听力文本

Will these revolutions be whole like through the transitions to democracy or be overtaken by military or extremists of all kinds?
这些革命是否能引领国家向民主过渡,它们的胜利果实会不会被军方或者各种极端分子攫取？
We cannot tell.
我们无法预测。
Same works for the Western sector, where you can see all of these excited young people protesting around the world,
发生在西方社会的抗议也是如此，有很多激愤的年轻人四处抗议，
occupying this, occupying that.
一会儿占领这个，一会儿占领那个。
Are they going to become the world wave?
他们会引领世界的潮流吗？
Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm,
他们是会用自己的能力、热情和策略，
and their strategy to find what they really want and push for the reform, or will they just stay complaining about the endless list of the things they hate?
去追寻理想，推动改革还是会继续抱怨他们憎恨的无数现象？
This is the difference between two towns.
这两者有云泥之别。
Now, what the statistics have?
数据显示出什么样的发展趋势呢？
My friend's book, Maria Stephan's book,
我的朋友Maria Stephan的书，
talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,
探讨了与暴力和非暴力斗争有关的大量问题，
and there are some shocking data.
也包含着一些惊人的数据。
If you look at the last 35 years and different social transitions from dictatorship to democracy,
过去35年中在不同的国家一共发生了67次，
you will see that out of 67 different cases,
从独裁到民主的社会变革，
in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle which was the key power.
其中有50次是通过非暴力斗争实现的，因此，非暴力斗争能起到非常关键的作用。
This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon.
从这个角度来看，当今世界正在发生的事情值得关注。
This is one more reason to look at the Generation Epsilon,
从这个角度来看，年轻一代值得关注，
enough for me to give them credit and hope that they will find their skills and their courage to use the nonviolent struggle nd thus fix at least a part of the mess our generation is making in this world.
我相信他们有希望用自己的能力和勇气通过非暴力斗争解决一部分我们这代人给世界带来的问题。
Thank you.
谢谢。

演讲介绍

2011年，团结一心的人民掀起了一场又一场非凡的抵抗运动，反抗的火焰从阿拉伯之春蔓延到了整个世界。这种反抗运动为何如此有效？（2000年曾在塞尔维亚领导过推翻米洛舍维奇的非暴力抵抗运动的）Srdja Popovic介绍了组织此类活动所需的策略、技能和工具。