东西存在的话，反而会是很亲密的共存。
Now, I began with the war because it's the elephant in the room,
我从战争说起，是因为这是焦点话题，
and you can't pretend that there isn't about to be a war if you're talking about these issues.
当你正谈论这些话题的时候，你不可能假装战争离我们很远。
The war has tremendous risks for the model that I'm describing because it's very possible that as a consequence of a war,
战争对于我正在描述的这种模型有极大的威胁，因为很有可能的事情是，作为战争的结果，
many Muslims will conclude that the United States is not the kind of place that they want to emulate with respect to its forms of political government.
许多穆斯林会得出结论：美国不是他们想要在政治上效仿的对象。
On the other hand, there's a further possibility that many Americans, swept up in the fever of a war,
另一方面，一种很大的可能性是许多的美国人，对于战争抱有很强的赞同，
will say, and feel, and think that Islam is the enemy somehow -- that Islam ought to be construed as the enemy.
会谈论、感受和认为伊斯兰教在某种程度上是敌人-- 伊斯兰教应该被视作敌人。
And even though, for political tactical reasons, the president has been very, very good about saying that Islam is not the enemy,
而且即使如此，由于政治策略的原因，总统已经对如何声明伊斯兰教不是敌人驾轻就熟，
nonetheless, there's a natural impulse when one enters war to think of the other side as an enemy.
尽管如此，当被牵涉进战争时，一方很自然地会有将对方视作敌人的冲动。
And one furthermore has the impulse to generalize, as much as possible, in defining who that enemy is. So the risks are very great.
并有冲动去尽可能多的归纳和定义敌人到底是谁。所以，危机是很大的。
On the other hand, the capacities for positive results in the aftermath of a war are also not to be underestimated,
另一方面，战后产生积极影响的可能也不应当被低估，
even by, and I would say especially by, people who are deeply skeptical about whether we should go to war in the first place.
尤其对那些开始对是否开战持有保留观点的人们所低估。
Those who oppose the war ought to realize that if a war happens,
那些反对战争的人应该意识到，一旦战争发生了，
it cannot be the right strategy, either pragmatically, or spiritually, or morally, to say after the war,
当战争过后，不管是实际的、精神层面的或者道德层面的，都不可以这么说，
"Well, let's let it all run itself out, and play out however it wants to play out, because we opposed the war in the first place."
“好吧，让他们自己来做主吧，他们现在可以想怎样就怎样了，因为我们从一开始就反对战争。”
That's not the way human circumstances operate.
这不是人类环境运行的规律。
You face the circumstances you have in front of you and you go forward.
你应该正视眼前的局面，然后去处理它。
Well, what I'm here to say then is, for people who are skeptical about the war,
那么，我接下来想说的是，对于那些对战争持保留态度的人，
it's especially important to recognize that in the aftermath of the war
有一点极其重要，就是意识到战争以后，
there is a possibility for the government of the United States and the Muslim peoples with whom it interacts
美国政府有可能和那些和他们接触的穆斯林人们
to create real forms of government that are truly democratic and also truly Islamic.
创造一个真正民主，真正伊斯兰的政治管理体系。
And it is crucial -- it is crucial in a practical, activist way
而且这是至关重要的，从实事求是、活跃的角度来看，
for people who care about these issues to make sure that within the technology of democracy, in this system,
对于那些真正关心这些事的人，在民主科技下，在这个体系里，
they exercise their preferences, their choices and their voices to encourage that outcome.
他们行使他们的喜好、选择和声音，去促进那发展成果，
That's a hopeful message, but it's a message that's hopeful only if you understand it as incurring serious obligation for all of us.
这是给人以希望的信息，但只有你理解了它，它才会给人以希望，同时我们也会承受艰巨的职责。
And I think that we are capable of taking on that obligation, but only if we put what we can into it.
而且我认为我们有能力承担这种职责，但是前提是我们倾尽所能。
And if we do, then I don't think that the hope will be unwarranted altogether. Thanks.
如果我们这样做的话，我不认为希望会落空。谢谢。